Russian exports have become “friendly”, the secret of rising cucumber prices and Trafigura’s nickel losses

Russia redirected almost a quarter of its exports to "friendly" countries, but it seems that this is already the maximum

THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL OR IS RELATED TO THE ACTIVITIES OF A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL. 18+

The Ministry of Economic Development for the first time assessed the reorientation of Russian exports (in monetary terms) over the past year. Data from the presentation of the ministry leads RBC.

• Exports in January-November 2022 increased by 23.4% compared to the same period in 2021, to $538 billion, imports decreased by 12.7%, to $230 billion. Foreign trade turnover, respectively, reached $768 billion (+10%).
• The share of “ unfriendly ” economies (imposed sanctions or joined them) in Russian exports decreased from 58% to 35% by the end of the year, that is, almost a quarter of exports were redirected to “friendly” ones. But cumulatively over 11 months, exports to them still prevailed ($350 billion). Accordingly, the share of neutral and friendly countries increased to 65% by November.
• The data of the Federal Customs Service (in physical terms, for the whole year) paint a somewhat different picture. The share of unfriendly countries in exports decreased by 10%, in imports - by 25% compared to 2021. Imports in physical terms decreased by 16%.

Why is it important?

With the closure of trade and customs statistics, the analysis of Russia's foreign trade is forced to rely on "mirror" statistics of trading partners and grains of domestic data, so even such a rough structural assessment of exports by the Ministry of Economic Development is quite valuable. About what statistics are still available, where to look for them and how to interpret them correctly, The Bell wrote here .

In any case, to talk about the completed “turn to the East”, even taking into account the increased supplies to India (by 4.4 times, to $32.3 billion) and China (by 43%, to $114.2 billion), these data are about export structure is not allowed. Obviously, such an increase in exports to friendly countries in terms of money, while lagging behind in tons, is mainly due to the successful oil and gas situation last year, which has clearly changed this year.

The share of friendly countries in Russian exports has already reached its maximum and will not grow in the near future, Andrey Gnidchenko, a leading expert of the CMASF, told the publication. “The structure of consumption in them is more or less stable, demand is limited and it will not be possible to endlessly redirect supplies. However, the share of neutral states may increase when [new] gas pipelines to China are built,” he said.

THE BELL PARTNERS

Every third Russian turned to a psychologist - sociological survey

You can get the profession of a psychologist at the Smart International Online Institute of Psychology (Skolkovo resident). students Smart receive 400+ hours of practice, which is 2 times more than in any university. Only here you can get an international MBA diploma, which is quoted all over the world. Smart also gives a guarantee of the first earnings, prescribed in the contract.

The fastest ones have the opportunity to receive a grant of up to 50,000 rubles, which covers a significant share of the cost of education. Follow the link to select a program and receive a grant.

What else is going on

• Russian metallurgists are asking the government to guarantee the export of products to the east by rail. According to them, since the beginning of the year, metal loading in this direction has fallen by 60%, including for export by 80%, and this threatens with a direct decline in production (by 2 million tons for Evraz alone). There is no simple solution to the problem: there are no free transportation capacities, the existing ones are clogged with coal and oil.
• The anomalous increase in the price of cucumbers even against the backdrop of accelerating inflation (one and a half times since the end of December and by 12.7% over the last settlement week) is caused by two factors, found out RBC . First, since January, the cost of electricity has been indexed by 9%, which, with a short daylight hours, is half the cost. Secondly, several large producers experienced "agronomic failures" superimposed on the seasonal minimum. In March, the purchase price for cucumbers usually falls by half.
• Trader Trafigura, not so long ago one of the main suppliers of Russian oil, will lose about $577 million on the nickel scam. Part of the containers that came to the trader from companies controlled by the metal trader Pratik Gupta were loaded with low-grade steel instead of expensive metal. The company filed a lawsuit and fired the head of the department. This loss does not threaten Trafigura with a loss: in the last financial year, the trader increased profits to $ 7 billion on the sanctions commodity boom, and now it is ahead of last year's figures.
• The UAF almost always strikes with HIMARS missiles only after the coordinates of the targets have been clarified by the US military and its allies, this is a quick and well-established process, writes The Washington Post. Moreover, a senior Ukrainian official told the newspaper that almost no strikes are carried out without such clarification, which, in his opinion, should facilitate the supply of longer-range missiles to Ukraine. The Pentagon confirmed that they are clarifying the coordinates of the targets selected by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but not always, "and in this case, the Ukrainian troops do not strike." WP notes that this "allows us to speak of a deeper involvement of the Pentagon in the war at the operational level." Both the authorities of the DPR and the Russian Ministry of Defense have repeatedly accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of using HIMARS on civilian targets.
• At night, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukraine with cruise missiles and drones. Hits were noted in the Dnieper and Kharkiv, where electricity and water supply were disrupted, and the attack on Zaporozhye was recognized as the most powerful of the year.