The cost of war in Ukraine. Online December 22

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.

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21:43 The Associated Press has discovered at least 10,300 new graves in occupied Mariupol and its environs. The graves were discovered using satellite imagery and drone footage. According to the publication, the cemetery was expanded by more than 51.5 thousand square meters. On average, there is one grave for every 6 square meters. There are also several mass graves, the publication points out.

21:19 Vladimir Putin forbade Gazprom to buy gas from joint ventures with the German Wintershall Dea and the Austrian OMV for more than the price set by the authorities.

Vladimir Putin signed a decree that prohibits Gazprom and its affiliates from fulfilling obligations to foreign entities associated with "unfriendly" countries.

The decree "On the application of special economic measures in the field of gas supplies in connection with the unfriendly actions of certain foreign states and international organizations" was published on the portal of legal information. It follows from the document that until October 1, 2023, Gazprom is prohibited from paying at a price higher than that set by the government:

• gas supplies from areas of the Achimov deposits of the Urengoy oil and gas condensate field;
• production-related services in areas of the Achimov deposits;
• gas supplies from areas of the Yuzhno-Russkoye field.

The development of several sections of the Achimov deposits is being carried out by a joint venture between Gazprom's subsidiaries and Wintershall Dea GmbH. The Yuzhno-Russkoye gas field is being developed by OJSC Severneftegazprom, whose shareholder, along with Gazprom, is OMV AG (25%).

20:33 The New York Times identified more than 20 Russian soldiers involved in the killings in Bucha

The investigation is based on the analysis of street camera recordings, radio intercepts and interviews with eyewitnesses. Data on calls from mobile phones taken by Russian soldiers from Ukrainians also helped to establish identities. Part of the documentation remained due to a hasty retreat.

The NYT named more than 20 military personnel from the 234th Airborne Assault Regiment stationed in Pskov as responsible for the killings of civilians in Bucha, and also identified 36 victims on Yablonskaya Street. Most of those killed were civilians.

As the journalists explain, several call signs appeared in the conversations of the military: "Astra", "Vial" and "Uranus". They, as the investigators found out, belonged to the commanders of the battalion tactical groups of the 234th regiment and its commander Artem Gorodilov. The publication cites the names of dozens more servicemen who visited Bucha.

Investigators emphasize that the evidence they have collected proves that the killings in Bucha were not an accident, but part of a plan.

19:58 Vladimir Putin spoke at the press conference after the meeting of the State Council.

President's Key Statements:

• Russia went through this year "quite confidently." The current situation will not interfere with the implementation of plans for the future, and everything related to the “special operation” is a forced and necessary measure.
• Despite the predicted collapses and devastation, there is nothing like this in Russia. The performance is much better than in many G20 countries. The fact that the market is financially stable did not fall from the sky, but the result of the work of the government.
• Events are developing very dynamically, so it was difficult to fix the results and specific plans for the near future. The address to the Federal Assembly will take place early next year.
• Moscow does not refuse negotiations with Kiev.
• Russia can increase the pace of arms production, while the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has reset to zero or is rapidly moving towards it. The resources of the NATO countries have not been exhausted, but Kyiv is receiving weapons from the former Warsaw Pact countries, and it is almost over.
• Patriot air defense systems are outdated, worse than the S-300, and there is an antidote for them. But their delivery to Ukraine will lead to a prolongation of the conflict.
• Russia's goal is not to spin the flywheel of a military conflict, but to end the war (started in 2014). But the intensification of hostilities will lead to unjustified losses, "the chicken is pecking grain by grain."
• Foreign investment must be replaced by domestic financing.
• Decree on retaliatory measures to the oil price ceiling will be signed on Monday-Tuesday.
• The federal budget deficit should fall to 0.8% of GDP by 2025. The authorities will not allow "scattering money left and right." Inflation at the end of this year will slightly exceed 12%, GDP decline - about 2.5%, unemployment - 3.8%.

18:47 The United States has expanded sanctions against Russian companies. The list includes 10 legal entities:

• Concern "Morinformsistema-Agat";
• Central Research Institute of Structural Materials. Gorynina;
• battery "Rigel";
• Central Research Institute of Shipbuilding;
• NGO "Aurora";
• Central Research Institute "Electropribor";
• JSC "Obukhovskoye";
• "Marine navigation systems";
• Institute of Oceanology. Shirshov;
• "Technopol".

17:15 Vladimir Putin allowed the government to issue temporary permits for transactions with sanctioned persons, the ban on transactions with which was introduced in early May.

16:36 The course of the war in Ukraine is likely to change in the coming months, writes The New York Times, citing forecasts by US officials. In their opinion, Russian troops will be more focused on holding the lands already occupied than on the offensive. Therefore, it will become more difficult for Ukraine to return its territories, the publication explains. These circumstances make the most likely scenario a stalemate in which neither side can move forward despite intense fighting.

12:46 Ukraine has gained a military advantage comparable to having tactical nuclear weapons thanks to an artificial intelligence platform based on US technology. This was written by The Washington Post correspondent, who was first shown the operation of the system.

• We are talking about the battlefield control system developed by the American Palantir (comparison with nuclear weapons belongs to its CEO Alex Karp). The company's developers are working in Kiev, where the journalist was shown its tactical reconnaissance and strike circuit (receiving, selecting and integrating data - automated selection and selection of targets - selection of means of destruction - control of the result by drones).
• According to WP, the system was involved in the September offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region and during the offensive in Kherson. There, she largely removed the "fog of war" thanks to accurate and fast information about the deployment and maneuvers of Russian troops. Almost all the precision strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the ammunition depots and headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces are the result of the system’s operation, the newspaper’s interlocutors say.
• The functionality available in Ukraine is limited to modern field detection tools and sensors with sensitive technologies. But “commercial” data (including Maxar optical satellite photos, ICEYE radar and even photos of Russian technology uploaded by “sympathizers”) are integrated entirely through the MetaConstellation service. The system at the disposal of the United States is devoid of restrictions, so “their opponents will face an unimaginably more difficult challenge if they want to attack, for example, Taiwan,” the newspaper notes.
• There is an operational-strategic level of the system, which controls NATO from outside Ukraine. It includes all sources of information, ranging from low-resolution satellite imagery to "the most secret intelligence available to the West." This system can issue Ukrainian target designation without leaking the original data.
• The key element of the lower level is Starlink terminals. Through them, the primary data is transmitted to the system, and tactical information and calculations for firing are received back. It should be noted that this week there was information about the creation in Russia of a direction finder of the Starlink Borshchevik terminals that is accurate enough for an artillery strike.
• The Russian army has attempts to create something similar on open satellite data and Chinese drones, but they are immeasurably inferior to the capabilities of Ukraine, writes WP.
• “Ingenuity, the will to win, and state-of-the-art technology have given the Ukrainian Armed Forces a decisive advantage,” the newspaper quotes the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. “Already now we see how they will fight - and win - in the next decades.”

11:27 Back in March, Yandex registered the Beyond ML holding in Armenia, which owns a dozen companies in the field of machine learning around the world, found out . RTVI

The business is registered with Yandex top managers Maxim Zagrebin and Dmitry Stepanov, the resource writes, and both, having announced their departure from the company in February, did not really leave it. Employees of the company were told that Beyond ML was designed to mitigate country risk and ensure the continued operation of Yandex in Europe and the United States. The Yandex press service called the project an "internal experiment".

It is noteworthy that Beyond ML is not mentioned in the list of subsidiaries of Yandex NV, the parent company of Yandex. The Bell wrote in detail about the upcoming complex division of Yandex into Russian and foreign businesses. The latter will be developed by the founder of the company, Arkady Volozh, based on Yandex NV, while the Russian one will be managed by Alexei Kudrin and management.

Thus, Beyond ML, being formally independent, looks like a foreign project that remains with the Russian Yandex after the division. Whether he will go to the structures of Volozh and his team is still an unresolved issue, writes RTVI, close to the leadership of Yandex.

10:26 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Russian peacekeepers of not fulfilling their obligations to control the Lachin corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh, which, according to him, is being blocked by Azerbaijani forces. “Of course, this is due to the actions of Azerbaijan, but this does not change the meaning. This is the key meaning of the presence of Russian peacekeepers - not to allow illegal actions and keep the Lachin corridor under control,” Pashinyan said.

• The situation in the corridor connecting the main territory of Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh escalated on December 12, when some “eco-activists” blocked the only road Stepanakert-Goris. Azerbaijan blamed the Russian peacekeepers for this, the Russian Foreign Ministry resolutely denied these accusations. The Armenian media write about the humanitarian crisis in the region with a population of 120,000 and the beginning of food shortages.
• In November, Pashinyan refused to sign the declaration of the CSTO Council following the Yerevan summit, pointing out the lack of a political assessment of Azerbaijan's actions and that Armenia's membership in the CSTO did not ensure the reaction of the military alliance to "aggression". This week, the CSTO Secretary General stated that the issue of the Lachin corridor is outside his area of ​​responsibility.
• According to Kommersant , Armenia's exit from the union is brewing. And the Carnegie Center, which is closed in Russia , believes that Russia does not have a good game on the issue of the corridor: any active intervention of peacekeepers will block it and quarrel between Moscow and Baku in the context of the war in Ukraine and the growing influence of Turkey in the Transcaucasus. Therefore, Moscow is still inactive.

10:09 Germany increased electricity generation at coal-fired power plants by 13% compared to last year, writes Bloomberg. Now coal-fired generation provides more than a third of the country's needs - it is the only one with such a reserve of coal capacities in the EU. The German authorities do not abandon the idea to close all coal thermal power plants by 2030, but they will remain in reserve until the end of 2024, the agency notes.

9:27 Director Timur Bekmambetov, who successfully works in Hollywood and back in March condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sold his Russian studio Bazelevs to its general producer Lala Rustamova and commercial director Timur Asadov, RBC learned . According to management, the deal was commercial and cost the studio's entire 2022 revenue. The rights to Russian-language content, including the Yolka franchise, will remain with the Russian company, but it will have to change its brand.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Joe Biden and addressed Congress during his one-day visit to the United States. So far, his trip to Washington has not brought any surprises. All events were announced by the White House in advance. In particular, as expected, the United States approved a new $1.85 billion military aid package for Ukraine, including the supply of Patriot air defense systems. And Zelensky thanked Washington for its support and expressed the hope that it will continue in the future.
• During the shelling of a hotel on the outskirts of Donetsk, was wounded the former head of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, . He was wounded in the back, hospitalized, but there is no threat to life. also wounded during the shelling was DPR Prime Minister Vitaly Khotsenko . According to some reports , Rogozin celebrated his birthday in a restaurant at the hotel. He turned 59 yesterday. the target of the shelling Khotsenko is said to be : shelling with precision weapons began 10 minutes after his arrival at the restaurant.
• The ruble continued to fall on Thursday: the dollar is above 72 rubles, the euro is more expensive than 76 rubles. What is behind the collapse of the Russian currency and whether to wait for its strengthening, we told yesterday.
• Following developers , retailers and MTS-Bank, Russian restaurateurs also gathered on the UAE market. According to Kommersant, the Tigrus restaurant holding intends to open three of its Osteria Mario and Shvili establishments in Dubai next spring, and 27 more within five years. Experts are skeptical of the idea: the market is too complex and competitive.
• The American Kellogg (manufacturer of Pringles chips, the supply of which to Russia has been stopped) has agreed to sell its Russian business for the production of biscuits and ready-made breakfasts under the Lyubyatovo brand, Kommersant . learned The asset will be bought by the Chernogolovka group of companies, sources say. The deal is expected to close in early 2023.
• Nine months after the start of the “special operation,” the mood of the Russians “paradoxically” improved, writes RBC with reference to a study by the Institute of Psychology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The respondents became less happy, but they look to the future more positively. The share of those who believe that “our children will live better than us” and “Russians will be able to change their lives for the better” increased by 7–13 percentage points by November compared to the beginning of February. A typical optimist is a representative of the older generation from small towns and villages.
• in Moscow and the Moscow region due to heavy freezing rain are delayed or canceled More than 60 flights . The roads have turned into a skating rink, a “yellow” level of weather danger has been declared.
• A documentary about Navalny's poisoning produced by HBO Max and CNN has been shortlisted for the Oscars. The director of the film, Daniel Roer, filmed the politician from the moment he came out of a coma in a Berlin clinic until he returned to Russia. The Oscars will take place on March 12.

Continued online December 22. Read the previous one here .