Germany will supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine. How will this change the course of the war?

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Germany announced the delivery of a company of tanks - this is 10-15 pieces. At the same time, Ukraine spoke about the need for 300 tanks. It turns out that they allocated many times less than it was necessary?

— Deliveries to Ukraine consist of various components. There are 14 British Challenger tanks, there are about 30 American Abrams tanks ( The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post and Politico wrote about the readiness to transfer the Abrams tanks on January 24, but at the time of publication there was no official statement yet. - Note "Cold" ), there is a company of German "Leopards". are expected About a hundred more "Leopards" from other countries to be delivered. In addition, Poland announced the delivery of a brigade of T-72 tanks. In sum, this is already similar to the number that [Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy] Zaluzhny spoke about.

Why did Germany delay the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine?

The German Leopards are one of the most modern and widespread tanks in the world. Some European countries, such as Poland and Finland, were ready to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine on January 11 and 12, respectively. But they could not coordinate this with the German government: the consent of the German side is required for the re-export of these tanks.

The German government, according to Spiegel sources, is afraid to move to an escalation of the conflict, due to which NATO countries risk entering into direct confrontation with Russia. In addition, according to public opinion polls, about 45% of Germans would not like to supply tanks to Ukraine, although they generally support Ukraine.

On January 20, NATO defense ministers discussed new arms supplies to Ukraine at a German air base. Although the German side did not talk about the supply of tanks immediately after the negotiations, already on January 25, Olaf Scholz nevertheless announced that the decision to transfer a company of tanks to Ukraine had been made. Germany also allowed the re-export of "Leopards" to other countries.

Why are the Leopard and Abrams tanks so good?

- They were created to fight Soviet tanks during the Cold War. They have good armor, they are much more spacious inside than, for example, Soviet tanks, which were made small and low to make them harder to hit with guns. At the same time, armored missile systems still successfully hit them, and the small size creates discomfort for the crew.

Modern "Leopards" and "Abrams" are equipped with an effective fire control system, and, very importantly, thermal imagers. This allows you to fight with the enemy at night or if the enemy is hiding, for example, in forest plantations. High computerization and improved understanding of the situation on the battlefield gives tanks an advantage over most of the tanks that Russia currently uses.

Modern tanks are difficult to manage, there was news that it would take about six months to learn how to manage them. Does this mean that these tanks will be used at best only in the summer?

— Ukrainians are extremely motivated. We see that they were preparing to work on other systems much faster than the stated deadlines. Therefore, it can be expected that the tanks will arrive at the front in the spring.

True, it still matters whether there will be problems with the preparation of tanks at factories and with their delivery, since it is not clear what condition they are in now.

Will the dedicated tanks help Ukraine hold the line or can they be used offensively as well?

— The tank is a universal weapon. It can be used both for defense - to destroy advancing enemy armored vehicles - and for the offensive - in order to suppress enemy strongholds or operate in the operational space (free space behind broken defense lines. - Approx. "Cold") or in the rear .

Tanks have high maneuverability, including over rough terrain, powerful armor that protects against significant threats on the battlefield, and a large-caliber gun that allows you to suppress a significant part of enemy defenses or armored vehicles. Especially when it comes to modern tanks like "Abrams" or "Leopard" modification 2A6. The number of tanks that Zaluzhny called can be used quite effectively for an offensive, at least in one of the directions.

Ukraine used grenade launchers to blow up Russian tanks early in the war. How vulnerable are German Leopards and American Abrams?

- One can argue with the statement that Russian tanks were blown up with grenade launchers. A significant part of the tanks that Russia lost were simply left on the battlefield. A large role was played by the lack of fuel and the problem with logistics during the Russian offensive. Tanks that remained muted and unable to move without fuel became vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery and anti-tank systems.

If [Ukraine] manages to build logistical chains, then the maneuverability of tanks can save them from enemy attacks. Leopard and Abrams are less vulnerable to Russian Lancet drones

It is assumed that along with the tanks the infantry will act, also on modern combat vehicles like the Bradley or Marder ( armored vehicles designed to transport and support infantry and reconnaissance. - Approx. "Cold" ). They will help fight anti-tank missile systems.

The transfer of tanks to Ukraine was reported on January 24, the day when it was 11 months since the start of the war. Is there any symbolism in this?

- Don't think. Most likely, the leaders of the NATO countries came to understand that Ukraine needs to win precisely by military means. Not only to repel the Russian offensive, but also to ensure their own offensive actions and the liberation of the occupied territories. I think that this understanding helped to change the situation with arms supplies.

What forecast can you make for the near future at the front?

“The Russians can try to move forward quickly before Ukraine gets modern tanks. We are already seeing attempts at offensive operations in the Zaporizhia direction.

The Ukrainians can also try to develop the offensive. They know that possible losses in armored vehicles will be replenished in the near future with supplies from the West. It can be assumed that operations at the front will be activated in the near future. Both sides will try to develop offensive actions in order to seize the initiative.