A broken paradigm

Grigory Yavlinsky writes in a new article on his own website:

“ The future depends on how these three trends develop - geopolitical, energy and economic - and how they will influence each other. In the short term, you can hardly expect anything positive. In 2023, most of the world will be in a state of recession, and in some regions, economic weakness can aggravate geopolitical risks. This poisonous combination will be the most obvious in Europe. The continent will face heavy winters in 2022/23 and 2023/24. Many European economies are already on the verge of recession. Higher interest rates necessary to contain inflation will further reduce consumer expenses and increase unemployment.

So, the special military operation of Russia against Ukraine led to the largest military conflict since 1945 in Europe, to the highest risk of nuclear escalation since the Caribbean crisis and to the most large -scale regime of sanctions in world history. The rapid increase in food and energy prices has made the pace of inflation in many countries as high as possible since the 1980s, having turned out to be the largest macroeconomic problem in the modern era of central banks.

For decades, the European world lived in a paradigm, which assumed the indestructibility of state borders, the impossibility of using nuclear weapons, low inflation rate and accessibility - at least in rich Western countries - energy resources. On February 24, 2022, this paradigm was destroyed. Yes, at the beginning of 2023 the post -war world order has not yet died, but it is in the process of serious transformation. How this transformation ends, no one knows in the world.

Well, as usual, everything that will be an extreme scenario for Western countries will become mainstream in Russia . ”