Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online January 24
The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.
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22:02 $45 billion in yuan reserves will allow Vladimir Putin to cover the budget deficit over the next three years, calculated Bloomberg . This will be possible at the current Urals oil price of $50. If it falls to $25 by the end of the year, then Russia could squander all of its yuan this year, the agency said.
20:50 Germany will send Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already made a decision on this, writes Der Spiegel. According to the publication, we are talking about at least one tank company. Other countries, including Poland, are also planned to be allowed to supply Ukraine with these tanks.
20:36 Finland is ready to supply heavy tanks to Ukraine and train the Ukrainian military to use them, President Sauli Niinistö said at a joint press conference with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev. Niinistö recalled that Finland is one of the few countries in Europe that has retained the conscription, so there is all the infrastructure necessary for training, including training grounds and qualified instructors. He also called for the creation of a powerful armored unit in Europe for the centralized transfer of such weapons to Kyiv.
19:22 German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may grant Poland permission tomorrow to send German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, report Bloomberg's interlocutors . According to them, Berlin wants to make a decision on the issue quickly in order to quell the growing discontent among its allies.
At the same time , Reuters and WSJ sources claim that the US this week may also approve the delivery of M1 Abrams battle tanks as part of a diplomatic agreement with Germany, which suggests that Berlin not only lifts objections to the re-export of Leopards, but also itself will transfer some number of tanks.
Germany's objections to the supply of Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine seem to have been withdrawn at the end of last week. Then the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country, Annalena Burbock , said that if Poland applied for permission to supply from the presence of its aircraft, it would receive it.
18:44 The State Duma continues to discuss penalties for citizens who have gone abroad. Volodin proposed dividing them into two groups: those who are "silent" and those who "sling mud at the country." It is the latter, in his opinion, that should be threatened with confiscation of property.
15:36 The largest Russian retailer X5 Group linked the physical decline in food demand by 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022 with the departure of Russians from the country. Prior to this, the influence of the departure of Russians on the financial result was recognized by the Azbuka Vkusa.
15:23 The amendments discussed in the State Duma on booking the date and time for the passage of trucks across the border will come into force only from September 1, 2023, their author, specified . chairman of the Duma Transport Committee Yevgeny Moskvichev,
14:32 The German authorities have revised the forecast for GDP growth in 2023, Bloomberg learned before the official announcement. Instead of a contraction of 0.4% (October estimate), they now expect growth of 0.2%. The forecast for 2024 is reduced from 2.3% to 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone Purchasing Managers' PMI rose to 50.2 in January, surpassing the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for the first time since June 2022. This is further evidence that the EU will not fall into a recession, or it will be very shallow.
12:37 Poland turned to Germany for permission to transfer its Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine. This was officially announced by the Ministry of Defense of the country.
11:42 At the disposal of CNN was the report of the Ukrainian military intelligence on the tactics of PMC "Wagner" near Bakhmut. The main conclusion is that despite heavy losses, these formations are insensitive to them, but they are ruthless to the enemy and represent the maximum danger in close combat.
- PMC "Wagner" effectively adapted the tactics of assault groups (10-15 people), an integral part of which was real-time combat control based on data from drones.
- In the first wave of attacks, as a rule, there are prisoners (whose losses, according to Ukrainian data, can reach 80%). Behind them are more experienced fighters with thermal imagers and night vision devices. If they manage to gain a foothold in a position, they dig in and call for artillery fire - probably the regular army. At the same time, cases of interaction failures and friendly fire are not uncommon.
- Assault teams must carry out a combat mission, therefore they are forbidden to evacuate the wounded themselves, who often remain on the battlefield for many hours. The retreat to the starting positions is carried out only at night.
- Wagner's tactics are "the only effective ones for the poorly trained mobilized units that make up the majority of the Russian ground forces." The regular army has already begun to use it, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
11:26 The proposal to oblige to book the date and time of crossing the border by car applies only to trucking, said the author of the amendments, the head of the State Duma Committee on Transport Moskvichev.
However, this does not directly follow from the text of the amendments - it says that the mechanism will apply to both carriers and individuals.
With regard to carriers, Moskvichev's amendments can be considered useful and even overdue. At popular border checkpoints, there really are kilometer-long queues of trucks, moreover, local reservation systems appear “from below” there, as on the Blagoveshchensk-Heihe bridge or at the Upper Lars crossing on the border with Georgia. And, for example, Kazakhstan is introducing reservations at the external borders of the EAEU.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Russians who wish to leave Russia in a private car may be required to book the date and time of departure as early as March. There is a lot of ambiguity in the bill, but the chances of its adoption are high - as well as the possibility of tightening the requirements.
- of having links with Oleg Deripaska, a “close associate of President Putin.” is accused In the United States, a new big scandal with a Russian trace: Charles McGonigal, the former chief of counterintelligence of the New York office of the FBI, who was detained over the weekend, The official involved in the investigations against Russian oligarchs allegedly established contacts with Deripaska's employee at the FBI, and after his resignation in 2019, he actually switched to a billionaire's salary and developed a rival oligarch.
- The Biden administration pointed out to the Chinese authorities that some companies of the country's huge public sector are helping Russia in the war, learned Bloomberg . This is not about weapons, but about military equipment and "economic assistance on the verge of a clear violation of sanctions," nevertheless, the United States warned China about the consequences.
- Wheat prices in the US fell to the levels of autumn 2021 to $7.1 per bushel - almost doubled from the highs of the summer of 2022 - on news of good prospects for the winter and sowing crops. The snow brought by the New Year's snow storm will protect the crops from the approaching frosts.
- The current week of corporate reporting in the US opened with the growth of indices , which again led the tech sector, which was hit hard last year. Investors are betting that the Fed will slow down the key rate hike, and the bad news for big tech will be won back, and they are waiting for reports from Boeing, IBM, Microsoft and Tesla.
- Meanwhile, in Europe, increasingly hoping to avoid a recession, consumer confidence has returned to pre-war levels.