Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online January 13
The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.
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21:20 The Ministry of Justice recognized actor Artur Smolyaninov and journalist Artemy Troitsky as foreign agents. Also on the list are:
- Sergei Ukhov, former coordinator of Navalny's Perm headquarters (recognized as an extremist organization);
- Anatoly Fursov, lawyer;
- Sergei Kirsanov, ex-priest;
- Alexander Shelest, journalist;
- OOO Tenes.
19:50 The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the participation of Wagner PMC in the "liberation" of Soledar. “As for the direct assault on the city blocks of Soledar occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this combat mission was successfully completed by the courageous and selfless actions of the volunteers of the Wagner assault squads,” the ministry said. The Ministry of Defense decided to clarify the situation "in connection with the appeals of the media," the report says.
Earlier today, the department announced the “completion of the release” of Soledar. PMC "Wagner" was not mentioned in the release. Prigozhin, who on the night of January 11 announced the capture of Soledar by PMC forces, at first refused to answer the question why his data differed from the data of the Ministry of Defense, referring to the fact that "the boat is already rocking." And later he said that “they are constantly trying to steal victory from Wagner PMCs” and “belittle their merits.”
17:41 Kartapolov denied information about sending non-serving Russians over 30 years old to military training.
Earlier, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee, Viktor Sobolev, said that Russians who had not served over 30 years old and were in the reserve would be sent to military training after the adoption of a law on raising the draft age. “Those who are over 30 years old will be recruited to receive a military specialty and not be cannon fodder. To do this, a lot needs to be done, including we must have a trained mobilization reserve ... For those who are in the reserve or reserve, but do not have any military specialty, military training will be held, ”he told Ura.ru.
According to Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, this information is not true. “These are the dreams of Viktor Ivanovich Sobolev, not connected with reality in any way,” told RBC. he
17:25 ️In Russia, a mechanism may appear for banks to pay compensation to customers whose money was stolen by fraudsters. Mishustin and Nabiullina should work on this issue on behalf of Putin. By July, they must submit a report, and, if necessary, proposals for making appropriate changes to the legislation, according to the Kremlin's website.
Putin also issued other instructions following the meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights:
- In particular, the government was instructed to consider introducing turnover fines for companies for leaking personal data;
- The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Health should submit proposals by February on the release from military duty of mobilized doctors of certain specialties, in particular, prosthetists and orthopedists;
- Also, by April, the government should work out the issue of compensation for housing destroyed due to hostilities to residents of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye, Kherson, as well as the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Rostov regions;
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Prosecutor General's Office should take measures by May to prevent the use of shackles against women, children and those accused of non-violent crimes.
16:14 Peskov announced the need to create conditions for the return of Russians to their homeland. This is how he commented on the idea of confiscating the property of those who left. “Enemies are enemies, they must be fought, but all the rest are our citizens and they must remain our citizens. We must make sure that even those who left, who are not our enemies, want to come back here again, ” said Peskov . He added that "everyone could have different reasons for leaving."
15:08 The Federation Council assured that the deferment from mobilization for fathers of three or more children remains. This directive of the General Staff will continue to operate, said Andriy Turchak, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council. He added that the issue of deferment from mobilization for fathers with many children has been worked out with the Ministry of Defense in order to stop "all speculation on this topic."
14:53 The Armed Forces of Ukraine refute the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense about the "completion of the liberation" of Soledar. Fighting is still going on in the city, Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, a representative of the Ukrainian Defense Forces of the Eastern Direction, told reporters. According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian military no longer maintains an organized defense in Soledar, but maintains positions near the city.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the "completion of the liberation" of Soledar on the evening of January 12. PMC Wagner is not mentioned in the release. On the night of January 11, Prigozhin announced the "taking control of the entire territory of Soledar" by PMCs. He refused to answer the question why his data differs from those of the Ministry of Defense, citing the fact that “the boat is already rocking”, therefore “answers will be required, but not now.”
13:46 The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the "completion of the liberation" of Soledar on the evening of January 12. The ministry stated that control over the city "allows cutting off the supply routes of Ukrainian troops in Artemivsk, and then blocking and taking into the cauldron the Ukrainian troops remaining in it." The ministry noted the actions of the Airborne Forces units blockading the city from the north and south. PMC "Wagner" in the release is not mentioned.
Foreign military analysts doubt the strategic value of Soledar, but do not deny him operational significance. First of all, this is really cutting off the supply lines of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), located 10 km to the south, and diverting the cash reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Donbass. Bakhmut remains the main goal of the Russian operation in this area, but taking it into the boiler will require the Russian Armed Forces to operate at a depth of about 20 km, which is significant by the standards of the current conflict.
13:34 Fears about a recession in the EU's main economy have not come true . In the fourth quarter of 2022, Germany's GDP probably did not decline, but stagnated. For the whole of last year, it grew by 1.9%. Unexpected stability was shown by household consumption, as well as industry, including the automotive industry.
12:17 700 thousand Russians left extreme poverty (below the subsistence level) in a year, mainly due to social benefits - but at the expense of the middle class, writes Bloomberg.
- In 2022, Russia spent more than 1 trillion rubles on payments to families with children, 400 billion rubles on indexation of pensions, and will continue to bear these costs this year. According to Bloomberg Economics, the cost of maintaining military personnel, including volunteers and mobilized, will add 1.1 trillion rubles a year to these costs.
- These spending, combined with falling oil and gas revenues, will put significant pressure on the budget. “In the face of a shortfall in revenue, the authorities can carry out fiscal consolidation, allowing inflation to eat up part of the real cost of social benefits,” said Bloomberg Russia economist Alexander Isakov.
- “The people as a whole are getting poorer, but the number of poor people is getting smaller,” economist Yevgeny Gontmakher told the agency. However, no more than 10% of Russians can now be attributed to the middle class, he believes (probably in the definition of families who can afford to buy a car and an apartment, have a quality annual vacation and have free funds).
- “The state helps the poor and those on the poverty line,” says economist Natalya Zubarevich. “For the middle class, the message is different: ‘bye guys, get out yourself.’” According to her, the poor perceive participation in the war as a way to end deprivation and the burden of accrued loans: "it's a way to break free."
11:06 State Duma deputy Nina Ostanina confirmed that the deferment from mobilization for fathers with three children has been cancelled. She referred to HRC member Irina Kirkora: the official directive of the General Staff of October 4, 2022 on delays in the partial mobilization of fathers of large families with three children was canceled at the end of December.
that this de facto delay had ceased to operate in Transbaikalia and Dagestan . wrote Lawyer Pavel Chikov (head of the Agora human rights group, recognized as a foreign agent)
The main thing for the night and morning:
- A study published by NBER found that money laundering trading (multiple resale of an asset by one person to himself in order to inflate quotes) makes up about 80% of all transactions on the largest unregulated crypto exchanges. It is possible that the very nature of the crypto market will not allow it to be regulated.
- State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin in Telegram this morning The confiscation of the property of the “scoundrels” who left Russia and criticize it, who “live comfortably thanks to our country”, was supported by and asked readers to speak out. In an hour, the post gained 200,000 views and 2,500 comments, most of them “for” – and at the same time they offer to deprive those who have left citizenship.
- The IAEA intends to deploy its inspectors at all nuclear power plants in Ukraine during the visit of the head of the organization, Rafael Grossi, to the country next week. Kyiv hopes this will prevent Russian attacks on critical infrastructure.
- Yesterday's data on falling inflation in the United States (The Bell wrote about them in the evening mailing ), together with the receding energy crisis in Europe and the rapid opening of China, increase the likelihood of a "soft landing" of the global economy, writes Bloomberg. Investors are already counting on it.
- China's exports in December fell by 9.9%, imports by 7.5%. Both are better than expected, with full-year exports up 7% to a record $3.6 trillion. However, the weakening of external demand has been noticeable since October and will clearly continue in 2023.
- 1.6% and 2% in Hong Kong today Quotes of China's largest big tech companies - Alibaba and Tencent - fell on the news that the Chinese authorities will receive a "golden share" in them. But not all investors consider this to be bad news: the control of officials will at least save them from excessive attention from regulators.
- The FAA has not cited hackers but human misconduct as the cause of a critical failure in the NOTAM aviation alert system that grounded 1,300 flights to the US this week. The real reason is deeper - the system is chronically underfunded and works to the standards of thirty years ago, and sometimes on equipment of the same age.