The cost of war in Ukraine. Online February 14

The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.

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This online is complete. Read about the main events of the day in the evening newsletter . Online continuation here .

22:00 Businessman and creator of the Kremlin's media monitoring system Klyushin found guilty of cybercrime in the United States

A US jury found Russian businessman Vladislav Klyushin guilty of hacking the computer networks of large American companies and insider trading worth tens of millions of dollars, Reuters reports .

In total, five Russians are involved in the cybercrime case. With the help of stolen confidential information, according to the prosecution, they “played” on the stock price, earning almost $90 million. According to the agency, Klyushin is the only one who was arrested and brought to trial. The businessman was detained in Switzerland in March 2021 and then extradited to the United States.

Klyushin is known as the founder and owner of the M13 IT company, which monitors the media and social networks (Katyusha system) in the interests of the presidential administration, the government and other Russian government agencies. According to his lawyer Oliver Sirik, Klyushin's ties to the Kremlin were the reason for his arrest.

Bloomberg wrote that the developer could be a useful source of classified information for the US authorities about several GRU operations abroad, including interference in the 2016 presidential election. Last year, according to the agency, the possibility of including him on the list for the exchange of American basketball player Brittney Griner along with arms dealer Victor Bout was discussed.

18:58 Inflation in the US has slowed down, but continues to put pressure on the Fed

Headline inflation in the US slowed to 6.4% in January from 6.5% in December, said the Labor Department . Relative to December, consumer prices rose by 0.5%. The Core CPI index (core inflation, which does not take into account food and energy prices) increased by 0.4% against December and amounted to 5.6% per annum.

Economists expected a more significant weakening of the price growth rate in January: up to 6.2% in annual terms - in general inflation, up to 5.5% - in basic inflation. “It could have been worse,” Steven Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, told Bloomberg, noting the decline in used car prices and airfare. However, as the expert emphasized, as long as housing costs continue to grow as quickly as before, it will be difficult to return inflation "somewhere close" to the target level. For the Fed, it is 2%.

Given the January figures, it is expected that the regulator will raise the rate again. Now its range is from 4.5% to 4.75%.

14:34 The EU has included Russia in the "black" list of tax jurisdictions

The EU has added Russia to the list of tax jurisdictions that do not cooperate with the tax authorities of European countries - along with the British Virgin Islands, Costa Rica and the Marshall Islands. The reason was last year's law on international holding companies, allowing them to use internal offshore companies, as well as the termination of the dialogue of tax authorities in connection with the war in Ukraine.

12:46 In 2022, Russian oilmen set a drilling record

The sanctions did not prevent Russian oil companies from completing more than 28,000 kilometers of wells, setting a multi-year record, while the number of wells started drilling last year rose by 7% to 7,800, writes Bloomberg . Main reasons:

85% of the market is occupied by domestic oilfield services, mainly by vertically integrated companies. It is quite enough to maintain and expand production at developed fields.
Foreign oilfield service companies are involved in the most difficult cases. But two of the big four (SLB and Weatherford) did not leave Russia, and two more - Halliburton and Baker Hughes - sold the business to management, which retained both staff and competencies.
According to industry experts, Russia will be able, purely technically, not to drop production for at least another 4–5 years. Even by 2027, the share of production attributable to fields that are difficult or impossible to develop without the most modern technologies will not exceed 3%.

11:02 a.m. VK's board of directors approved the possibility of re-registering a company from the British Virgin Islands to Russia "subject to compliance with applicable legal and regulatory requirements." The growth of the company's quotes on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 3% on this news.

The main thing for the night and morning:

Deposits of Russians abroad in 2022 tripled in dollar terms, to almost $95 billion, and in some months of last year they spent more than in the average “calm” year, according to Central Bank statistics . The peak months were September and November.
The Biden administration is working with Congress on a $10 billion package of new budgetary assistance to Ukraine, and on the anniversary of the start of the war, it is preparing a new military aid package and new sanctions against Russia at the same time, learned The Washington Post . However, given the mood of the Republicans in Congress, this may be the peak of assistance to Ukraine and "Kyiv's best chance to decisively change the course of the war."
Investors are waiting for the release of data on the January inflation in the US. There is a rare situation where market trends predict different things: the bond market believes in rates above 5%, while the stock market believes that the Fed will be able to curb inflation with a smaller rate hike and without much harm to the economy. Who is right will indicate the behavior of the indices on Tuesday's auctions.
The Ministry of Economic Development decided to remove some of the burden on small and medium-sized businesses by significantly simplifying statistical reporting. It is proposed to submit it not to the departments, but to enter it immediately in your personal account, and not according to the forms, but according to the list of indicators. Now the number of statistical reporting forms can exceed a dozen, depending on the reporting period, and fines for non-submission can reach tens of thousands of rubles.
by 40–50% in 2022 Equipment for the production of electronics in Russia (not even chips, but for mounting printed circuit boards) has risen in price due to the forced “crooked” supply channels. Almost all of it is produced in "unfriendly" countries, and the quality of Chinese is noticeably worse. Without state support, such a rise in prices will lead to an increase in the cost of the final product, the participating companies warn.