Prices

Why Russians rejoice at stability in future economic poverty: we analyze the Central Bank surveys

Among the issues asked by the Russians during the January survey “Measurement of Inflation expectations and consumer moods” (it is carried out by the Public Opinion Foundation by order of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation), there were such: “Please tell me, the sanctions affected or did not affect your income from work (business)? If you have influenced, then how exactly: your income from work (business) has grown or decreased? ”

The answers were very noteworthy:

• 2% (two percent) of working Russians reported that in connection with the introduction of the sanctions their income has grown - and this indicator remains unchanged since June 2022.

• 42% told the interviews that sanctions on their income did not affect.

• 11% believe that their income has decreased.

• 1% could not decide on the answer.

• (44% of non -working participants in the study did not answer the question.)

However. If we assume that the sample of the FOM is “Russia in miniature”, then two percent of Russians whose income revenues was only good - this (we will rely on official data) almost three million people. 11% of those who lost in money are 15 million, five times more. Pensioners and non -working people were not asked - and this is logical, and all the others, it turns out, still - there are sanctions, there are no sanctions, money is paid.

True, as the authors of the ballot “What Trends are talking about”, also published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation , “salaries are out of direct dependence of work” - this is not what is needed for “structural transformation”.

Simple logic suggests that most people nevertheless suffered financial losses, and a completely small part of the population began to live “better and more fun”, but ... At the same time, in the same survey, people report that they evaluate their financial situation highly: “the current assessment index” grew to 87 points-in a maximum of two years.

The origin of optimism

And the fact that everything will be even better with the economy, people have no doubt: “ The index of assessing the prospects for the development of the country in the coming year ” amounted to 114 points - also a two -year maximum, and the same “prospect index” for the next five years is at the level of 113 points, close to the maximum of the summer of 2022.

True, to the question: “ What will happen to prices in five years ” -

• 38% of respondents “ cannot imagine this ” in general, this is the most popular answer.

• 9% with the answer is difficult,

• And 11% believe that prices will add 11-12% per year.

There is something bewitching in this-everything will be fine in five years, people answer, in the sense of the economy, but what prices will be-half of the population cannot imagine.

True, at a five -year horizon in inflation in the interval of 3-5%, as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation promises, no more than 10% of respondents believe, the rest believe that everything will be much more expensive. However, more than half of the respondents do not believe that even at the end of 2023, annual inflation will be 4% - and reply that prices will rise much faster.

It is noteworthy that when the question concerns the growth in prices last month (i.e. in December 2022), the most popular answer was “increased very much” - 45%. But people tend to believe in a miracle - and to the question “ How, in your opinion, will generally change food prices, non -food products and services next month ?” The most popular answer is: “Moderate will grow” - 43%. The most interesting thing is that this combination of answers has been preserved for several years - every month FOM asks this question, and each time, evaluating past expenses, people say that prices have risen strongly, and when planning the future, they expect that prices will rise slowly.

And so it is repeated from month to month, from year to year. As if people are conjuring prices - do not rise, please do not rise.

The only time over the past two years, people were right in their forecast for price growth - this is in March 2022: most respondents decided that prices would rise very much - and inflation did not deceive their expectations.

Everything is in order, but ...

How do people overcome “temporary difficulties” (and what else, because, according to the survey participants, the economy will have to show outstanding results)? “ Tell me, please, what of the transferred you (your family members) began to be done over the past month? It was started - that is, they did not do in the previous month? " - ask experts to FOM.

“They began to buy cheaper products and goods cheaper than before,” - the most popular answer, 24%. A little less, 19% of the answers, scored an option: “Buy less often or refuse some food, goods, services, entertainment” and the third popular answer: “I went to look for a higher -paid work/part -time job/business” ...

And with all that, the consumer mood index in people - 101 points - at the maximum for five years. And over the past two years, half of the respondents monthly replies that their financial situation “over the past year” has not changed.

And the financial situation of the majority is such - and also from year to year:

• About 35% reply that “ there is enough money for the purchase of clothes and shoes, but there is not enough for the purchase of large household appliances ”,

• And about 25% - " there is enough money for food, but there is not enough for the purchase of clothes and shoes ."

Stability.

The median value of the average per capita available income is at the same time 17,600 rubles. (The median value reflects such a threshold value in which the average per capita income is exactly half of the members of the survey participants exceeds it, and the income of the other half is less.)

Unacceptable economy lessons

There is no reason not to believe the PM polls, it is they are used by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to draw up their forecasts for inflation and evaluate the quality of communication of financial authorities with the population. Moreover, according to FOM experts, “for the Russian market, the dynamics of the consumer mood index” (IPN) may be a rather reliable tool for forecasting the future consumer and financial behavior of citizens. ”

People really answer as they answer, but what do they think and what do they really want to say? And where is the border between “consent” and “consonant”?

I have no answer, but there is a remarkable case - from the same survey.

Among the questions that the FOM asks the respondents, there is this: “ Do you know, have heard something or now for the first time about an organization such as the Central Bank of the Russian Federation? "" I hear for the first time " - this is how 30% of respondents answered in February 2014. But in January 2015, there were only 15%of such “hearing” such “hearing”.

It can be seen that the events of 2014 and the December collapse of the ruble were forced to find out what a financial regulator is and why it is needed.

However, all subsequent years, the share of those who “first heard about the Central Bank” grew steadily - and in February 2022 people who did not know about the existence of the country's key financial institution turned out to be 33%.

Now there are fewer such “involved about the Central Bank of the Russian Federation” - only 25%. We can conclude that

Only serious financial shocks make people be interested in the activities of the authorities.

Still, the economy is such a teacher who, if he does not teach anything, will sooner or later ask for ignorance of his lessons.