Dilemma Ramstein

Why is the only way to the world in Europe lies through assistance to Ukraine

The main disappointment of the last days - the participants in the meeting in Ramstein could not agree on the supply of Ukraine Leopard 2 tanks. No, they did not refuse, but did not agree either. They will still think. Against the backdrop of shelling and deaths.

The world, it seems, realized that the war should end in the victory of Ukraine, that Putin could not be won - the leaders of the West have repeatedly made relevant statements. Behind this understanding is not only and not so much sympathy for Ukraine as the realization that the Putin state is the threat of the entire Western civilization, that if Putin reaches the goals of the war - the destruction of Ukraine, then he, as Hitler at one time, will not be satisfied with the Sudes and Austria), but he will go further. That is, the world realized that he could not get along with Vladimir Putin with any peace.

But in the framework of this understanding there is a fork. You can give Ukraine everything that it needs for a quick and decisive victory. Then all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, will be liberated quickly enough. And you can give weapons dosed to be enough to restrain Putin and conduct a positional war, but not enough for the Ukrainian military triumph.

The West seems to be afraid of the decisive victory of Ukraine. Fears are clear. The liberation of Crimea, the collapse of the front, the destruction of military facilities in Russia can provoke and almost certainly provoke a deep domestic political crisis in Russia.

Having no electoral, but only “conceptual” legitimacy Vladimir Putin will finally lose his authority in the eyes of his own elite - he already loses - and with him power. It is unlikely that this will upset anyone-it will be easier to deal with any successor to the West than with him, but no one, because, does not guarantee that his departure from power will pass peacefully, and no one knows what the scale of the violence and bloodshed, no one knows. The West, at the same time, I believe, is not worried about the fate of Russian citizens who will suffer in this chaos, and the threat of violence will spill into Europe - it really cannot be excluded.

But the main thing that they fear in the western capitals are that Putin, who is stitched toward the wall, will begin the thermonuclear war. Yes, this, obviously, began to fear less than before - the ideas about the scale of the nuclear power of Russia, and about Putin’s ability to achieve such a crazy order, but to discount the possibility of nuclear apocalypse, the responsible leaders of the West, nevertheless, cannot. Ukraine, but Western politicians do not want to allow war on their territory and the death of their people.

Therefore, for someone in the West, the second scenario seems more attractive-a long-term war, when none of the parties can achieve decisive success-neither Putin will take Kyiv, nor Ukraine-Crimea.

It is assumed that Putin in this war will weaken in the economic, military, and political plan. Sooner or later, he will either surrender or will be displaced. In any case, it will no longer be as dangerous as now. The goal - the weakening of the threat emanating from the Putin state - will not be achieved as quickly as in the case of a decisive victory of Ukraine, but without risks. And that a myriad of people will die, of course, it is sad, but national interests, elections on the nose are always on the nose, and, in general, their own shirt is closer to the body. To help, of course, we will, but dosed.

This second strategy is not just immoral - after all, this is an attempt to achieve the goals of the lives of lives of a huge number of people, albeit not their citizens, but, nevertheless, people - citizens of Ukraine and Russia, who will perish, the longer the war lasts. It is erroneous, it proceeds from a misunderstanding of the essence of the Putin regime.

The meaningless protracted war, of course, will weaken Putin, but will not force him to surrender and will not lead to his removal or departure from power.

As new losses and falling in the standard of living, the dissatisfaction of the population will grow, but in the conditions of the strict-autorite regime, people have no ability to influence power. At least until Putin has at the disposal of the suppression forces of any protest. And they are, as is the readiness to shoot a crowd of protesters from a machine gun. Of course, it is possible to hope that the troops will not fulfill orders, as was the case in some countries, but it is impossible to evaluate the likelihood of such a development of events, which means that one cannot count on this.

No matter how the economy collapses, military plants will work - Putin, rather, will doom the people to hunger, which refuses the production of new weapons. Yes, in conditions of sanctions it will be of poor quality, but there will be a lot to cause misfortunes to the whole world with its help. As for the Putin elites, they can only rebel in the conditions of total collapse, but the slow deterioration of them will not encourage any activity (in fact, we see it now), and Putin, if possible, is to ensure his safety. And his hatred in the West will only intensify, and he will be able to hold the country only in conditions of permanent martial law and war. So, the country will be a beggar, archaic, but politically stable and even more aggressive than now. And sooner or later something will happen in the West now - Russia's direct clash with NATO.

Therefore, this option as a victorious does not exist. And the risks associated with the quick and decisive victory of Ukraine will be less than it will be more crushing - then there will be a chance that Putin simply will not give an order to apply a nuclear strike in the USA and Europe, nor to achieve its execution. Yes, the risks remain not zero, but I think there is no other way out

Speaking in the US Congress, Zelensky said: "Your money is not charity, but investments in the future." Ukrainians are now fighting not only for themselves, they save the whole world. And the world has no other way to escape from a threat, equal to which has not been eighty years old, except to give Ukraine the weapon that will allow it to win. ”