Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online February 10
The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.
THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL OR IS RELATED TO THE ACTIVITIES OF A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL. 18+
21:20 The Ministry of Justice recognized singer Zemfira and opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov as foreign agents.
The justification states that Zemfira "openly spoke in support of Ukraine, carrying out concert activities in unfriendly countries with calls against a special military operation, received support from foreign sources."
The list of foreign agents today also includes:
- Anna Rivina, founder of the Violence.No Center for Helping Victims of Domestic Violence (recognized as a foreign agent);
- Abbas Gallyamov, political scientist;
- Tatyana Namazbayeva, activist from Vladivostok;
- Sergey Aslanyan, journalist;
- Sergei Shpilkin, physicist and election statistics researcher;
- Alexandra Kazantseva, LGBT activist.
20:38 Why should the authorities limit the discount to Brent and reduce oil production
The record budget deficit since 1998 in January forced the authorities to look for ways to get more oil and gas revenues. First, Russia will reduce production from March, thereby increasing the shortage of oil in the world market, the demand for which is growing due to the opening of China. Secondly, the authorities will change the formula for calculating the price of oil, on the basis of which oil companies pay taxes. The second measure can bring about 1 trillion rubles of additional oil and gas revenues to the budget per year.
What threatens the reduction in oil production, why it is necessary to limit the Urals discount to Brent and how the ruble will react to this, we explain here .
17:06 What to expect from the Russian offensive, will there be a second wave of mobilization and will Leopards help Ukraine? Interview with RAND Corporation expert, former Pentagon Lead Russia Analyst Dara Massicot
After three months of relative calm, the front in Ukraine is moving again. Russian troops, having received replenishment at the expense of those mobilized, are preparing for a new big offensive. In Kyiv, they say that it has already begun. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, are preparing to receive new Western equipment - primarily Leopard tanks, which can help Ukrainians break through the Russian front.
Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the American RAND Corporation and former Pentagon Russia Lead Analyst, was one of the few military experts a year ago to warn of the reality of the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the end of last year, Massicot was on the sanctions list of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
We talked in detail with Dara about how the fighting will develop in 2023, whether Western tanks and aircraft will help Ukraine, and whether there will be a second wave of mobilization in Russia.
15:26 Romania, a NATO country, has not confirmed the passage of Russian Caliber cruise missiles in its airspace during a massive strike by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine. But they entered the space of Moldova. The Russian ambassador in Chisinau was summoned to the country's Foreign Ministry.
15:12 Goldman Sachs has kept its forecast for Brent at $100 until the end of the year. But not by summer, but only by December
its forecast for the average annual oil price The investment bank lowered from $98 to $92 per barrel, but remained one of the most bullish for oil on Wall Street. Analysts see increased supply from Russia and the US, and on the demand side, growth in China, but decline in the US, Asia and Europe, which, due to the warm winter, did not have to replace gas with oil products for heating.
13:35 The Bank of Russia did not change the key rate, left it at 7.5%
The main signal of the Central Bank is an indication of the possibility of tightening monetary policy: “if pro-inflationary risks increase, the Bank of Russia will evaluate the feasibility of raising the key rate at the next meetings.” Read more about the solution here .
12:20 What is known about the new strike on Ukraine
According to military channels, the strike was carried out in two waves: first, Geran drones to hit targets and open the air defense system, then cruise missiles against stationary targets and identified anti-aircraft batteries.
Energy infrastructure facilities were again the main targets. One of the TPPs in Krivoy Rog, one of the substations of the DneproGES, as well as other objects, were reliably affected.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny claims that two Caliber missiles launched from Russian ships in the Black Sea passed over the territory of Moldova and Romania.
11:33 Russia to cut oil production by 500,000 bpd in March - Novak
Russia will voluntarily cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day in March, but will not sell oil below the ceiling, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak . “This will contribute to the restoration of market relations,” he believes.
Shortly after the news was released, Brent quotes jumped from $84.2 to $86 per barrel.
10:50 UK avoided recession, but not economic stagnation
The UK economy did not fall into recession , showing zero dynamics in the fourth quarter after contracting in the third quarter. GDP grew sluggishly in October and November, but fell 0.5% m/m in December as national strikes and a cost-of-living crisis unfolded.
The British economy confirms its reputation as one of the worst among the developed. Its GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 remained 0.8% lower than in the same period of pre-pandemic 2019. The US economy during this time grew by 5.1%, the eurozone - by 2.4%. The Bank of England expects GDP to contract this year and recover to previous levels only in 2026.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- The Ministry of Economic Development for the first time assessed the change in the geography of Russian exports in general over the past year. By the end of 2022, the share of "unfriendly" economies in monetary terms decreased from 58% to 35%. The fragmentary nature of partially closed data makes meaningful analysis difficult, but most likely this share is already close to the minimum achievable.
- Russian metallurgists are asking the government to guarantee the export of products to the east by rail. According to them, since the beginning of the year, metal loading in this direction has fallen by 60%, including for export by 80%, and this threatens with a direct decline in production (by 2 million tons for Evraz alone).
- The anomalous rise in the price of cucumbers (one and a half times since the end of December and by 12.7% over the last settlement week) is caused by two factors, found out RBC . First, since January, the cost of electricity has been indexed by 9%. Secondly, several large producers experienced "agronomic failures" superimposed on the seasonal minimum.
- Trafigura to lose $577 million in nickel scam. Part of the containers that came to the trader were loaded with low-grade steel instead of expensive metal. The company filed a lawsuit and fired the head of the direction, but this loss does not threaten it with a loss.
- The UAF almost always strikes with HIMARS missiles only after the coordinates of the targets have been clarified by the US military and its allies, this is a quick and well-established process, writes The Washington Post. If the coordinates are not confirmed, strikes are usually not made. This "allows us to talk about the deeper involvement of the Pentagon in the war at the operational level," the newspaper notes.
- At night, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukraine with cruise missiles and drones. Hits were noted in the Dnieper, Zaporozhye and Kharkiv, where electricity and water supply were disrupted.