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Military campaign of 2023
Russia is gathering forces for a new offensive in Ukraine. She prepares 200 thousand "fresh" soldiers. Putin will go to Minsk for military support. A large -scale operation will begin in February 2023. Mikhail Prutula , Alexander Demchenko , Jan Matveev , about these stable forecasts - Military experts. The program "Faces to the event" Elena Rykovtseva is conducting.
Video version of the program
Elena Rykovtseva: Our events are directed forward today, into the future is the 2023 Winter Military Campaign. There are many forecasts that Russia is preparing for the offensive. And also not such a long -distance event - this is Monday. We will discuss why Vladimir Putin personally goes to Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. But we’ll still return a day ago, to our air about the hypothetical debates of Girkin and Solovyov, which, of course, did not take place. After the end of our broadcast on the air of Vladimir Solovyov, reasons for the rejection of these debate were raised.
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0:00 0:01:52Elena Rykovtseva: "Our people do not go to a bakery in a taxi." As for everything else, then the logic is not very clear: if such a insignificance, why run into it, advertise it on its air, and when after this advertisement he offers you a debate, say that "you are nobody to call you in any way"? Igor Strelkov (Girkin) answered in his telegram that "you are a rubber product number two, everything will end for you with Israel, where your family lives, and I will not go anywhere, I will defend my homeland." The exchange of courtesy is understandable.
Girkin acts as a critic of the Kremlin, and at the same time acts in the paradigm that is invented in the Kremlin
My colleague Alexander Demchenko is in touch with us, "Donbass. Realities." Have you expected some other outcome from this "fight"?
Alexander Demchenko: At all stages of Girkin’s history, when he fell into a public plane after 2014, after the capture of Slavyansk and all actions in the Donbass, all kinds of discussions constantly arise: then suddenly there is some kind of noise, someone is discussing him ... Now they are talking about him, albeit negatively, but still mention him, although they are trying not to even remember about some people. The discussion is always dual: either he is really such an oppositionist, they don’t like him or are afraid of him somewhere in the Kremlin, he is afraid of the Kremlin propagandists he is an enemy, or in fact it is such a conceived game, a conceived scenario when Girkin acts, on the one hand, made by the opposition, the Kremlin critic, and on the other hand acts absolutely in the paradigm that is invented in the Kremlin.
He still tried to support the so -called "special military operation", went to Ukraine allegedly to fight, but did not hit , as usual. We do not know how to answer the question of what role he plays. And from Ukraine it looks like we are sitting, looking at all this: one bad guy talks to another bad guy.
Elena Rykovtseva: He wants to call, but does not want to talk.
Alexander Demchenko: He does not want and does not want to do what to do.
Elena Rykovtseva: In short, the debate did not take place, no one doubted this, our experts also doubted yesterday, although the person, of course, is curious, no one argues with this either.
We cross on Monday. December 19 was announced by the day of the visit of Vladimir Putin to Minsk. The man abandoned the "direct line", from the press conference, from the message to the Federal Assembly , and he will still go to Minsk. With us, Mikhail Prutula , a military expert. Why do you think he personally is there? I would sit at home: winter, cold, you don’t go anywhere, why come to Lukashenko? What does he want from him?
Mikhail Prutula: There are at least three answers to this serious question. The first option: he will celebrate Hanukkah. The second option: he will celebrate Nikolai with Lukashenko. The third option: a sacred date for both of these wonderful characters is nearing, which will take place after 11 days, on December 30, 2022 - a centenary of the late Soviet Union. Putin loves different sacred dates very much, and this date for him is supercarable. We remember his words that for him the largest tragedy of the twentieth century was the destruction of the USSR. The centenary of his idol is very important for him. Most likely, he will celebrate it with some blows to the infrastructure of Ukraine, or maybe they together with Lukashenko will come up with some other muck. For example, they will bring the body of Yanukovych from Rostov, there for three somewhere in the Belovezhskaya Pushcha, for example, the act on the denunciation of the Belovezhsky agreements of 1991 and that the Soviet Union will be reanimated, pulled out of the Mausoleum, and will be the USSR 2.0. I would not exclude this option either, because this is the logic of thoughts of this person.
Elena Rykovtseva: I like all forecasts, especially St. Nicholas with Koloka - of course, the sweetest thing, in the company of the future president of Belarus, as his dad thinks. As for bringing Yanukovych’s body, it does not think that this body is somehow reliably hidden? After all, the Russian Federation could play on it all these years: but here is a legal president, here it was a coup. But for some reason she is in no hurry to put him to the public, does not promote him, does not PR. Once, a hundred years ago they released a press conference, and that’s all, buried. Why?
The sacred date for Putin and Lukashenko is near - a centenary of the late Soviet Union
Mikhail Prutula: They brought this body to Belarus, just when the invasion of Ukraine began. I did not suck this plan from my finger - this is real. I understand how these people think what they are striving for. Unfortunately, they most likely have such thoughts that Putin will break Lukashenko on such an option. But Yanukovych simply no one will ask what they will say to him, he will do. I think they have nothing more to talk about.
Elena Rykovtseva: In order to force Lukashenko to an offensive military union, does a personal presence need, or is it solved at the level of chiefs, General Stans?
Mikhail Prutula: in Belarus, many positions are held by Russian citizens, officers of the Russian special services. Lukashenko, in principle, also does not ask about anything. Belarus is a country occupied by Russian troops, which do everything they want there, take as many weapons as they want. The only thing is that the problem is that the Belarusian army is practically no as such. Therefore, the participation of the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine can only be in the form of Belarusian flags, and that’s all. The second reason: Russians will never trust Belarusians, especially in such an important matter as the war in Ukraine. The Russians will simply use the territory of Belarus as a bridgehead, launch new parties of freshly mobile citizens of the Russian Federation from it.
Elena Rykovtseva: We will see the plot now. Over the last day, a whole complex of forecasts about the winter Russian offensive fell out.
Elena Rykovtseva: I now realized why I did not know anything about Yanukovych in Minsk in March this year: because there were no official evidence from either the Belarusian or the Russian side. There was information from Ukrainian intelligence, which was published by Ukrainian Pravda: "The Russian Federation delivered Yanukovych to Minsk to declare it with the legitimate president of Ukraine." Neither photographs nor the official chronicle, only Flightradar recorded that his plane flew to Minsk, flew from Minsk. No one fixed the body itself. If they wanted to make him a legitimate president, probably, would they show it?
The problem is that there is practically no Belarusian army as such
Mikhail Prutula: Putin wanted to take Kiev in three days, just to these three days he was brought. Since I did not take in three days, I fell off the need for it, they took it back to where it is stored.
Elena Rykovtseva: Now everything falls into place, that is, they would show him only in a situation where he would really come in handy.
Mikhail Prutula: I think Yanukovych is also not very pleasant to be in such a role. But this is his business.
Elena Rykovtseva: We will not pity him. Jan Matveev , you all, of course, read and analyzed it all too. What do you associate with the simultaneous appearance of volleys of such forecasts: winter, Russia triumphs and goes on the offensive in late February - in March?
Jan Matveev: It is clear that now some pause is in hostilities, everyone is thinking what will happen next. In addition, all analysts see that Russia has carried out mobilization, has collected a fairly significant number of soldiers. Everyone argues what with these soldiers, how they will be used. Putin with all his appearance shows that he is going to continue the war, he wants to destroy Ukraine, and for this you need to further attack. With the position that is now, Putin will not achieve his goals, hence a completely logical assumption. Plus, nevertheless, the Russian military-industrial complex is not destroyed, it produces something, the Russian army is still a serious threat, we can expect some attacks from it.
All the time there are conversations, rumors about the attack from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Ukrainian sources said several times that the offensive would begin almost tomorrow. I believe that this is still unlikely, due to objective factors. Yes, there is Vladimir Putin, who can make a decision, based not from logic, but from his own desires, views and so on. Anything can happen here: he will order to advance from Belarus through the swamp, and they will go through the swamp to knead the dirt and die. According to military logic, the offensive is very difficult there, especially in winter. We saw this at the beginning of the war, when the Russian troops suffered, in fact, the defeat near Kiev just largely due to problems with logistics: few roads, forests, swamps, to move hard, and hard to deploy forces. Russian troops could not take advantage of their advantage, which they had at the beginning of the invasion, and now they most likely will not have this advantage.
The second important factor: nevertheless, Russia spent a lot of weapons, equipment, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery for a war that has been going on for the 11th month, and it is impossible to quickly replenish this. The Russian military -industrial complex does this, but slowly. Now it is not possible to qualitatively arm a solid group that could really attack and achieve any significant goals, to advance one hundred kilometers ahead. If we talk about some very minimal offenses, then probably yes, but they do not make sense, because they do not achieve any strategic goals. Therefore, in my opinion, it is very unlikely that the Russian army organizes some large-scale offensive this winter. I think they will keep this pause while they can continue to slowly accumulate everything that you can, buy Iranian weapons, still, build their own, arm the soldier. All this is done slowly, they will do it all winter, and in the spring, perhaps, something will change.
It is very unlikely that the Russian army organizes a large -scale offensive this winter
Elena Rykovtseva: Alexander, what do you think about this bouquet of forecasts that we received literally in a day?
Alexander Demchenko: I absolutely agree with Mikhail. The Belarusian forces, which are now, are not enough, even if Lukashenko suddenly decides to take part in the war and invade Ukraine. We can hypothetically imagine that they will not have a very high morale. It seems to me that there propaganda did not process people like that, as it could happen to the Russian military and mobilized. Another thing is that a certain number of Russian citizens who fell under mobilization are burned there, technology is distorted. I talked with one of the military less than a week ago, who came to the dismissal of the places where the fighting took place, and he talked about several options for the development of events.
Indeed, now there is no strength for this. In order to concentrate a sufficient group from the north of Ukraine to organize a great invasion, you need at least another month, or even two. Often enters the information environment when something is happening, and now it appears, under the flag of a third country. For example, it can be the Russian military who will participate in this invasion, diluted by some number of Belarusian military, allied forces, but as if all this is happening under the command of Belarus, Lukashenko.
Talk that will, for example, will storm Kyiv ... The situation of Ukraine was much worse from the point of view of the readiness of the army and ensuring the group in February and March 2022, and now, of course, the preparation of the fortifications and the understanding of where this offensive will come from will be an order of magnitude better, and the forces that may come, will be approximately the same as in February-March. And even the civilian population of Kyiv and the region already survived the first wave, and everyone will be more or less ready for this. It is not entirely clear what they are counting on: it seems to me that it is almost impossible to storm Kyiv in this situation.
We see the battles that have been going on around Bakhmut for several months. The forces are transferred there, the artillery, which was at the Russian group at the Donbass Theater of military operations, proudly covered with aviation, artillery, assault groups of PMC Wagner, Russian troops constantly go there, but cannot take it. If the Kremlin is calculated at this stage with the same development of events as now that they really will be able to sooner or later make the capture or environment of Kyiv, then this is very doubtful even from the point of view of simple logic and common sense.
There is still constantly talking that this will be an attempt to somehow cut the supply paths, cut off Ukraine from the supply of Western weapons. Also a rather dubious option. There are only three roads connecting, passing across the boundaries, going south through which you can transfer troops. It is doubtful to me that they will not get up in the same road columns as it was in February-March 2022, when a full-scale invasion began.
It is almost impossible to storm Kyiv in this situation
Elena Rykovtseva: Yesterday we were already starting to discuss an interview with Valery Zaluzhny, who commands the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this interview, forecasts were just sounding that the Russian army is preparing this offensive. In particular, one of the signs of this Valery Zaluzhny sees a new set, as he says, “fresh” soldiers, 200 thousand: there is no need to underestimate them, he says, even if you think that they are not motivated, they will still fight. Yesterday evening, Alexei Armnotovich, a well -known commentator at what was happening at the front, spoke about these comments Valery Zaluzhny. We will now see the plot about this.
Continuation of the discussion, watch the video