In Kyiv, "personnel decisions" continue. Now the Minister of Defense Alexei Reznikov will resign (almost certainly) - it was he who agreed on the supply of Western weapons

"Medusa" says what this means against the background of the new offensive of the Russian army

Since the beginning of 2023, Vladimir Zelensky has been conducting personnel permutations within the government and his office. Among the others, his team was left by Alexei Armorovich - one of the most recognizable figures of the Ukrainian authorities. Zelensky also resigned 11 high -ranking officials and heads of regions, including Deputy Minister of Defense Vyacheslav Shapovalov and deputy head of the presidential office Kirill Tymoshenko . And in early February, it became known that the Minister of Defense Alexei Reznikov could also resign - abuse of official powers were discovered in his department (with personally, the Rezniki was not believed in corruption schemes). At the request of Medusa, the Ukrainian policy researcher Konstantin Skorkin explains what is happening in the military department, who can change Reznikov - and how changes in the state apparatus may affect the course of hostilities.

Who is Alexei Reznikov, how he became a minister - and what can he be fired for?

A native of Lviv, Alexei Reznikov began his career as a lawyer: he collaborated with leading legal firms in Ukraine and worked, including with affairs that turned out to be iconic in the history of the country. For example, in 2004, during the first Maidan , Reznikov was one of the lawyers representing the interests of the opposition, pro -Western presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko in the Supreme Court. Then the second round of the presidential election was declared invalid, and after a second vote, Yushchenko defeated his competitor Viktor Yanukovych with a margin of 8%.

After the Euromaidan of 2014, Reznikov became deputy mayor of Kiev Vitaly Klitschko-in particular, was responsible for the Eurovision in Kiev in 2017. And when Vladimir Zelensky won the presidential election in 2019, Reznikov came to the team of the assistant to the new president and the future head of his office Andrei Ermak. In 2019–2020, Reznikov was a representative of Ukraine in the tripartite contact group for the Minsk agreements , and in 2020–2021-Deputy Prime Minister on the reintegration of the occupied territories (Donbass and Crimea). Finally, in November 2021, he was appointed Minister of Defense.

Despite the purely civilian career, Reznikov was in its place - and after the beginning of a full -scale war with Russia, he gave a lot to the Ukrainian army. The main merit of the minister is that he managed to make contact with Western allies and effectively organize military assistance supply. So, Reznikov took part in negotiations at the Ramstein air base , after which Germany, Poland and other NATO countries finally approved the supply of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

Reznikov’s good relationship developed both Western colleagues and the Ukrainian military command. According to military expert Ivan Stupak, the Minister of Defense could call the head of the Pentagon Lloyd Austin "at any time", since "they had an understanding." And with the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, Reznikov, as he himself declared, was a “contract”: “We agreed with Mr. Sulfyu that I was not teaching him to fight ... I am not a racket - I am a lawyer, a lawyer as a Minister of Defense.”

Reznikov’s career was undermined by corruption scandals in his department. On January 21, the newspaper “Mirror of the Week” was an investigation that the Ministry of Defense was purchasing products for the army at high prices. Two days later, Reznikov reacted to the publication: he accused the journalists of “manipulations” and “information attack”, which could interfere with military assistance negotiations. A little later, Reznikov nevertheless recognized his “communication failure”. Nevertheless, anti -corruption activists are sure that the minister “covers the people who organized the corruption scheme” and that he “chose the path of protection of these people”.

On January 24, Vyacheslav Shapovalov , his deputy for the rear supply, resigned, and on February 3, the SBU detained two entrepreneurs who sold the army food at high prices. Two more high-ranking officials of the Ministry of Defense, the ex-deputy of the State Procurement Department, Bogdan Khmelnitsky and the deputy head of the Office for Coordination of Foreign Economic Activities Vladimir Tereshchenko, also came under suspicion. Khmelnitsky is suspected of embezzlement of almost three million dollars and the supply of poor -quality body armor, and Tereshchenko in the assignment of $ 1.3 million.

“Medusa” in Russia is now not only “foreign”, but also an “undesirable” organization. This status is much worse than the previous one. Nevertheless, we continue to work. We can still read us. It is safe. Here are all answers to anxious questions.

The charges are not brought against Reznikov himself. But he admits that he is responsible for the actions of his subordinates, and is ready to leave the post if Vladimir Zelensky makes such a decision.

The probability that Reznikov will leave is quite high. In 2017, among other things, it was corruption scandals and theft to the Ministry of Defense- the case of Ukroboronprom and Gladkovsky-Svinarchuk -the seats of President Petro Poroshenko were worth it, and Zelensky remembers this well. During the elections in 2019, he promised to prevent the emergence of new “pigchuk”. Reznikov has an influential patron - the head of the presidential office (OP) Andrei Ermak, who is trying to slow down the dismissal process of the Minister of Defense. However, abuses in power are especially annoyed by society at the height of the war, and this pushes Zelensky to strict decisions. The situation is also affected by rumors about a large -scale Russian offensive in the coming weeks - then there will be no longer up to personnel permutations, especially in the military department.

How good is the idea to appoint Kirill Budanov as the Minister of Defense?

The most likely successor of Reznikov in the event of his resignation is called the head of military intelligence Kirill Budanov-a 37-year-old officer who became widely known after the beginning of a full-scale invasion. As a scout Budanov participated in special operations in territories occupied by Russia, in particular, in Crimea in 2016. Since August 2020, he heads the Main Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. It was Budanov in November 2021 that Russia would attack Ukraine in the “end of January” of 2022. And although then he was skeptical of his words, now the country's leadership trusts him, and one of the largest Ukrainian publications “New Time” calls Budanov one of the most influential military Ukraine.

In addition, Budanov is in good account with the Allies of Ukraine: his interview, in which he gives the situation at the front, regularly goes out in the Western press, for example in The Washington Post and ABC News . Therefore, he is quite capable of continuing the work of Reznikov to conduct negotiations and the organization of military assistance. Another thing is that it is not entirely clear where Budanov is more beneficial: in the chair of the official or still at the head of the intelligence.

With the possible purpose of Budanov there are other difficulties. According to the National Security Law adopted by the Verkhovna Rada in 2018, only a civil official can be the Minister of Defense. That is, before taking the place of Reznikov, Budanov should not only resign from the post of head of intelligence, but also quit the army - either it is necessary to amend the law. Both options require time during which two key military departments will actually be left without leaders - and it is not clear how much this period can drag on.

Finally, some political scientists believe that competition can begin between Budanov and Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since both of them, in addition to the proper warfare, actively perform in the media.

What is happening in the Zelensky team?

Due to the situation, the Ministry of Defense surrounded by Zelensky began conflicts. For the preservation of Reznikov, the head of the office of President Ermak advocates at the post. And his potential successor Kirill Budanov is supported by the head of the faction of the pro -Director Party "Servant of the people" David Arahamia. The latter had already even managed to report the change of Minister of Defense as a failed fact.

David Arahamia has his own motives: influencing a personnel policy, he seeks to increase his weight in the presidential team. After the start of the war, the role of parliament in the political system is reduced, and with this, the positions of Arahamia as the head of the faction of the ruling party “Servant of the people” are weakening. Ukrainian political scientist Yuri Romanenko also notes that the deputy has his own interests inside the Ministry of Defense: the head of the Ukroboronprom key defense concern and the protege of Arahamia Yuri Gusev (in 2014-2015 they worked together in the Ministry of Defense, then Arahamia brought Gusev to the Zelensky team) not the most warm relations with Aleksey. Reznikov.

In any case, the conflict around the resignation of the Minister of Defense speaks of serious turbulence in the team of Vladimir Zelensky. The consolidation, which was at the beginning of the war, changed the struggle of group interests and a personnel mess. Against the backdrop of the threat of a new Russian offensive, Zelensky is trying to bring his associates to the sense of his associates and restore order at the top, including through an anti -corruption campaign. With its help, the president wants not only to update his team, but also to satisfy the other two addressees. On the one hand, to reassure society, outraged by abuse of power during the war, on the other hand, to demonstrate to Western allies that the fight against corruption in Ukraine does not stop even against the backdrop of a full -scale Russian invasion. The last paragraph is very important for Zelensky, given the volume of assistance that the United States and EU countries allocate to support Ukraine.

At the same time, a shortage of personnel is affected by the government - Zelensky is forced to look for people among those who are already busy with the departments. So, on February 7, the Verkhovna Rada appointed new chapters of the SBU and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. The security service was headed by Vasily Malyuk, who previously acted as the head of the special services. And the new Minister of the Interior was Igor Klimenko, the former head of the national police.

In the case of resignation, in the event of a resignation, he will still remain in the team of Zelensky. According to the same Arahamia, he could take the post of Minister on Strategic Industry. However, Reznikov himself said that, firstly, he did not receive such proposals and, secondly, would not agree, since he was not an expert in this area.

However, in the coming week, personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense are paused - a backstage bargain is going on for the minister’s chair.

Konstantin Skorkin