Putin is weaker than Lenin

In modern Russia there are no resources for creating a stable dictatorship

Let's not deceive yourself and look at the situation with open eyes. We are all - both those who remained in Russia, and those who were forced to leave - we live by hope for the fast collapse of the regime. But even a hundred years ago, in Berlin and Paris, in Belgrade and Riga, who fled and expelled from Russia - the color of the nation - waited for the end of the Bolsheviks. We will return, back soon. Even the Orthodox Church in Belgrade is building without a foundation: it is difficult with money, but for a long time it is not needed - we will return. People in Moscow, in St. Petersburg, in Tambov, also waited for their end. This madness cannot last long!

In Russia, the Bolsheviks controlled almost everything. But in Berlin and Paris, in Belgrade and Riga, Russian culture bloomed, countless newspapers and magazines came out, and lectures and discussions were held. We will return.

And then all these brilliant people - officers and professors, politicians and poets - died in a foreign land. And long before their departure, Russian newspapers and publishers began to close, fewer people began to come to lectures and discussions, old, remaining in their previous ranks, participants in military unions. And we walk along Saint-Geneviev-de-Bois, as on the pages of a history textbook: everywhere familiar from childhood names.

And the remaining in Russia either perished in the camps, or lived, trying not to attract attention.

And the bastard who captured Russia tormented the country for three more generations: killing without an account, destroying culture, unleading wars. And only wasting everything - and material resources, and human and political - reluctantly departed from power. And as it turned out, and did not move away.

It seems from us that we, who, after a hundred years, filled Istanbul, Berlin, Riga, dozens of cities in Europe and Asia, who in Russia, in Russia, are not yet completely closed by the Internet, are trying to find symptoms of close collapse.

We have friends who think the same way as we, in emigration, are also newspapers and discussions, rallies and concerts. The history of the establishment of the power of criminals is repeated, the history of exile is repeated.

So, doomed to repetition and everything else. “Leave hope,“ as it seems to us, the story tells us, “you will not regain the country and will not return, Russia is doomed.”

But, no, she doesn’t say this: you have to be able to listen to her! Unlike the Bolsheviks, the current ones will not last long, and there is, if not evidence, nothing can be proved in these issues - then it’s serious reason to think so.

Comparing the regimes of Lenin and Putin, I see several points that say that Putin is weaker and, most likely, will not be held.

General consideration: the Communists collapsed when their resources ended - human, financial, moral. What about Putin's resources in comparison with Lenin?

Lenin and his successors had inexhaustible resources of slaves: they enclosed people in camps, relocated them from villages to cities - direct violence or artificial hunger. Putin does not have such resources. The point is not only that his suppression machine is not imprisoned for mass repressions is a profit. It is important that the reservoir from which the Bolsheviks took people - the village is long empty.

Trotsky at one time in a fantastically short time built the Red Army - it was quite disciplined and effective. Putin’s army is ineffective: stuck in Ukraine,

Trying to give out a town with ten thousand people for Stalingrad, carries huge losses. In addition, it is undisciplined, it is encouraged or, at least, banditry is not punished, it, as feudal armies, consists of formations warring to each other.

Putin is still being mobilized, but it is obvious that, as lost, it is not among criminals, who for the most part have no families and whose death does not bother anyone, but among normal people - evasion, desertion and surrender will only increase. Already now it ran away from mobilization more than it went to it.

Lenin inherited a good infrastructure from the empire, although the Bolsheviks and parasitized on it and on tsarist resources. In Putin, everything is destroyed: the economy, and the social sphere, and demography. Even the population of the millionaires, where everyone is striving, is reduced. He did not achieve anything. Compare the USSR of 1945 with the USSR of 1968, after 23 years, these are different countries. But Putin is in power for 23 years - there are no new cities, there are no breakthroughs, at least approaching the flight of Gagarin. If anything has changed, then to the worst. Brezhnev did not dream of such a stagnation.

The world was, in general, do not give a damn about the Bolsheviks. The Great War continued, the degree of danger emanating from Lenin, few people understood - let them do what they want, then we will figure it out, and maybe they will fall apart. Now everything is wrong: the West realized that the Putin regime is an existential threat, that he was trying not only to seize some territory, but to destroy Western civilization. Accordingly, the readiness for reconciliation.

By the way, Lenin did not fought with the great powers, only suppressed the desire of the colonies to liberate. Yes, even, being a rational person, he resigned to defeats: Poland, Finland, the Brest world, and other examples. Putin entered the war with the whole developed world and, despite failure, continues to beat his head against the wall. More countries and resources have now united against his state than against Hitler.

The repressive structures of Lenin were not only monstrously cruel (this is all right now), but also ideologized. At least, part of the Chekists were not just executioners, but also people who believe in the idea and in their leaders. Now, anyone who came across the Putin Guard, with riot police, with guards in prison, will confirm that there are, of course, sadists among them, but there are no people convinced and, moreover, devoted to the authorities. Yes, they will comply with any order, but they will not go for the system.

Under Lenin and others, part of the population was ideologized-someone believed that they said (they themselves were unlikely). That is, a positive idea, faith in the coming city-garden of some, at least, had. Now no one has it - only hatred of the whole world.

It is unlikely that under Lenin and his heirs, the power was as discredited as now. The facts of corruption, lies, hypocrisy do not surprise anyone. And this applies even to that "deepest people",

on which power is based. The authorities are not respected: they are ready to humble themselves, are ready to agree that others can be even worse, but they will not go to protect them, as Yeltsin defended in 1991. But it is not that it is important how many people will storm the conditional bastion-it is important whether at least someone will defend it?

Putin has no authority among the people either: how many houses in Russia, where people, being in the family circle, will drink for his health? And no one has been listening to his speeches for a long time - no one, in general, is not interested in what he said. For Putin today are not people of certain views, not fascists or nationalists - for him those who do not give a damn. They support not his and his policy, but power as such. Putin will change, it will turn 180 degrees a politician - they will support this.

Lenin enjoyed high authority in his circle. The elites are obviously disappointed Putin: they understand that he not only drove the country into the swamp, but destroyed their life, substituting sanctions that do not give them the opportunity to calmly use their billions. In this sense, he is increasingly similar to Paul of the first, quarreling not with the people - who cares about the opinion of the people? - And with those who, in principle, could enter his bedchamber.

And one general consideration: I do not believe that at this level of meaninglessness, inefficiency and lies, the regime can exist for a long time-does not fly!

In the zero years, Gaidar, no longer holding any posts, traveled to the United States and met there, in particular, with Vice President Cheney. At the end of the conversation, escorting it to the door of the office, Cheney asked: "Is this for you again for 70 years?" “No,” Gaidar answered, “a maximum of 15–20 years.” Gaidar was rarely mistaken - time is already suitable.

Everything will be! Do not give up!