Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online December 19
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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19:57 United Russia has prepared amendments restricting the remote work of some Russians from abroad. The list of specialties will be determined by the government. reporters about this . told Andrei Isaev, deputy head of the United Russia faction in the State Duma,
“We have prepared a version [of the bill] according to which persons who are not residents of the Russian Federation in accordance with tax legislation, that is, are abroad, will not be allowed to conclude a contract on remote work or an additional agreement to an employment contract. We are talking about a list of specialties, which will be determined by the government of the Russian Federation,” the deputy said.
The preparation of such a bill became known last week. It is directed against Russians who have left, lost their Russian tax residency, but continue to work for Russian companies.
According to the Nestka publication, the list of professions that will be affected by the law may include information security workers, officials, and part of the transport industry. The Telegram channel of Ksenia Sobchak noted that the law will also apply to persons who have access to state secrets and information sensitive to the state.
18:55 The EU countries have agreed on a gas price ceiling of 180 euros per 1 MWh, which is less than $2,000 per thousand cubic meters.
17:01 Vladimir Putin, by his order, recommended that the authorities of the Moscow region, Crimea and Sevastopol give free land plots to the military who distinguished themselves in the military special operation (marked with state awards) and the families of the victims. The draft document was compiled by the Ministry of Defense.
14:39 Dmitry Peskov called "stupid and unfounded" publications that Vladimir Putin is going to Minsk today for negotiations with Alexander Lukashenko in order to resolve the issue of Belarus joining the "special operation". In the meantime, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in the capital of the union state.
14:35 The Federal Customs Service predicts that trade with China will grow by a quarter year-on-year in 2022, to $170 billion. Imports of cars and special equipment from China to Russia grew by 1.5 times in 11 months of the year. Including imported 106 thousand Chinese cars.
14:31 The dollar and euro rates are growing - at 14:30 Moscow time, 67 rubles and 71 rubles, respectively.
13:32 The Ministry of Economic Development again improved the assessment of the dynamics of Russian GDP - in January-October it fell by 1.9%, not 2.1%. The Ministry has not yet changed the official forecast for 2022 — minus 2.9% this year, minus 0.8% in 2023 and an increase of 2.6% in 2024 and 2025.
In August, it predicted a fall in GDP for the year by 4.2%, in May - by 7.8%.
12:03 Advisor to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak wrote in The New York Times that Russia is preparing infantry units for a winter offensive and mass attacks in the spirit of World War II. Russia's goal is to turn the tide in its favor, despite a series of tactical defeats. Podolyak urged the West to take this threat into account when planning arms supplies to Ukraine
The publication sees this, as well as other statements by Ukrainian officials (for example, about a new offensive against Kyiv), as a coordinated campaign designed to prevent the weakening of the flow of Western aid.
11:52 The demand of Russians for overseas real estate has more than doubled year on year, and the highest peak was not at the beginning of the war, but at mobilization, writes Kommersant . The main demand falls on Turkey and the most loyal to the Russians with the money of the United Arab Emirates.
The concept of "house by the sea" is giving way to permanent residence: 75% buy property for the purpose of moving, compared to 55% last year. In Europe, countries with the option of a residence permit with or without investment are popular - Serbia, Montenegro, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, Bulgaria. Market participants expect a decline in demand only if the ruble depreciates significantly.
11:39 The governor of the Belgorod region Vyacheslav Gladkov criticized the system of sms-alerts about the raids: according to reports from the field, the day before, in a number of cases, the notification was received after the completion of the shelling of Belgorod from the Ukrainian side. According to him, the effectiveness of messages is generally low, they are transmitted to operators for a long time, and "the mass dissemination of the need to go to cover caused more panic and additional problems." Mailing sms will be supplemented with notifications on the speakerphone.
The main thing for the night and morning
- The New York Times released a huge investigation into the reasons for the defeats of the Russian army in Ukraine and came to the conclusion that a chain of vicious planning and hatred moods aggravated the incompetence and systemic corruption in the Armed Forces, whose command sold the “Potemkin villages” built for huge money to the leadership. But it all started personally with Vladimir Putin, whose long isolation during the pandemic allowed him to be confident in his own infallibility and historical role. We have summarized the main points .
- The Russian economy is coming to the end of 2022 in a much better shape than the pessimists predicted in the spring, but this does not mean that the protracted crisis gives any reason for optimism. Economists at the largest Russian investment banks pointed out to The Bell four new warning signs that have appeared in the Russian economy in recent months.
- The main question on which the fate of the entire crypto market now depends is whether the collapse of a competitor, FTX, will spread to the Binance crypto exchange (the most popular in Russia). What is happening and the prospects of the key player in the crypto market is devoted to The Bell techno-mailing .
- The dollar at the beginning of trading on the Moscow Exchange on Monday for the first time since the end of May rose above 65 rubles. About why the ruble is getting cheaper and whether to wait for its new strengthening, The Bell talked here .
- On the night of Monday, the Russian Armed Forces launched blows with kamikaze drones "Geran" on objects in Kyiv and the region, they were confirmed by the Ukrainian side. Donetsk was fired on from the Ukrainian side by Grads, were recorded hits on the hospital . The number of people injured in the shelling of Belgorod and the region from Ukraine increased to 10 over the weekend , one person died.
- The government commission refused the structure of the co-owner of Pharmstandard, Viktor Kharitonin, to purchase the largest asset of the Austrian Mondi in Russia - the Syktyvkar timber industry complex, RBC learned. It seems that the authorities were not satisfied with the too high price - about $1.5 billion.
- The French L'Occitane was not satisfied with the change of the name transferred to the management, but left as a pledge of the Russian chain to the Cyrillic one. It will be renamed again , to SoBeautiful, which threatens to lose 15% of loyal customers.
- The energy crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already cost Europe $1 trillion, including state subsidies, high-priced energy purchases and loss of business with the population, and this is just the beginning, writes Bloomberg . Experts predict that tensions with LNG will continue until 2026, and even small disturbances in this market will threaten the EU economy not just with a recession, but with deep failures.
- Elon Musk continues to stir up interest in what is happening on Twitter. He asked users if he should step down as the head of the company, and promised to listen to the voice of the people. More than half of those who voted “yes”, which is not surprising: accusations that, having played with Twitter, the billionaire abandoned Tesla and betrayed the interests of shareholders, are becoming louder.