Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online January 21-22
The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.
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17:19 Boris Johnson arrived in Ukraine. The former British prime minister visited Borodyanka and Bucha in the Kyiv region, where he promised UK support "for as long as it takes" and also met with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev.
16:40 Bloomberg spoke about the role of Russia in the supply of the Ukrainian army by the West
Through the territory of Russia passes the main railway route for freight trains that carry rare earth metals from China to the West, which are necessary in the production of microchips, electronics and other modern military equipment. Among the carriers is the Russian Railways holding, which fell under the sanctions.
Shipments, according to European Union data seen by Bloomberg, rose to 36,074 tons in the first nine months of last year. This is double the amount for all of 2021. The volume of trade itself from January to September 2022 increased by about 80%, to €377 million (or $408 million).
“It’s amazing that despite all the sanctions, this channel continues to work,” says Michael Wurmser, founder of mining company Norge Mining. “It shows the importance of rare earths and how much we depend on them.” Norge Mining holds licenses to develop vanadium and titanium deposits in Norway. These metals are essential for the defense industry, notes Bloomberg, and China and Russia have the world's largest reserves.
China supplies Europe with over 90% of the rare earth metals used there. Russian railways serve as a key transport link, despite the fact that the share of traffic through the Russian Federation is 3-4% of the total trade between China and the EU. Metals can be delivered by sea, but it will take twice as long as by rail.
12:57 Poland intends to create a small coalition of countries that are ready to send tanks to Ukraine, said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. As part of the first aid package, Warsaw wants to transfer 14 German Leopard 2 tanks - this requires the consent of Berlin, but the Polish authorities can take this step without it.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Finland has frozen Russian assets worth €187 million. They include real estate, stocks, cars, yachts and aircraft, the country's Foreign Ministry said . Last fall, it became known about the arrest of local assets of Yandex due to EU sanctions against the co-founder of the company Arkady Volozh, the territory of the Långvik resort owned by Roman Rotenberg, and Gennady Timchenko's stake in Helsinki Halli.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) called the defense of Bakhmut a "strategically sound" operation, despite the associated cost to Ukraine. The easy surrender of the city would have been more expensive: the Russian Armed Forces could expand the offensive, and the Ukrainians would have to hastily build defenses on less favorable terrain.
- The supply of offensive weapons to Ukraine, which will be used to "attempt to seize" Russian territories, will lead to "retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons," warned State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin . He argues that the result of this could be the destruction of the United States and other NATO countries. Arguments that the nuclear powers had not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts, Volodin considered untenable.
- Germany may transfer 19 old-model Leopard 2A5 tanks to Ukraine, Der Spiegel writes , citing German officials. These tanks are used only for exercises as an imitation of the enemy during maneuvers. However, along with this, other Leopard models available to other countries, such as Poland, may also go to Ukraine, the newspaper notes. Discussions on Leopard 2 deliveries are still actively ongoing.
Continued online January 22.
18:48 The Ministry of Defense announced air defense training in the Moscow region. The military practiced repelling air attacks using a battery of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems.
15:17 The Foreign Ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia called on Germany to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine in order to stop Russian aggression and restore peace in Europe.
14:30 Norilsk Nickel may reduce dividends to $1.5 billion a year for the sake of large investments, told sources close to the board of directors RBC. According to them, the reaction of other shareholders, including UC Rusal, "surprisingly" turned out to be "peaceful" and "understanding". At the end of 2021, the company paid $6.3 billion. The final decision on dividends is expected in March-April.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Bloomberg and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) disagreed over the possible reasons for placing air defense systems on the roofs of buildings in Moscow. Agency sources - officials familiar with the situation - claim that the decision was made after the December attack by drones on bases in Ryazan and Engels. The ISW believes that the Kremlin assesses the threat of an attack on Moscow as unlikely, but with the help of "provocative" publications, it is preparing society within the country for a protracted war and further sacrifices.
- The Ukrainian military will begin to learn how to operate German Leopard 2 tanks, although their delivery was not agreed at the meeting in Ramstein, said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov . He noted that it was possible to agree on training thanks to the "tank" initiatives of Poland and Great Britain (Warsaw had previously expressed its readiness to transfer Leopards, and London - Challengers).
- The United States intends to recognize PMC Wagner as an international criminal organization, said John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the White House NSS. As a result, additional sanctions will be imposed on her and her affiliated groups next week. the White House statement has already commented on Evgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner PMC, : “Finally, now the Wagner PMC and the Americans are colleagues. From now on, our relationship can be called “dismantling of criminal clans”.
- Two price ceilings will be introduced for Russian oil products, said the US Treasury . One will be set for products that trade at a premium to oil, and the other for products that trade at a discount. The restriction should come into effect in February along with the EU embargo.