Western tanks, homemade missiles. What will Ukraine fight?

A number of Ukrainian officials announced that Ukraine in 2023 will begin production of its own missiles of different ranges. How feasible is this?

It became known that Ukraine will receive infantry from Western partners. Can these supplies change the course of war?

The main goal of Ukraine is still tanks. They, according to the commander in chief of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, need 300 units. Back in October, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexei Reznikov said that the United States is not ready to provide Ukraine with M1 Abrams tanks, since the logistics of this technique can become a big problem for the Ukrainian army. Germany completely refuses to supply its tanks alone, although she agreed to put the MARDER BMP. Will Ukraine receive long -awaited equipment in 2023?

These and other questions are answered by Ukrainian military expert Vladislav Seleznev and expert of the Center for Defense Strategies, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Viktor Kevlyuk .

The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrei Ermak in his characteristic manner, resorting to the help of Emoji, hinted that Ukraine was developing its own missiles.

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- Andriy Yermak (@andriyyyermak) December 25, 2022

The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexei Rebronikov was more straightforward - he stated that one of the priority tasks of the state for 2023 is the intensification of the production of Ukrainian weapons, including a missile.

Military expert Vladislav Seleznev considers this task to be feasible:

Technologies, equipment, staff and specialists in Ukraine are

- We must come literally from the following: is Ukraine a space state? Yes, it is, because there is an appropriate scientific and industrial base in Ukraine. Before the start of full -scale aggression by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, steps were made to missiles. There are technologies, equipment, personnel and specialists in Ukraine. Despite the fact that our partners do not supply us with weapons that can beat more than 80 kilometers at a distance, explosions in Russia occur at a distance of 200 or more kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The airfield in Engels arrived twice - it is generally 600 kilometers from the border. What exactly worked - the Ukrainian side does not report this and does not take responsibility for the explosions. Obviously, there are some systems. I suspect that this is the development of the Ukrainian defense industry. I think that over time we will learn in more detail what exactly was delivered and strikes.

Explosions in Russia happen systematically and accurately. Ukraine has the necessary weapons

As for components, this issue can be resolved. Well, if North Korea, the Land of the Rogue, which has been under sanctions for many years, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, are able to produce long-range missiles, then I think that Ukraine is certainly affected. Moreover, taking into account previously marked positions: equipment, personnel, technologies and most importantly - motivation. If Reznikov makes such transparent hints, then he has every reason for this.

- If the Western allies of Ukraine refuse to supply ATACMS missiles with a flight range of 300 kilometers, can they, for example, provide Ukraine with components to create their own missiles?

- Why not? Obviously, the West occupies a rather flexible and accurate position in the provision of the weapons that can cause obvious irritation in the Russian Federation. But in this rhetoric, the supply of components for missiles is not indicated in any way. It is likely that the elemental base, electronic base, blocks, which are an important element in creating long -range and high -precision weapons, can be provided by Western partners. However, only the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or Ukroboronprom ( unification of enterprises of the defense and industrial complex of Ukraine under state administration.-RS ) can confirm this information. Once again - explosions in Russia happen systematically and accurately. This suggests that Ukraine has the necessary weapons for this.

- How can the presence of high -range missiles change the situation at the front?

Russians are pouring on the objects of critical infrastructure of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army destroys warehouses, barracks

- This will increase the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian army, as this will at least restore a certain parity. If now the Russian army can freely use missiles that are hit at a distance of up to 4.5-5 thousand kilometers, if we are talking about missiles of the X-101 air complex. If Ukraine says that it has the opportunity to produce a rocket on an industrial scale that can overcome a distance of more than 300 kilometers, this will help restore the balance on the battlefield.

I would proceed from the following: why is there a discussion so actively about providing Ukraine with ATACMS missiles to reactive systems of Himars and their analogues? Because these missiles are able to act at a distance of up to 300 kilometers and carry a serious fighting unit. This weapon or Ukrainian -made weapons will destroy the "fat" goals both in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and in the territory of the Russian Federation.

If we compare how the Ukrainian and Russian armies use their weapons, then we will see that the Russians are pouring on the objects of the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army destroys the places of concentration of enemy force, warehouses, barracks with personnel and command posts. This allows you to weaken the capabilities of the Russian army. Do you need high -precision long -range missiles for this? Yes, of course, we need it.

-For a long time, Ukraine developed its own missile system " Grom-2 " ( Ukrainian operational-tactical missile system.-RS) . Mass production did not begin, as I understand it, due to a lack of funding. Can, for example, Rockets "Grom-2" or their analogues to enter the service of Ukraine this year? Now, I believe, there should be no problems with financing.

Ukraine is looking for any way and opportunities to strengthen its missile potential

-I would clarify that this is a matter of financing not so much the Ukrainian army as the Ukrainian defense industry. Until February 24, 2022, one “thunder-2” was made, and the second was at the production stage. Technological chains, specialists and production base - all this is consolidated in Ukraine. In the presence of political will and financing, the issues of creating these complexes can be resolved. The tactical and technical characteristics of this complex are quite serious, and, of course, this is a very important weapon for the Ukrainian army.

Again, all the information about the production of weapons is in the public domain, but we can say that Ukraine is looking for any way and opportunities to strengthen its missile potential, since there is no need to fully count on our partners.

- What do you think, in which sections of the front will the main events will develop this year? Is it worth expecting a fracture during the fighting?

- As for the tactics of Russia, it is aimed at implementing three goals: the first goal is to enter the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The second direction is the south of Ukraine, this is necessary to preserve the land corridor from Donetsk to Crimea, the control of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and retain the Novokakhovsky hydroelectric power station, through which Crimea is enlisted. The third direction - Putin still dreams of conquering Kyiv - this scenario is also possible. Or they will try to cut logistics routes in the west of Ukraine. It all depends on the forces and means of the Russian occupation army. It is clear that the number of prepared mobilized in the near future will be approximately 100 thousand, but whether they will have equipment and ammunition is a big question. We see that now the Russian army is experiencing shell hunger and is forced to combine fire exposure.

As for the plans of the General Staff of Ukraine, the main goal is the access to the state borders of 1991. It must be understood that getting involved in city battles is an extremely complex and ungrateful mission. Fights in urban conditions are considered the most difficult. It can be assumed that the Ukrainian offensive will be concentrated in the south of Ukraine. The access to the Sea of Azov through the Melitopol will lead to a blocking of the land corridor in the Crimea. I cannot exclude that first Ukraine will free the south, then the Crimea and only after that will begin to liberate the East of Ukraine.

- What weapons can be provided to Ukraine in 2023?

- The Commander -in -Chief of the Ukrainian Army clearly speaks of the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. Ukraine needs 500 artillery systems and ammunition for victory, 300 tanks and 600-700 armored vehicles.

Aviation platforms will be provided

What will Ukraine get? I think that the discussion about the provision of ATACMS missiles will continue. I think that aviation platforms will be provided. I do not presume to say whether it will be F-16 fighters ( fourth-generation American fighter.-RS ) or their analogues. But at present, Ukrainian pilots are trained in the program of piloting the F-16 class aircraft in the United States is no secret. Of course, air defense systems will be provided. A few weeks ago in Germany there was a discussion that they would never provide Ukraine with the Patriot air defense system - attention! - First. However, the United States has already approved the supply of these air defense systems, which means that any restrictions on this part are removed from the Scholts government ( at the time of the publication of the conversation, Germany has already announced the transfer of the Patriot air defense battery.-RS ).

- Imagine that the supply of tanks was nevertheless approved. Valery Zaluzhny said that Ukraine needs 300 units. Does the Western allies of Ukraine have such an impressive supply of tanks here and now?

- This is the problem. The number of tanks requested by Ukraine is quite large. In the Bundeswehr ( the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Germany - RS ) of tanks, for example, less than 300, in France - a little more than 300 units. If this case is realized by one European country, then it will simply be left without technology. How this issue will be resolved is difficult to say. This is a matter of logistics, there should be a repair and restoration base, service centers. If there are French Leclerc , Soviet T-72 and T-80, American Abrams and Ukrainian T-64 BM in one tank brigade, then I can imagine what a headache the deputy commander of the technical part and the deputy for weapons of this brigade will have.

However, as a sign that the West does not throw Ukraine in its struggle, some small part of the tanks can be set soon. Or such a case will be implemented: other countries that have Western -sample tanks will provide them with Ukraine, and in return will gradually receive a new one. Do not forget that Great Britain and its emissaries are actively looking for Soviet weapons around the world in order to redeem it and transfer it to Ukraine.

Expert of the Center for Defense Strategies, reserve colonel Viktor Kevlyuk , however, believes that the supply of Ukraine M1 Abrams tanks is unlikely for several reasons:

Tank on the battlefield - a voracious creature

- In Ukraine, they have been talking about the transition to NATO standards for quite some time, but physically, everything is not moving beyond conversations, with the exception of a couple of industries. Many industries require the unification of procedures, equipment and the same varieties of fuel and lubricants. The tank on the battlefield is a voracious creature. The problem in the supply of fuel and refueling exists, because each tank company needs to supply fuel in very large volumes, and this requires specialized machines. Accordingly, specialized fuel varieties and lubricants - and all this, it is worth noting, should be carried out in combat conditions.

M1 Abrams

Ukraine is probably not yet ready for the use of such machines

If you do not go into details, then this is not so bad. If you think about the fact that a car costing from two to five million dollars requires a respectful attitude, then everything looks more complicated.

When in the early 2000s the United States conducted a military operation in Iraq, they deployed a field repair plant in the port of Kuwait. It was much easier to transfer specialists and equipment from the United States on a ship and create a plant in Kuwait than organize high -quality repair and maintenance of tanks in the desert. That is, the troops had a simple task - to take the broken cars and deliver to Kuwait, where specialists worked with them who produced this equipment. It must be understood that there are not so many specialists in field repairs even in the US Armed Forces. Probably, to give expensive equipment to a soldier who studied 5-6 months in the training center, still is not worth it.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems not only in the preparation of tank crews, but also in logistics: from repairmen to refueling. Therefore, Ukraine, probably, is not yet ready for the use of such machines.

- What time can overcome these difficulties take? Is it half a year, a year or an even longer term?

Whatever happens to the tank, the crew survives

-I do not think that it will take more than six months a year. Somewhere within these limits. There must be a focused program in the spirit: "We want to get this, let's implement the receipt of this type of weapons specifically." I do not see such steps from Ukraine, we work rather according to the scheme: “This unit should receive such weapons,” and then these people go west, study, receive this weapons and return to the front. With Abrams tanks, this idea will not work very well, because these tanks will need to be brought more to a lot of systems.

I witnessed the fact that at the exercises in Germany, one of the rollers was damaged by one of the repair machines on the basis of the Abrams tank. Repair of this machine in the conditions of the US military base in Germany - no one shoots, everything is - lasted five days. And this, by and large, is the repair of the wheel. Imagine all the same in our country where all this is not.

- Ukraine is trying to get these tanks from the very beginning of the war. Speaking in a very simple language, what are their advantages and disadvantages?

- During the conflict in Iraq, the broken Abrams tanks were, and there were enough of them, but there were no dead crews. The design of the tower provides for the stay of tankers in such an armored capsule. No matter what happens to the tank, the crew remains alive. This is his main advantage over all other cars.

The second point-the tank has a gorgeous fire control system and a chic aiming and navigation complex. He is capable of using a night sight, to shell targets at a distance of five kilometers. Russian cars are able to fire targets at a distance of up to two and a half kilometers.

Of the shortcomings - the tank is heavy and has a rather large projection

The tank allows the crew to be in a combat vehicle and conduct a continuous battle for up to ten hours. A normal tank allows this to do this for three to four hours. If you want, you don’t want to, but you have to banally get out of the car, breathe air, go to the toilet, have a bite. In Abrams, all this can be done without leaving the car. The crew is separated from the ammunition by an armored partition. The tank has a powerful booking, a powerful engine and, as a result, develops a good speed over rough terrain.

Of the shortcomings - the tank is heavy and has a rather large projection, that is, it is such a good target that, however, is extremely difficult to hit.

- As for the mass of the tank, it reaches 70 tons in the maximum configuration. Will there be problems due to this when driving along Ukrainian roads, bridges, crossings?

- If you take a tank with average modifications, then it will weigh 55-60 tons, since I doubt that Ukraine will be provided with maximum configuration, even if the transfer of Western tanks will occur. 55–60 tons is a lot, of course, but the tank has a engine with a capacity of 1200 horsepower! If you compare the amount of strength per ton of weight, then Abrams looks quite powerful. He feels very well on rough terrain due to wide caterpillars. In the south of Ukraine, a very open area on which the Abrams would show themselves very well, but we must take into account the fact that not all bridges can withstand a tank weighing 60 tons. If Ukraine plans to receive and use such machines, then automatically engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive the task - to increase the throughput of bridges and other road structures.

M1 Abrams

-Recently, a video appeared in the networks on which the T-14 “Armata” is supposedly Russian tanks move in the war zone or near it. Do you think they are able to change the course of the war and, possibly, become a competitor for the latest generation western models?

Voyage of three cars in the Donbass moves on the video - well, this is a presentation for customers

– Мы говорим о красивой презентационной модели, которую нужно сравнить с машиной, которая прошла две большие войны, если мы говорим об "Абрамсах". "Армата" на сегодняшний день, как говорят дети, это ни о чём. Танк задумывался как машина следующего поколения, он концептуально неплох – там необитаемая башня ( боекомплект располагается внутри башни, экипаж – вне. Огонь ведётся дистанционно. – РС ), там много разного, но всё это делается российскими руками и на российских заводах. Мы помним историю, как танк просто заглох на Красной площади и сдвинуть с места его не могли несколько суток. Чем закончится такая история в боевой обстановке, мы все понимаем.

Какого-то решительного преимущества машина, сделанная для потенциальной продажи клиентам из Ближнего Востока и Африки, не имеет. Их нет в нужном количестве даже для того, чтобы вооружить хотя бы одну танковую роту. Российская танкостроительная отрасль просто отключена санкциями от получения западных систем управления огнём, оптики, ночных прицелов. Она движется не в сторону танков следующего поколения, а в сторону танков прошлых поколений. Сегодня они могут отремонтировать только танки Т-62, в которых вообще нет ночного оборудования.

Плюс дефицит кадров в российском оборонно-промышленном комплексе: на два миллиона необходимых сотрудников приходится 400 тысяч вакансий. Плюс одна мобилизация, сверху – ещё одна, которая должна произойти в начале этого года, добавьте к этому отток кадров, которые разбежались из России в разные стороны. Что мы получаем? Работать некому, делать не из чего, технологии нестабильны. Вояж трёх машин по Донбасским перелескам на видео – ну, это презентация для покупателей.

– Стало известно, что США предоставят Украине БМП Bradley, Германия – БМП Marder , а Франция – колёсные бронемашины AMX-10 RC, которые некоторые СМИ классифицируют как лёгкие танки. Насколько эти поставки значимы?

– Когда в 2014–2015 годах ВСУ понесли значительные потери в военной технике, мы столкнулись с тем, что нам необходимо было увеличить не только численность вооружённых сил, но и количество бронированной техники для механизированных подразделений – мощные, тяжёлые, бронированные, но подвижные машины. Их у нас маловато. Тогда и начались поиски машин и бронетранспортёров в других странах, где было хоть что-то. Мы получали польские БМП-1, чешские БМП. Эти машины помогают пехоте защитить себя, быстро двигаться по пересечённой местности и вести огонь из неплохих орудий.

То, что нам дают партнёры, позволит посадить мотопехотные бригады на достойные машины, которые резко увеличат их боевые возможности. Всё также зависит от того, в каких количествах будет поставляться эта техника. У нас уже есть сформированные бригады резерва, у нас есть сформированные стрелковые батальоны. Когда у нас будет много машин, мы получим инструмент для взлома противника на широком фронте и быстрого продвижения в его оперативную глубину.

На харьковском направлении мы это видели в исполнении 92-й, 93-й и 25-й бригад, когда они устремились в прорыв и в клочья разорвали российскую оборону.

Это, пожалуй, что-то между оценками "отлично" и "великолепно"

Боевая машина пехоты M2 Bradley – это совсем не то, что было в 60-х годах, это совершенно другая машина. Это, пожалуй, что-то между оценками "отлично" и "великолепно". Она тяжелее, чем обычная БМП, но она имеет броню и защищает от 30-миллиметровых снарядов противника по всему периметру. "Брэдли" спокойно уничтожали иракские танки Т-72, потому что они оснащены противотанковым ракетным комплексом TOW . Даже если в каждом БМП будет по две ракеты, они смогут уничтожить два танка.

M2 Bradley

"Мардер" – это "Мерседес" в мире БМП

"Мардер" обладает очень хорошим орудием, несмотря на то, что они достаточно старенькие. Надо учесть, что это машина не плавающая, в отличие от БМП-1 и БМП-2. Представьте, что вы пришли в автосалон и выбираете между "Волгой" и "Мерседесом", так вот "Мардер" – это "Мерседес" в мире БМП.

Что касается французов, они длительное время оперировали в Африке – это специфический театр боевых действий, где равнины саванн, песок пустынь, джунгли. На гусеничных машинах там не сильно разгонишься, поэтому длительное время они использовали колёсные боевые машины. Это, безусловно, не танк. Это бронированное колёсное средство со 105-миллиметровой пушкой, которое позволяет бороться с бронированными целями противника. Это что-то среднее между колёсным танком и противотанковой мобильной системой.

Если что-то и получать, то в таком количестве, чтобы этого хватило хотя бы на один батальон. Это около 40 машин. Сколько у нас бригад? Enough. Речь идёт о поставке нескольких сотен машин, а лучше – тысяче и более. Готовы ли наши партнёры к этому – я пока сказать не могу.

Мы можем говорить о получении машин предыдущего поколения

– Если подытожить, с самого начала войны Украина просит у западных партнёров танки, а именно – 300 единиц техники. Исходя из тенденций поставок оружия в Украину, можем ли мы в ближайшее время увидеть в Украине американские танки M1 Abrams, французские танки Leclerc, немецкие Leopard 2 или же британские Challenger 2 ?

– Я думаю, что те современные танки, которые находятся на вооружении ведущих стран, нам не предоставят. Мы можем говорить о получении машин предыдущего поколения.

- Why?

– После выборов 2019 года украинские политики демонстрировали что угодно, но никак не готовность воевать. Мы готовились к шашлыкам, мы ездили в Буковель. Занимались разной ерундой, и тем самым мы поставили наших сегодняшних союзников в положение, когда они перестали нас понимать. К чему мы готовились? Сдать страну или воевать за неё?

Запад понял, что мы сдаваться не собираемся

В течение трёх лет накапливалось недоверие к военно-политическому руководству Украины. В первые дни боевых действий украинские солдаты показали, что им всё равно, как проголосовал электорат на последних выборах, – они воюют за Украину. И именно эти люди получили поддержку со стороны союзников. Пехотинцы показали, что они голыми руками могут противостоять российским танкам, потому что у украинского пехотинца в руках появились Javelin , NLAW , переносные зенитно-ракетные комплексы в немыслимых количествах. В итоге российская авиация понесла огромные потери.

Следующий этап был тогда, когда армия выгнала противника из-под Киева. Запад понял, что мы сдаваться не собираемся. Те, кто сегодня у власти, – не показатель того, что не нужно помогать вооружённым силам и стране. Появился Рамштайн ( Международная конференция по вопросам военной помощи Украине на авиабазе Рамштайн в Германии. – РС ). Мы стали получать более серьёзные системы. Потом Россия перешла на тактику ракетного террора – запад предоставил системы ПВО, ведь страдают люди. Это значит, что на одной скамейке в Гааге будут сидеть как ребята, организовавшие эти удары, так и ребята их наносившие. Все они будут слушать приговоры по статье "Геноцид". Да, системы ПВО пока не в тех количествах, в каких бы хотелось, но этого достаточно, чтобы противостоять агрессии.

Если Запад не разочаруется в армии Украины – а этого не произойдёт – и никак не усомнится в стремлении генерала Залужного довести войну до победы, то я думаю, что в течение года мы увидим и танки, и БМП, и разного рода боеприпасы, вплоть до получения не самых плохих истребителей. На всё это нужно лишь время.