"Putin Lukashenko could say:" It's time, Sasha, and you! "Belarus and war

During the last visit of Vladimir Putin to Minsk, the actual President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that he "unconditionally supports Russia in everything." What in the near future Lukashenko can do, will he nevertheless enter the war with Ukraine on the side of the Kremlin and did he have at least some trump cards for bargaining with Putin? What is Belarus in general by the end of 2022?

Active coverage in the Russian and Belarusian media of permanent military teachings in Belarus with the transfer of new Russian equipment there should be considered as an element of the information and psychological operation, but in the future the threat of the use of the military group of the Russian Federation from the Belarusian territory is still preserved, the Center for Combating Determination of Discovormation under the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said on December 23.

When Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin met in Minsk for negotiations on December 19, they gave a joint press conference, at which they paid great attention to the topic of the “comprehensive support of Russia by Belarus”, especially against the backdrop of Western sanctions caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine. Alexander Lukashenko, in particular, said: "You know: we are together with coagressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet!"

The issues of military policy, in particular the topic of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the prospects of possible joining Belarus, were almost not affected at a press conference. However, Vladimir Putin said that the two countries agreed to continue the practice of joint military exercises. Alexander Lukashenko added that the army of Belarus is preparing aircraft and crews to launch “specific ammunition” and that Russia handed Belarus to the S-400 and Iskander missile systems, which are already put on combat duty.

Russian soldier at the training at the training ground in Belarus. December 20, 2022

A few days before, Lukashenko once again accused Ukraine of preparing an attack on Belarus (Ukraine, of course, rejected these wild accusations) and substantiated the need to increase the grouping of Russian troops in his country by "exacerbation on the western borders of the Union State."

In early December, Lukashenko, at a meeting with the Minister of Defense of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, said that the Russian and Belarusian military were preparing "as a single group, a single army." On December 13, in Belarus, by order of Lukashenko, another “sudden” check of the combat readiness of the country's armed forces began .

In general, Ukrainian intelligence notes the constant transfer of Russian soldiers and military equipment to Belarus, but states that at the moment he does not see a direct threat to the offensive by Belarus. On December 19, it became known that the Armed Forces of Ukraine strengthen the border with Belarus against the backdrop of a possible attack of Russian troops from the territory of this country.

The fact that Alexander Lukashenko can be undertaken in the near future, and the political scientist, the observer of the Belarusian service of the RS Yuri Drakrust: about the mood in the Belarusian society in an interview with Radio:

- Is there a feeling in Belarusian society today that the country and people were in an extremely lousy situation, on the eve of very formidable events? And I ask now only in the context of the war in Ukraine.

- Of course, yes. Because a new reality arose - the creation of a constant regional grouping of the troops of Belarus and Russia. In February-March, in Belarus, approximately 30 thousand Russian troops were based, who began an attack on Kyiv from there, but then most of them left the Belarusian territory, literally a thousand people remained, according to Ukrainian intelligence, including. But in October, when Lukashenko announced that this constant group is being created, another 9-10 thousand arrived. Apparently, they are sitting at Belarusian training grounds, they are trained, these are Russian mobilized mainly. In the summer there was one thousand, but there were ten - and this feeling already, as they say, causes a "chill on the back."

All men are called to the military enlistment offices and forced to sign some papers

Now in Belarus there are constant military exercises, a cascade, they actually do not stop. In addition, the so-called reconciliation of military documents was carried out throughout the country, that is, all men are called to the military enlistment offices and forced to sign some papers. This is not yet mobilization - but this is preparation for mobilization. Perhaps not to the inevitable, perhaps the Belarusian authorities reasoned like this: "Here in Russia with this mess, and mobilization there passed accordingly, and we will do everything professionally, if necessary." It all acts on people. And among other things, the factor that we talked about many times acts - do not want, in general, Belarusians to fight. Some of them can even support Russia's position in the war, but "we ourselves are not."

-And today someone can determine with one or another accuracy what mood in the Armed Forces of Belarus? If the order is given, it is clear which one, it will be fulfilled by all commanders, all officers, generals implicitly?

- All - no. However, I recently read an interview with one of the leaders of our opposition, a former military man, Lieutenant Colonel-Premier Valery Sahabler, and he was asked: "If an order is given, the army will be executed?" He replied: "Many will become, since this is the army, because it is discipline." He said: "Do not expect that the army will run away. It will not be." On the other hand, although this is very conditional, but I will refer to polls - I already said that in fact, more than 80 percent of Belarusians are firmly opposed that Belarus participated in this war, regardless of whether they like Russia's position or not. And the army is still a part of society, and if society is tuned like this, then the army will not have much enthusiasm.

To interview military people in a country like Belarus is "more expensive and more expensive for them"

You understand that to interrogate military people in a country like Belarus is "more expensive and more expensive for them." But there was another survey, and people simply asked: "If they send our Belarusian army to fight, how much will go?" 25 percent answered yes that they would fight. Everything else was - a refusal to answer or said that they would desert that they would hide in the bushes and even turn a weapon against Lukashenko. But 25 percent said they would go to the front. You can draw one conclusion: someone will fight. To say that everyone will scatter is not. But the mood will be very sour.

The exercises of the Russian Army in Belarus. November 21, 2022

- If we discuss the meeting of Putin and Lukashenko on December 19, as often happens, it is probably not what it was said, but what is not, at least officially for the public. After all, almost not a word was said about the war. What do you think, what a bargain was behind the scenes? Or maybe not bargaining, but an already set ultimatum?

- There were so many expectations and concerns related to this meeting, and she turned out to be literally defiantly vegetarian. As for the war, only, in my opinion, once Lukashenko somehow said so casually: "The proxy-warrior of the West with the hands of Ukraine." And all, as if there is no war and no one is fighting with anyone. What does this mean is difficult to say. The worst option is, of course, that Putin informed Lukashenko that Russian troops will soon go across the Belarusian border to Ukraine, and possibly added that, "it's time, Sasha, and you need to go to you." It is clear that this was not pronounced publicly, but it is possible. Because Putin came to Minsk for the first time in three years. All the previous times came to him Lukashenko. And before February 24, Putin did not come to Lukashenko. And, by the way, at first Shoigu flew to Minsk, then Lukashenko went to Moscow.

Maybe Putin so sweetened a bitter pill - "Well, here I myself came to you"

But, as we all remember, then many, and by the way, in the West, too, believed that Ukraine would quickly suffer a defeat, in three days, that for the army of the Russian Federation it is, so to speak, a "walk". But what this "walk" cost is now clear to everyone. And when and if Lukashenko now informs that the attack from its territory is again carried out even by the Russian army, he imagines that this will mean - including personally. And therefore, maybe Putin so sweetened a bitter pill - "Well, here I myself came to you." This is a possible option. But something else is possible-after all, this is not their last meeting, and tomorrow Lukashenko will suddenly come to Moscow again, and they may discuss something new there.

-In general, Alexander Lukashenko has at least some kind of maneuver field and for bargaining with the Kremlin, at least some of their own trump cards in the sleeve?

-He still controls the internal situation, to a large extent at least. Recently, in Belarus, they froze all prices on his orders and put in prison a dozen businessmen who still dared to raise them. The people, by the way, really liked how polls show. What, Putin ordered him to do this from Moscow? For some reason, I don't think so. When he appoints some chairman of the Krichevsky or Kobrinsky district executive committee, does he consult in the Kremlin on this subject? Obviously not. Yes, he practically lost military sovereignty, in the sense that Russians can do what they want, shoot where they want - and he heals them, feeds, teaches and so on. But, by the way, also an important detail: so far there are no reliably confirmed cases that Russian generals commanded Belarusian soldiers directly, through Lukashenko’s head. Yes, when Lukashenko says "you need to help," he agrees. In Belarus, by the way, in general, after the last Putin visit, a hot dispute arose, does something still depend on Lukashenko or no? We hear him rhetoric, he is even more sometimes aggressive than Putin - but Belarusian troops are not yet involved in the war.

- Belarus through the efforts of Lukashenko, probably, has already completely become a vassal protector of Russia, although outwardly it doesn’t look like that. The country depends entirely on Russian supplies, on Russian goods, on money. They just talked about the prices of gas just a lot now.

“They talked a lot, but we do not know what.” And they themselves said very vague about it that "we agreed," without details. I remember that in the middle of the outgoing year in the European market, a thousand cubic meters of gas cost, if I am not mistaken, 3 thousand dollars. And for Belarus, the price was $ 129, that is, more than 20 times less. So when the market price of gas is 20 times larger than the one on which it is sold to you, then let it be not 129, but 150, suppose, or even 200, it is still great. Although Lukashenko asks a long time ago, and this seems to be written in some "integration maps" of Russia and Belarus, generally give him the Russian price of gas, the price of the Smolensk region. But with this decision, I think, in Moscow they will not rush. They will say: "You are good, of course, a man, but if you want Russian prices, so go directly to Russia, join like a subject of the Russian Federation." As he Putin in 2019 offered in 2019 and offered.

- If you list all the fears of Alexander Lukashenko, and he is clearly a lot of them, what and whom he is most afraid of, and what is not so distinct, I would say?

-I think that now he is still afraid, and it is strong that he will be forced to fight with Ukraine. What else? That money is not enough, that people can rebel, because there is experience in 2020. Perhaps he is afraid (he has, to put it mildly, a kind of thinking) that the West will try to overthrow it. I think that he is very afraid of his sworn, so to speak, friend - Vladimir Putin. Allegedly, some plans are in Moscow in general, so to speak, to remove from the post and put someone more obedient-especially, as soon as Belarus is drawn into the war. There will be some "good general" that Putin will like at the head of the Belarusian army-and who then needs Lukashenko? The general for the Kremlin is much better. He catches the air with his mouth, so to speak, and fluids of these risks hover in the air.

Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk at a press conference. December 19, 2022

- How is the Russian invasion of Ukraine are served in the official media of Belarus? In the same way as Russian media, or are there any differences?

- The narratives of the Belarusian propaganda and the Russian are now very close, they are almost the same. But, yes, there are some features. For example, about missile strikes from the territory of Belarus, that rockets fly to Ukraine, and they are regularly flying - nothing in the Belarusian media. Lukashenko had one very interesting performance when he said: “Yes, we are participating in the“ Special Military Operation ”. And many journalists immediately began to discuss this, they say, he admitted! And then Lukashenko explained that he had in mind:“ We keep the border of our Union State in the West. So we participate, we do not let our Russian brothers hit in the back. This is our participation. "It didn’t say a word about Russian missiles! It seems that this is not the message of propaganda:" We are not participating, we are in the house, we have nothing to do with it. "Although Belarusian journalists can even say on the Russian army" our army. "In general, in the media of Belarus" Russia is absolutely wonderful, it behaves perfectly, right, and we need to conduct a "special operation", but we need to do it. We do not participate. "

- Anti -wired attacks, all sorts of rudeness, rude ridicule, chapcock, they are in Belarus as accurately as in Russia? Or is there any specificity too?

- The same, yes. This is coming from the very top, personally from Lukashenko, and he is completely not shy at all, unlike Putin. We also saw this at the last press conference-when we were talking about football, Lukashenko spoke out in a hammone about President of France Macron. To which Putin answered with restraint: "Well, this is our partner, we are negotiating with him." And Lukashenko sank with a relish, mocked, showing his, so to speak, machism.

- And in the minds of citizens, Lukashenko is trying to build the same scheme, the image of a country as a besieged fortress, from all sides except Russia, surrounded by evil enemies? Or in Belarus, few will believe such?

Prison terms in Belarus for "anti -state activities" - up to 20 years

- And then the answer - yes. Moreover, this went in Belarus with a shaft after 2020, after the defeat of protests. The counter -revolution, let's say, in Belarus occurs continuously. Total arrests continue, coverage expands, and most of the arrests, by the way, are precisely for participating in the events of 2020, and not for something that people are doing now. Watch the recordings of video cameras, find, calculate people. And the prison deadlines in Belarus for "anti -state activities" - up to 20 years. Not for the murder, but for the fact that you led some telegram channel, say, "very revolutionary." And this is constantly pronounced by power aloud, which means that in the West they still dream of giving up us, they want to attack us. A particularly popular topic is Antipolskaya, this is Lukashenko in recently almost a central line. That is, he curses the whole West, but Poland is such a special enemy, and she gets the most from him.

- From Russia, all this year, every month fled, emigrated, relocated, I will use this newfangled euphemism, tens of thousands of people, especially after the declaration of mobilization in September. Is there such an outflow from Belarus? By the way, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians, who actively protested in the summer of 2020 on the streets, were they all left in the country and in prisons somewhere in prisons?

- You correctly said that the Belarusian temporary frame is wider. In Belarus, of course, after 2020, a large stream of emigrants went. According to various estimates, I can’t say for sure now, we are talking about several hundred thousand people-to a 10 millionth country. Maybe up to half a million. There is no accurate statistics, but a lot of people left. And I think, due to possible mobilization, even more people will run, taking into account their mood. Moreover, as our well -known political scientist Artem Schreibman correctly warned, unlike Russia, when mobilization is announced in Belarus, the borders will be tightly closed at the same hour, they will not let anywhere anywhere. Well, maybe someone will be able to run away, oddly enough, through Russia-but all other borders will be on the castle.

When and if mobilization is announced in Belarus, the boundaries will be tightly closed at the same hour

-At least someone in Belarus now imagines what will happen to the country in five or ten years, what can it be without Alexander Lukashenko? Or does his figure already seem to everyone eternal, as the monuments of the ruling family of Kim in North Korea?

- So far, yes, it really seems eternal, and many. On the other hand, it was still 2020, which, of course, undermined his legitimacy, even though that revolution lost. But 2020 showed how to win. Now it is very difficult, you see, all Belarus lives under the press, under terrible repression. I recently talked with two human rights activists - from Russia and from Belarus, so in Russia there are 500 political prisoners, which are recognized by the international human rights community, and in Belarus there are 1.5 thousand, while one country is more than another 14 times. Here, you can imagine what the situation is in Belarus. But, nevertheless, many have the idea that this is a sealed seething boiler, and then something is a war, some kind of economic turmoil, I don’t know something else, Russian occupation-and this cauldron can tear so much that 2020 will seem flowers.