"Inauguration" with rockets

Julia Latynina - about the intraspecific struggle, which is more important than war at the front. Gerasimov came - “Wagner” can leave?

Immediately after the appointment by the commander of the united group in Ukraine, the head of the General Staff Gerasimov predicted his business card: the missiles flew to Kyiv.

This time the script was radically different from the previous ones. High-precision air and naval missiles, X-101 and X-555 with Tu-95 and “caliber” from the Black Sea Fleet flew to Kyiv. They - at least theoretically - are really able to get exactly in infrastructure.

This time the S-300 flew to Kyiv. This is a hypersonic (6 m) and highly vended (30 G) anti -aircraft guided missile. It weighs a lot - 1.8 tons, and the warhead is only 150 kg. Modification 48N6E flies at 150 km, and 48N6E2 - by 200.

In Kyiv, they beat from the territory of Russia, from the junction between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, there are 220 km. Barely get it. So, it is possible that it was a S-400.

You can’t intercept the S-300, but it has a different drawback. The S-300 is an anti-aircraft missile, it is designed to defeat air targets, and the GSN (self-control head) of this missile is semi-active. In other words, the rocket itself does not see anything, and the target is highlighted by the radar.

How to illuminate in the air is understandable. And what about Earth? No way. To highlight the target located on Earth, the radar must be above the horizon. “To get a range of 150 km, the radar must be raised to a height of 1.5 km,” says RLS developer Andrey Gorbachevsky. In addition, he adds, “a radar radar on the surface of the earth will highlight a strip of 30 km long and 2 km wide.”

It is impossible to say in advance to which of the buildings located in this strip in this strip.

In other words,

The indescribable S-300 (and S-400), in principle, is not able to shoot at ground targets aimed.

Of course, you can remove GLONASS from the GLONASS reception from the rocket - probably the APU will soon say if it was done.

In any case, the S-300 has a feature: if it loses the target, it should be self-destroyed. According to reviews, this is what happened in Kyiv. Many missiles were self -destructed without amazing the target. Their fragments were already falling on the city.

But the S-300 missiles in Russia are unmeasured: 7 thousand pieces. (S-400, of course, much less). It seems that on the occasion of the inauguration, Gerasimov tried new tactics. And if this tactic really consists in lifting the air defense missiles closer to the border, which, in principle, cannot accurately hit the target on Earth, and let them go in Kyiv that a small amount that can fly 220 km, then it is not impressive.

Of course, winged missiles were also. Ten Tu-95 rose from the airfields in Engels and on the Kola Peninsula, the Tu-22 flew from Kaluga, all the carriers of the “caliber” came out into the sea. All this armada shot 36 (thirty -six!) Missiles, of which 12 were “calibers”, and everything else was “x” of different varieties. As a result, the K-22 missile with a Quo of 300 meters was struck by the entrance of a high-rise building in the Dnieper next to McDonald's. This is a residential quarter, around kilometers there is no approximate plant. Only one shelytry went to Kyiv, it was shot down.

In other words,

Russian missile strikes “Infrastructure” are more and more, as we predicted, turn into just terrorist attacks. High -precision missiles are critically lacking

Instead of them, in order to report to Putin, they scorch missile trash. However, I would have waited on the site of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the “Shakudov” that night.

Gerasimov’s appointment coincided with the first significant success of Russia at the front for several months, namely: Wagner's PMC almost took soledar. To be more accurate (since everyone is arguing, the soledar is taken or not), then the Wagnerians-according to the military expert Roman Svitan, occupied the private sector, and the Armed Forces (46th and 77th brigades) still occupy industrial zone. This division is not accidental. Russia, as always, occurs with the help of artillery, and the private sector is one -story houses that artillery blows completely from the face of the earth. There is nowhere to hide after that - it’s easy to occupy them.

And the industrial zone, especially the Soviet one, is concrete ceilings, and in the case of Soledar, there are ceilings, and under them salt mines. Exactly the same situation was in Mariupol: the city fell, and Azovstal still held on. Only the Azovstal was carried by air bombs, and Russian aviation does not dominate over the Soledar. One artillery remains, you can stay against it for a very long time against it, because even a crumbling (and especially showered) concrete industrial building or high -rise building is an excellent shelter.

Nevertheless, the fact is a fact: Wagner for a long and unsuccessfully stormed Bakhmut, then the regular Airborne Forces threw to Bakhmut, and Wagner began to feel like a bahmuth to get around and felt a weak place in Soledar. Soledar is practically taken, the road to Bakhmut opens from it, and taken precisely by Wagner.

More precisely, the prisoners and professional Wagnerians beat inside the soledar, but around the full -time Airborne Forces are around. Almost like detachments.

The very people who recently recorded a video in Soledar, in which they said that they were not given shells, and called the head of the General Staff of Gerasimov specially swearing in the lips of the convicts and macho by the word - thereby mean not only sexual orientation, but also the inner essence of other honored progress of propaganda.

And so they take soledar - around, like detachments, the Airborne Forces stand - and at that moment this very Gerasimov is appointed a complete and absolute boss in Ukraine. And the chief of staff of the ground forces is appointed General Lapin, the removal of which was so bothering Prigozhin. And General Surovikin - the ally of Prigozhin - is reduced to the deputy Gerasimov.

The situation looks even more unusual, if we understand that the matter is not in Bakhmut and not in Soledar.

From my point of view,

The whole last couple of months of fighting in the Donbass, - Bakhmut, soledar, regardless of the details of the operational situation, is Prigogine's great tactical success.

Bakhmut is like Severodonetsk, only exactly the opposite.

Near Severodonetsk, the Ukrainian army connected the advancing Russian, forced it to spend a lot of time, expose other sections of the front, and, most importantly, won the time until Himars were brought up.

Under Bakhmut, Wagner tied the Ukrainian army, which otherwise would advance on the Zaporizhzhya front and broke through the land corridor to the Crimea. “Wagner” forced those Ukrainian units that would break through the land corridor, spend people, time and resources in a meat grinder under a bahmuth, and did this until those mobilized preparations began to arrive at the front. “Wagner” imposed a battle to Ukraine not where it was beneficial (the Zaporizhzhya front, with a depth of 100 km, where it was difficult to bring shells and have a bad dig in), and where she was disadvantageous: Donbass, connected with Russia, where the sea shells, and the strategic depth of the front - to Vladivostok).

And while the Wagnerians knew, prepared mobilized. Right now they arrive rapidly, “on the battalion per day,” says Roman Svitan.

At the same time, the standard units are very inferior to the Wagnerians. Under Bakhmut, the regular army replaced Wagner, and the fierce meat grinder stopped. Few people pay attention, but in parallel, the army of the Russian Federation is trying to advance from Kurdyumovka to Konstantinovka, and success, unlike Soledar, is zero. Yes, and in Soledar the picture, as we have already said, is classic. Wagnerians - prisoners and professionals - months inside, and the Airborne Forces stand around the city.

And at this moment, Putin changes Surovikin to Gerasimov. And the person who will now be responsible for the supply of Wagnerians with shells is the same person whom they called a publicly known word. You can estimate: they will give them shells or not. And how much.

And in parallel, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and Evgeny Prigozhin begin to compete: “I took this soledar! “No, I am.”

What does all this mean and which of this can be concluded?

It seems to me that we are observing the surprisingly indicative moment in which the intra -guest struggle turned out to be much more important than the war at the front, and we observe Putin’s demonstration to indicate his place to “Wagner”.

Over the past few months, the Prigozhin star rose higher and higher. He developed violent activity. Traveling in prisons, prisoners, performances, sledgehammer, public statements - everything made him a political star of the first magnitude, and moreover, such a political star that has a private army, that in the conditions of Failed state you understand why it is important.

This frantic initiative really made it possible to plug a hole at the front and win the time, spending disposable prisoners. And now, with the appointment of Gerasimov, we are demonstrated that it seems that not only the prisoners, but the entire Wagner, seemed to be due to the waste. That Putin seems to be concerned. And that the powerful army bureaucracy will always win from private adventurers.

Mobilized prepared - Wagner can leave. In fact, now in the Soledar units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Wagnerians are grinding in favor of Gerasimov.

Of course, Evgenia Prigozhin is still early to write off the accounts. These swings will swing in the other direction. But you thought they were fighting there only with Ukraine? Yeah.

Well, and a small detail. Armed Forces - by the way - all this time steps on Kremennaya and Svatovo. Not fast, but not slow: a kilometer per day. This is not the most profitable direction for the Armed Forces (not the Zaporizhzhya Front, but again densely nourished by people and shells of the Luhansk region), but in case of success, this maneuver will cut off one of the main lines of Bachmut.