China's population fell last year for the first time in 60 years

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The population of China in 2022 decreased by 850 thousand people, this is the first reduction since the famine of the early 1960s. There were 4 million fewer women of reproductive age over the past year.

What demographers and economists have been talking about in recent years has happened: the generation of the “one family - one child” policy, seeing the inaccessibility of housing and quality education, does not want to give birth, and with a total birth rate of 1.3 children per woman, the irreversible decline of the aging population is a question only time.

The demographic change that has finally taken place in China has profound consequences for the whole world: there are times on the horizon when the country simply does not have enough able-bodied population for the usual growth dynamics. India should surpass China in terms of population as early as this year.

For the Chinese economy, last year was not as disastrous as the pandemic 2020, but close to it. The country's GDP grew by just 3% after recovering 8.1% growth in 2021 - and this is the second half of the 1970s, even before Deng Xiaoping's reforms. However, there was no collapse in the fourth quarter after the lifting of tight coronavirus restrictions (+2.9%), which gives hope for a rebound in 2023 (Morgan Stanley predicts growth of 5.7%).

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