Zelensky asks Europe for planes, Russia increases oil production, Disney restructuring and Google chatbot failure

Britain and the United States have softened their positions on the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine

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Volodymyr Zelensky, on the second day of his European tour, is trying to convince the EU countries of the need to supply fighter jets to Ukraine. The phrase “give us wings” he said during a speech in the British Parliament circled all the world's media. The West has so far taken a wait-and-see position and is not ready to deliver the planes in the near future, but Great Britain and the United States, which were unambiguously against it at the end of January, have already softened their positions.

• Zelensky's short trip to Europe began in London, where he met with King Charles III of Great Britain on Wednesday afternoon and addressed members of the British Parliament. Already in the evening of the same day, the President of Ukraine flew to Paris for talks with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz. And on Thursday, Zelensky will arrive in Brussels to attend a two-day EU summit. Unlike the December surprise visit to the United States , the trip to Europe was announced, albeit at the last moment (with the exception of Brussels - Zelensky's trip to the EU summit was not known in advance).
• Otherwise, the visit of the President of Ukraine to London and Paris strongly resembled a trip to the United States. Especially his speech in the British Parliament. As in December in Congress, Zelensky began an appeal to British parliamentarians with gratitude for the assistance provided to Ukraine. And in the end, he thanked Great Britain in advance “for the powerful English aircraft”, which Ukraine has been asking for for a long time. Zelensky’s phrase that “in Britain the king is an air force pilot, and in Ukraine today every air force pilot is a king,” and his request to “give wings to Ukraine” to “defend freedom” drew applause. As in the United States, there were some symbolic gifts: then Zelensky presented the congressmen with a flag from Bakhmut, and Joe Biden - a Ukrainian soldier medal. The British parliamentarians got the helmet of "one of the best Ukrainian pilots."
• A helmet as a gift and phrases about pilots and wings clearly speak of the main goal of this trip - to persuade European countries to supply military aircraft to Ukraine. And if at the end of January, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the supply of aircraft inexpedient, then on the evening of February 8, his press service reported that the Prime Minister instructed the Minister of Defense to study what kind of aviation could potentially be transferred to Kiev. In addition, London is ready to train Ukrainian pilots to fly NATO aircraft.
• True, Sky News calls the talk about the possible supply of British aircraft to Kiev empty. According to the publication, London now does not have aircraft that it would be ready to transfer to Ukraine. The Tornado GR4 would be best suited for Kyiv's purposes, but they have been decommissioned four years ago and it will be too expensive to put them on alert. F-35s are too expensive and demanding to maintain, it can take months or even years to train pilots for them, not to mention the threat of modern stealth technologies entering Russia. Only the Typhoon planes remain, which Britain can provide to Ukraine, but they are “only for training flights and are not suitable for combat,” Sky News writes, citing sources in the British Air Force.
• Germany has so far refused to talk about the supply of military aircraft to Ukraine. France allowed this possibility from the very beginning, but under certain conditions. Poland and Lithuania, the main lobbyists for the transfer of Western tanks to Ukraine, were unambiguously in favor. The Netherlands is ready to study the issue. At the end of January, the US authorities were clearly against it, but yesterday, after Great Britain softened its position on aircraft, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken evaded a direct answer to the question about fighters. He said that as the conflict develops, the aid that the United States provides to Ukraine will also change.
• Zelenskiy has long been asking allies to supply fighter jets to Ukraine. Now this request is being heard more and more often due to the fact that Kyiv fears an escalation of the conflict in the near future. Ukraine needs multi-purpose vehicles capable of destroying a cruise missile, attacking an enemy aircraft or targets on the ground, Sky News notes. the best option The FT calls the F-16 fighters . NATO has many of them, and the arsenal of air-to-ground weapons for them is very large.
• Today, Zelensky will travel to Brussels for the EU summit, where he will probably again raise the issue of possible aircraft deliveries. In addition, the possibility of Ukraine's accession to the EU and new sanctions against Russia, timed to coincide with the anniversary of the start of the war, may be discussed there.

What's in it for me

On the one hand, even if the UK agrees to supply aircraft to Ukraine, most likely these will be training Typhoons. But on the other hand, as the FT and Kommersant rightly point out , it was London that was the first to announce the supply of tanks to Kiev, thereby creating a precedent and pushing other countries to this step. Therefore, even Typhoon can become a "precursor" for the supply of F-16s. But the delivery of fighter jets is definitely not a question of the next few months, because it will require pilot training (which Britain will do now), establishing a supply chain and aircraft maintenance process.

INVESTMENTS

Moscow exchange urges investors to be careful with the third tier

The Moscow Exchange reminded investors of the need to make balanced investment decisions "due to high volatility in a number of instruments." Sharp rises in quotes in the absence of a fundamental or news basis in recent months have been observed in the third tier, explains BCS . They are accompanied by abnormally large trading volumes for these issuers, the broker notes.

On the morning of February 8, shares of Krasny Oktyabr, ChKPZ, Mostotrest and MGTS became the growth leaders. They grew in the range of 20-30% and entered the top five in terms of turnover, second only to the shares of Sberbank. BCS warns that it is too risky to join this growth, because such a rise is followed by a correction.

We write about what is happening in the markets, what the largest investment banks recommend to their clients, and how to look at the markets through the eyes of a long-term investor in the weekly Bell.Investments mailing list (this is a paid product, but worth it).

WHAT ELSE IS HAPPENING

• Despite the embargo and the price ceiling, Russia continues to increase oil production and exports: according to Kommersant, in the first week of February, oil companies increased production by almost 1% compared to the average level in January. Compared to February last year, the fall was the same 1%. Experts attribute the growth in exports and, as a result, the growth in production to large discounts on Urals. In January, its price decreased by 1.7 times year-on-year, dropping below $50 per barrel.
• The death toll from the earthquake in Turkey has risen to 12,873, with about 63,000 more affected. This is significantly more than died in 2015 during the earthquake in Nepal, which became one of the most devastating in recent years. Then there were about 9 thousand victims. In Syria, the death toll has risen to 3,508.
• Shares of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, fell more than 8% on Wednesday after the unsuccessful presentation of the artificial intelligence chatbot Bard. The company accelerated the development of this bot after the introduction of ChatGPT, which was dubbed the "Google killer". Also on Tuesday, Microsoft, which is investing billions in developer ChatGPT, unveiled new AI versions of its Bing search engine and Edge browser. After that, Google hurried to present Bard, but during the presentation, the chatbot gave an inaccurate answer to the question asked to it. This upset investors and led to a drop in Alphabet quotes. Whether ChatGPT will kill Google, we analyzed in the latest issue of the tech newsletter.
• Litigation unfolded around the sale of the OBI business in Russia, Kommersant writes. After the start of the war and the departure of the German OBI GmbH from Russia, the owners of the chain of stores have already changed three times. Now Moscow businessman Andrey Baranov is trying to cancel the transfer of ownership and get 40% in the structure to which OBI stores moved in August 2022. Lawyers see chances for a review of transactions, and experts note the risks of a negative impact on the network's business due to uncertainty with the owners.
• The management of The Walt Disney announced the restructuring of the company and plans to reduce 7,000 employees. The corporation will be divided into three divisions: one will be responsible for entertainment (TV shows, movies, etc.), the second - for sports broadcasting, the third - for theme parks, selling souvenirs, etc. The Walt Disney expenses will also be reviewed, it is planned to cut them by $5.5 billion (with $3 of them removed from the budget for films and TV shows).

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