Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online January 19
The Bell continues to report online on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022.
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This online is complete. Read the new one here , the evening newsletter for January 19 - here .
21:54 Moscow began to strengthen its air defense. Photos and videos are being circulated in Russian Telegram channels showing the installation of supposedly Pantsir S-1 systems on the roofs of buildings several kilometers from the Kremlin.
The Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system appeared today on the administrative building in Teterinsky Lane, according to the Moscow calling Telegram channel. A video from another post shows several people in military uniform lifting containers onto the roof - this is the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system removed from the wheelbase, the channel writes .
Another complex was discovered on the Ministry of Defense building on Frunzenskaya Embankment by OSINT analyst Michael Borowitz. A similar photo was posted by the Telegram channel “Military Informant,” admitting that the placement of air defense systems within the city indicates fears of a possible attack.
Earlier, Muscovites noticed S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems on the Experimental Fields of the Timiryazev Agricultural Academy. A set of vehicles with a radar station also appeared between the Losiny Ostrov and Sokolniki parks. A source from the VChK-OGPU recently announced plans to expand Moscow’s air shield, which may be due, among other things, to the increasing frequency of attacks on Russian military targets near Moscow.
Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun systems can detect up to 30 types of targets, including drones. The Ministry of Defense recently published a video with military personnel using the equipment.
20:05 The United States has reached the national debt limit of $31.4 trillion, and therefore the Treasury Department is taking “extraordinary measures” to avoid a default on government obligations, department head Janet Yellen announced.
In a letter addressed to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican Yellen said the Treasury Department was suspending contributions to certain government health and social insurance funds until June 5, and reiterated the importance of raising the debt ceiling.
18:32 Bloomberg sources spoke about Singapore's participation in the re-export of Russian oil
Oil storage tanks in Singapore are “going like hot cakes” due to the “flow” of cheap fuel from Russia, which is then mixed with other grades and re-exported, Bloomberg writes . Such a scheme can help hide the origin of supplies to circumvent sanctions and is profitable.
For example, oil storage company Advario Asia Pacific Pte has seen an increase in requests for short-term/spot storage in the period up to December 2023. They assured that they were checking the source of raw materials in accordance with Russian sanctions before approving the deal.
A representative of Singapore's Jurong Port Universal Terminal Pte. declined to comment on the movement of certain goods, but said the company complies with all sanctions. Horizon Singapore Terminals Pte. did not respond to requests from Bloomberg, and a representative for Royal Vopak NV declined to comment.
Demand for six-month tank rentals is up 17% to 20% from last year, executives at several operators said. Vessel tracking data from Vortexa showed that in December 2022, Singapore terminals received twice as many volumes of Russian oil products as a year earlier.
Russian oil entering Singapore's reservoirs is likely to be re-exported to markets in Northeast Asia, admits Armaan Ashraf, head of liquefied natural gas at FGE. William Tan, senior vice-president of Singapore-based consultancy Miyabi Industries, estimates traders could make up to about 20% profit from blended fuels. Some of it could be used to fill storage facilities in Singapore or be sold to neighboring countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, the expert says.
Singapore has not imposed a ban on the import of Russian oil or petroleum products, although the city-state's financial institutions are prohibited from financing or dealing with Russian goods and companies, the agency recalls. However, the issue of trading in Russian oil remains a sensitive issue for the region, with some buyers wanting to keep information about their transactions under wraps.
16:27 The weakening of the ruble in December was associated not only with limited sales of foreign currency by exporters due to a drop in revenue, but also with increased demand for foreign currency, albeit toxic, the Central Bank writes .
- In the first month of the oil embargo and ceiling, “the average daily net currency sales of the 29 largest Russian exporting companies decreased by 6% compared to November 2022,” the Central Bank writes.
- Currency was purchased mainly by small banks and the public, with 68% of all foreign currency purchases by banks in December occurring in the second half of the month (RUB 386 billion).
- “In addition to traditional buyers of currency (importers and individuals who periodically transfer funds to foreign accounts), demand for “toxic” currency came from clients purchasing businesses from companies from unfriendly countries forced to leave the Russian market due to sanctions,” - writes the Central Bank.
- In December, individuals bought 154.2 billion rubles worth of foreign currency through the stock exchange and banks (after 70.1 billion in November), “which also negatively affected the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate.”
14:12 According to the SWIFT system, in December the share of the euro in settlements passing through it decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 36.34% (year-on-year), and the dollar increased by 1.38 percentage points to 41 .89%. Also in the top five payment currencies are the pound sterling, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan.
11:31 Yevgeny Prigozhin reported that Wagner PMCs control the village of Kleshcheevka south of Bakhmut.
10:52 Vladimir Zelensky, speaking remotely at the “Ukrainian Breakfast” in Davos, said that he does not understand with whom to negotiate in Russia, and is not sure that President Putin is even alive. From the transcript it follows that Zelensky said this rather in a rhetorical manner.
“I don’t understand who to talk to or what to talk about. I’m not sure that the Russian president who sometimes appears... the TV people know about chromakey - I don’t quite understand that it’s him. I don’t fully understand that he’s alive. I don’t know who makes the decisions, what circle of people. When we say “peace negotiations,” I don’t quite understand with whom,” Ukrainian media quote Zelensky. “Russia must first find someone and then offer something,” the Ukrainian president noted.
UPD Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov responded to this as follows: “It is clear that, purely psychologically, Mr. Zelensky would prefer that neither Russia nor Putin exist. But the sooner the Ukrainian regime realizes and realizes that Russia and Putin exist and will exist, that sooner or later they will still have to abandon everything anti-Russian, the better for a country like Ukraine.”
10:36 The British Ministry of Defense believes that Russia is preparing to send the latest T-14 Armata tanks to the front. This is indicated by footage of their combat training. The decision will be risky, since the real reliability of these machines is unknown, the existing means of repair and evacuation are not adapted to their heavy weight, and there are no more than a few dozen machines themselves. “If Russia deploys the T-14, it will be mainly for propaganda purposes,” the War Ministry writes.
10:28 Dmitry Medvedev again threatened the West with nuclear weapons in connection with tomorrow’s meeting of Ukraine’s allies “at the NATO base Ramstein.” “The loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war. Nuclear powers have not lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,” he wrote on Telegram.
9:12 Former children's ombudsman, now deputy chairman of the State Duma Anna Kuznetsova, following State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, proposed confiscating the property of those who left. “There are those who betrayed their country. There are those people who left the country, there are those organizations on Russian territory whose owners are people from unfriendly countries. Perhaps, in search of funds for housing orphans, we should contact and look for resources in this direction?” - she said at a specialized meeting in Kemerovo.
“All that remains is to understand how you can legally use someone else’s property to solve social problems. “No way without serious amendments to the Criminal Code,” Senator Klishas responded to Kuznetsova’s proposal.
Judging by information from the State Duma, confiscation is being discussed, but privately and not formalized in the form of a bill - at least not yet.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Russians have tried installment plans: while consumer lending struggled to recover to 2021 levels last year, installment plans showed a tenfold increase, writes Kommersant. Such high rates are explained primarily by a low base: the market is just emerging. Experts explain the popularity of the product by its simplicity of design. The Central Bank has already become interested in the fast-growing market.
- In Miami, 40-year-old Russian Anatoly Legkodymov, known under the nicknames “Tolik” and “Gandalf”, was detained . American authorities consider him the main owner of the Bitzlato crypto exchange, which is accused of money laundering, including for the world's largest darknet drug market, Hydra.
- Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov recommended that regional authorities organize the placement of kiosks with clothing and food near shopping centers and shops. The recommendation was sent to the regions on January 11, RBC learned . According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, this will support domestic producers and farmers.
- The United States may supply Kiev with weapons that could be used to attack Crimea, the NYT writes, citing sources. Previously, Washington refused such a step, fearing an escalation of the conflict. But recently, according to the publication, the presidential administration has changed its position and now believes that attacks on Crimea could strengthen Kyiv’s position in any future negotiations. AP reports that US authorities are finalizing a new $2.6 billion aid package to Ukraine, which could include 50 Bradley armored personnel carriers and about 100 Stryker armored vehicles.
- Facebook and Instagram (part of Meta, which is recognized as extremist and banned in Russia) will be allowed to publish photos and videos in which female nipples are visible. Meta's supervisory board overturned decisions by social networks to remove photos with exposed nipples and recommended reviewing the rules regarding the moderation of such photos. Activists have been fighting for the right of women to show nipples in photographs in the same way as men are allowed to do so for about ten years.