The worst script

Why would the Duma and the Council of the Federation of the Russian Federation unscheduled their meetings on February 22? The day after the Putin message ? What exactly do they have to "fasten" from what he plans to say? And also: Russia and the sale of weapons of India. The version of the Arrestych against the version of Ros. Gos. TV. Discuss: politician Denis Shenderovich and military expert Mikhail Prutula. The program "Faces to the event" Elena Rykovtseva is conducting. Write to us in the chat and call on the air at TG @Pozvonisvobode .

Video version of the program

Elena Rykovtseva: An unpleasant commotion yesterday happened in the information space. These are the conversations that one after another, the Federation Council, the Duma will hold their emergency meetings on February 22, and you know very well what these unscheduled meetings take place: either the Crimea will annex, then they will consent somewhere to Putin, then they will join the territories. And when they announced that these unscheduled meetings would be, the explanations of senators, deputies - why. Let's listen to these explanations.

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Council and Duma are preparing for the message

Elena Rykovtseva: Denis Shenderovich is in touch with us. Since you have a deputy background, I will ask you: what do you think, why will it be, why all these unscheduled, extracurricular meetings? Or they are preparing just in case: you never know what he will say there, and we will have to urgently sign, wave it all?

Denis Shenderovich: There can be many options. Apparently, Vladimir Putin cannot avoid some symbolism. His performance before the Federal Assembly is precisely the eve of the anniversary of the recognition of two "republics": "DPR" and "LPR". I believe that maybe something is connected with this, since he cannot present any victories to society, and he needs to declare at least some victory. Perhaps there will be some more solutions. Maybe the closure of borders, the continuation of mobilization, the introduction of martial law with all the ensuing. Or maybe the accession of new territories in the form of Ossetia and Abkhazia. No wonder he called the leaders of these states.

Putin cannot present any victories to society, and at least he needs to declare at least some victory

Elena Rykovtseva: There are really several options for the development of events. Do you think what the worst? Let's get ready for the worst: it is always better to prepare yourself for the worst, so that later it feels better.

Denis Shenderovich: The worst option is obvious - this is the closure of borders, the introduction of martial law, mobilization. The escalation of the conflict, the transformation of a special operation, as Mr. Okhlobystin shouted: “Goyda! We will have a sacred war,” is the worst option for the Russian Federation, for its citizens, which can be.

Elena Rykovtseva: What does this change for citizens? Here he declares martial law, the closure of borders ...

Denis Shenderovich: For Russian citizens, this is a lot of what changes. If martial law is introduced, then, accordingly, the economy will be rebuilt into military rails. All businessmen who are now engaged in medium and large business are transferred to the economic martial law, respectively, the whole business will work specifically to maintain the country's defense capacity, money will need to be given for inspection of weapons. Citizens also have a number of constitutional restrictions. In principle, they already actually do not act formally, but martial law allows you to introduce a number and formal restrictions. These restrictions can be absolutely any. The future for citizens of the Russian Federation becomes very, very foggy. It is still not particularly transparent, but if this happens, it will be even worse.

I personally believe that such a scenario is unlikely, since Mr. President is still trying to create a certain legitimacy, for some reason he still flirts with the people, tries to show himself some fair democratic leader, which is completely inconsistent. Therefore, I believe that some serious decisions will not be presented. There will be many pathos words, some decisions in the form of the accession of Abkhazia and North Ossetia, which immediately, the next day will confirm the State Duma. Maybe there will be some solutions regarding the "DPR" and "LPR", but in any case, it seems to me that this will produce the effect of an inflated ball released to freedom.

The worst option is obvious - this is the closure of borders, the introduction of martial law, mobilization

Elena Rykovtseva: A good question about mobilization whether this is the worst scenario. A man flew on a business trip to a small Russian city, says that two mothers with strollers literally spoke on the street, and one says: “They would have already mobilized my way, you need to pay for a mortgage, but nothing.” How worse will it be for citizens?

Denis Shenderovich: Still, one or two women who express their position so is not 140 million people. In my internal conviction, most people about the current situation are simply silent, exactly because they are afraid, everyone understands perfectly, but they can’t do anything. They are in the position of hostages, and the hostages cannot be especially chatting, they understand that if they say something against, then they will deal with them very quickly. Those who have such a position are either Stockholm syndrome when they begin to sympathize with those who seized them, or they are people who consciously cooperate, understand what they are doing. Honestly, it is difficult for me to understand those people who have raised their children and voluntarily ready to send them to death.

Elena Rykovtseva: I would like to offer a fragment of a conversation on the channel "and struck Graham" with Ukrainian analyst Mikhail Sheitelman. He says that these structures that we are talking about today need to say, accept some decrees. What are these decrees - let's listen to his opinion.

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Mikhail Sheiteltman about the decrees of Vladimir Putin

Elena Rykovtseva: It seems to me, it seems to me that he says, with how you imagine this?

Denis Shenderovich: There is a good old saying: old monkeys do not show new tricks. This person cannot come up with anything new, so opinions converge, everyone who has some kind of analytical thinking, monitors the situation, can compare some historical events with the current, about the same picture.

There is a good saying: old monkeys do not show new tricks

Well, it can also be assumed that Vladimir Vladimirovich suddenly remembered that he did not fulfill his constitutional duty to the Federal Assembly, which he did not conduct in 2022, and decided to do this at the beginning of 2023. Maybe, but it is somehow a little stupid. We understand that he is not a stupid person, he still prepares some solutions, so it will still be decisions of some kind of such nature that I and a colleague said about.

Elena Rykovtseva: Listen to a survey of Muscovites: what do they think, why these meetings.

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Why, immediately after Putin’s message, is the Duma and the Council of People's Commissars?

Elena Rykovtseva: Mikhail Prutula , military expert with us in touch. Could you share the most terrible scenarios: what is the worst scenario from what could be, awaits us on February 22?

Mikhail Prutula: If we talk about bad for Russia, everything is already happening so bad, as for Russia, Russian citizens. After all, a huge number of people die, it is simply not clear why and why. What goals are set for this so -called "special military operation", which is essentially an aggressive war, no one knows. There are really no goals. The only goal that may be traced by us is that Putin and his top will evade liability for previously committed crimes.

Everything bad for Russian citizens is already happening: a huge number of people are dying, it is not clear why

What can happen worse for Russia now? Everything is blocked, the economy is dying, people are dying, Russia, most importantly, is not developing, becomes a tag country at all world theaters of military operations. Worse, probably, nothing can be. In Ukraine, more than a thousand Russian citizens die every day, and sometimes they die without even making a single shot without even seeing Ukrainian soldiers. They die simply because they were sent there. Why did they send, neither they, nor their relatives, or even those who sent them there, know. They kill a country that could be a great, beautiful country, and they are killed for a long time, methodically, systematically.

Unfortunately, the statistics of the external sector on the website of the Central Bank of Russia have already been classified. Previously, it was declassified, and I regularly looked there, what assets Russia has in banks in the countries of the probable enemy - NATO countries, the European Union. It turned out that Russia, during the reign of Putin, brought to NATO countries, funded the economy of NATO countries for more than a trillion dollars. This trillion dollars could work for Russia, develop industry, science, when Russia is integrated into the world community, when the whole economy of the country works. Putin withdrew this money, hid it in banks of other countries, and then they were blocked. In fact, Putin froze Russia many years ago.

Whatever Putin said in his speech, he will not tell the truth, he will not say that he hid the money in Russia in banks in the USA, Europe, London, and there this money is now frozen. This money could work, create a Russian technological miracle, to develop people so that the Russians do not try to marazize toilets and washing machines, and at least they could buy or do it themselves. I don't know what could be worse.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, nothing can be worse for Russia, because everything is already lost, lost, people die in incredible quantities. Why is the world with such anxiety awaits this message, if there is no longer worse? You agree that there is such anxiety and tension: what else will he throw, what is an unpleasant surprise?

They kill a country that could be a great, beautiful country, and they are killed for a long time, methodically, systematically

Mikhail Prutula: He cannot do anything good for the world, it means that he will do bad. Everyone is watching: what else can he do bad? He cannot do anything really bad, everything that he could do bad has already been done. Putin and his team is very small in the real corridor of opportunities. If you look at the opportunities that he has, then he can now declare mobilization. In order for society to accept this mobilization, he will now tell some stories that will probably be interesting to the Russian layman. These people will say: yes, it is time to use power. He will say: yes, we will apply, now get together all together, sit in the warmths. They will go within two days, then they will be brought to the area of hostilities, unload, they will go on foot. That's all that Putin can do.

He will plug the holes at the front in this way, with the help of infantry, because the high -precision weapon that Ukraine received is now leaves for no chance for self -propelled guns , or for artillery, or tanks, armored vehicles do not work, only a person with a gun can now fight from Russia. This will now go into battle, that is, just meat, plus, perhaps there will be support for missile systems of the S-300 type and so on. In the best case, this is what Russians expect now. Everyone is preparing for this, everyone understands that Putin will fight the methods of infantry of the Red Army of the Second World War, or even earlier periods, because the army rolled up to this time. More than half of all modern tanks have been lost. The front line is equal to the border of France, that is, it is a gigantic line of the front, and Putin needs to hold it, because otherwise everyone will understand that he threw Russia into an adventure. And he will hold the bodies of Russian citizens.

Mikhail Prutula

Elena Rykovtseva: Denis, you agree with this thesis (some people may relax when they hear him) that there will no longer be worse, the worst thing for Russia has already happened?

Denis Shenderovich: It is obvious that it may be worse for Russian citizens including. Obviously, Putin will fight to the last Russian. Such an option is likely as a colleague said when everyone will go in warmths in the form of cannon fodder. It's really worse. After all, when there was the so-called partial mobilization, people who were more or less loyal, who did not volunteer, but, in principle, did not mind going if they called him were called there. Those who did not want to go there did not go there. If he now announces the second wave of mobilization, then this, accordingly, will be forced mobilization of those who did not want to go from the very beginning. And this is a completely different story - this is exactly what could be worse. If martial law is introduced, then to households, not only businesses, this threatens the next double bottom as a gift, including the fall of income, since the fall of the economy will inevitably affect the income of Russians, which have fallen significantly quite significantly over the past year. Therefore, I suppose that it can be worse.

Obviously, Putin will fight to the last Russian

Another option, which we have not yet considered, is when he said that we would all go to heaven, and they all die, having in mind the nuclear threat, which Dmitry Medvedev spoke many times. This is also one of the scenarios. Why are they still trying to talk about something in the world, they haven’t called anywhere, but somehow trying to talk? If there were no nuclear weapons, it is obvious that the conversation would be completely different in this special operation. But the world showed that they are not afraid of nuclear batons: if you want - come on, use. But if this is not afraid, this does not mean that it is no worse. I believe that voiced criteria: mobilization, martial law - this greatly worsens the situation of Russians. If tactical nuclear weapons are also used, of course, this will worsen the situation not only of Russians, because retaliatory measures will follow, other options for the development of events. What you said on the streets - you presented two polar opinions. Some say that they are already tired of waiting for all this, they understand that you can expect the worst, while others say: we are ready, let's escalate. This is the main principle of power - “share and rule”, and Putin took advantage of them well, he shared people.

Mikhail Prutula: Let's talk about the variant of the nuclear threat. If he could use nuclear weapons, he would certainly have already used it.

Elena Rykovtseva: In what situation, what weapons, and how exactly would he use?

Apparently, Putin was going to use nuclear weapons, but the tests showed that he simply did not explode

Mikhail Prutula: I think that there was preparation for this, but Putin did not succeed. Why is it called Putin's nuclear bluff? Remember, in October the topic was very much swollen that Ukraine is preparing a "dirty bomb"? The Kremlin scared the whole world that Ukraine is trying to apply "dirty weapon". This is because there was no certainty that in the case of the use of nuclear weapons it would explode. If the nuclear bomb is trying to explode, and it is already vague, its components are overdue, then it turns into a “dirty bomb”, the dividing substance is simply scattered into a large territory, the area is pollution, but the nuclear explosion does not occur. Apparently, at that moment Putin was going to apply, but the trials that they conducted showed that he simply did not explode. In fact, over the entire life of Russia, more than 30 years, it was necessary to support 5 thousand warheads that Russia supposedly had in working condition. And this means - constantly with great accuracy to carry out the regulations, change the details.

Elena Rykovtseva: For some reason, I remembered the Mausoleum of Lenin, his body, which had to also be supported, change the details and so on.

Mikhail Prutula: Moreover, this is not just done. The nuclear warhead according to the standards of Russia should be served in the same site, at the same factory at which it was assembled. Imagine what finances should have been going to maintain huge nuclear potential in living condition? And finances were allocated to another place, went abroad, used for other purposes, they financed the economy of other countries. We remember what happened to the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov , they simply threw a crane at him, in the end he ceased to exist as an aircraft carrier, and Russia could not build a new one. The same thing, most likely, happened with the nuclear shield of Russia, it simply did not become. The likelihood that something can explode, I think it is simply equal to zero.

Putin says that there is a nuclear triad, there are missiles that are in the mines. These missiles were collected in Ukraine, in Dnepropetrovsk, they have been standing on combat duty for more than 34 years. For 34 years, constantly rotating mechanisms fail. The accuracy of these missiles, the possibility of starting them, is all under a huge question. But if Putin is an attempt to use this weapon on the part of Putin, then exercises were conducted in the United States, in Europe: what to do if Russia tries. At these command and staffing in situational offices, it was decided that the answer would not be nuclear, but with high-precision weapons-most likely, in nuclear facilities. We can look at the example of hostilities in Ukraine: the personnel is in some room, and a rocket arrives there with an accuracy of one meter. Such a high -precision weapon is very different from the weapons that is in Russia. This means that, for example, there is a mine, it is closed from above by a reinforced concrete lid, and there can fly a rocket with great accuracy, burn a hole in this lid with a cumulative charge. And that’s all, the rocket ceases to exist, there will be no answer. This was said by the CIA director by Naryshkin in Ankara on November 14, 2022.

The answer will not be nuclear, but high -precision weapons - most likely, according to Russian nuclear facilities

Elena Rykovtseva: Let's hope that Naryshkin is still not a stupid person, smart.

Mikhail Prutula: This is a professional person. Yes, he is our enemy, but, nevertheless, this is a smart person who knows what will happen if there is an attempt to use nuclear weapons.

Elena Rykovtseva: I would like to show one very, in my opinion, bright and instructive story. On the same evening, two mutually exclusive materials come out: one of them is a bravura, joyful, festive plot in the Vesti program about how India with pleasure buys weapons from the Russian Federation.

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The plot of VGTRK on the supply of weapons to India

Elena Rykovtseva: And now we are looking at what said in the evening of the same day on the channel of Mark Feigin Alexei Ardavtovich, speaking with the exact opposite text.

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Antyrevich about Russian weapons supply to India

Elena Rykovtseva: How do relations between Russia and India are still on the supply of weapons: she refuses them, or does she take them in a 13 millionth monetary dimension, all these planes?

Mikhail Prutula: Russian television always uses the fact that Russians have a poor memory for facts. I have a good memory, so I will remind our viewers such a thing: almost the whole of 2021, before the war, until the hot phase, Putin spent it in the bunker, no one saw him, he did not go to any country in the world. And suddenly in December 2021, Putin rises sharply, crawls out of the bunker and rides to Delhi. He, of course, is accepted at the highest level, they talk to him. But Putin had nothing to offer Delhi. Back in December, more than a year ago, Delii Politably, diplomatically refused Russia's services in the person of Putin to arm the army, gently explained that the Americans were already being weapons.

Russian television always uses the fact that Russians have a bad memory for facts

To date, any bravura messages of the Russian military commander that they are going to supply something somewhere, let's look through the prism of hostilities in Ukraine-let them first put something that they threaten to put in Delhi. They cannot provide their troops, what export can we talk about? More than one and a half years ago, Delhi was completely from Russian weapons.

Elena Rykovtseva: I was also surprised. I watched this plot, there is the head of Almaz-Antei , shows the layouts of some tanks, planes, and I could not understand: it seems to be not enough weapons, it seems that they would transfer the plants to full capacity to provide their army in the war with Ukraine, and suddenly such a plot! In fact, every Russian one should have such a question in the head as it is $ 13 billion to give weapons.

Mikhail Prutula: Russia spends about a billion dollars daily on maintaining hostilities in Ukraine. 13 billion - is this saving the Russian military industry? If 13 billion is so much for the Russian military industry, then let him take these 13 billion dollars from Putin, who brought them abroad, let Putin finance his industry and release weapons for his army. But this does not happen! During this war, Russia has already lost more than ten thousand units of armored vehicles. What will it supply India? Do not laugh. This is just a Russian propaganda window dressing, and that’s all.

In fact, Delhi refused any supply of any Russian weapons. What are the "shells" who show us what we are talking about? The shells cannot protect themselves from Ukrainian weapons, which is now. Why India to buy bad weapons that is not able to protect itself, its army? This is a senseless waste of money. Unlike Russia, in India they are able to count money. This is a huge country with a huge population. Yes, Putin has lost influence on India, which historically, since the time of the Soviet Union, has been one of the foreign policy "victories". Once the USSR had an influence on India, now it is a lost country for Putin, he has already lost this.

Let them first put something that they threaten to put in Delhi!

Elena Rykovtseva: In general, you need to double -check everything that is said, especially these festive plots.

News come. We started by the fact that the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia would come to the message, and we followed the statements precisely on the occasion of assumptions about which we said today: “The Constitution of Abkhazia does not allow us to discuss the topic of refusing sovereignty and entering another country,” said the secretary of the Security Council of Abkhazia Sergey Shamba, Sergei Shamba, the information portal of Abkhazia Today. That is, nevertheless, we were worried about all these conversations, scared them in Abkhazia?

Denis Shenderovich: Here, whatever the news is an occasion to think. If you notice, from February 2 to 10, the Bank of Russia announced that the reserve fund was reduced by $ 12 billion, from 601 to 589 billion. Where to take $ 12 billion, the Bank of Russia does not say. Again, think of yourself for what, where and why such money is spent. The fact that they became worried is a fact. Do they want? It seems to me that if the decision has already been made, then they will not be particularly asking. What will follow is this, of course, is a big question. My opinion remains such that he has no other option on how to escort the conflict. He will not go to any concessions, no mitigation, no negotiations, he, as his notorious newly-known propagandist-singer sang, will go to the end.

Denis Shenderovich

Elena Rykovtseva: But there is still no soil for contracts, simply not.

I want to read you news about Medvedchuk. Two characters today actually appeared out of oblivion. Medvedchuk on the air of Channel One said that he lives in Moscow, and turned publicly to all Ukrainians: “I want to say, referring to Ukrainians who do not support Zelensky: we need to unite, we need to show what another Ukraine is in fact that is different and does Zelensky, who wages the war to the last Ukrainian in the interests of the West. The damper and close this barrier to his crimes. " The second character who crawled today is Vladislav Surkov, whom Ilya Ponomarev once safely “put” under house arrest. A few months ago, the news went that Surkov was sitting under house arrest, Ilya Ponomarev said that his two Moscow sources were leaked to him. Since then, Surkov was not heard and was not visible, it was not clear, he was under arrest, not under arrest. Today he appears in the form of three answers “yes” and one “no”. Just like in a referendum. No, Surkov says, it was impossible to fulfill the Minsk agreements. Why are all these appearance: Surkov - with the fact that they could not be fulfilled, and Medvedchuk - with a call to unite all Ukrainians?

Putin will not go to any concessions, softening, negotiations, he will go to the end

Mikhail Prutula: Medvedchuk would probably have to calculate how many Ukrainians are not supporting the actions of the Ukrainian authorities now. Just zero. He probably turned to himself. Ukraine really became a country very united against Russian aggression. He has already fulfilled Medvedchuk’s call - Ukraine has united, but only in the other direction. Just the unprofessionalism of Medvedchuk has always been. On the one hand, he seems to be a competent politician, but on the other hand, he regularly makes catastrophic mistakes for himself and for the country. Why he does this, I do not know, however, he had these mistakes, they have been coming from the time when he had presidential ambitions a long time ago.

Elena Rykovtseva: Does this have at least some meaning-all attempts by the Russian Federation to let it into the arena?

Mikhail Prutula: Both Surkov’s performance and the performance of Medvedchuk - Russia is simply trying to probe options for peace negotiations on its conditions. Although in fact Putin has the only option - it is simply without any conditions to turn on propaganda back and withdraw their troops from the occupied territory, from Crimea and Donbass.

Elena Rykovtseva: Putin does not have this option, you understand. It's like going and shooting off.

Mikhail Prutula: just he will save his life, this is the matter, and all other options lead him to death. This option retains him the life and integrity of Russia.

Elena Rykovtseva: He does not need a life that will be after this option. For him, this is a shame, oblivion in the eyes of the people. He thinks so, believes that the people will not forgive him for this. He thinks that the people want this war, he was so inspired, he believes in it.

Mikhail Prutula: Of course, he believes. We know how the Russians react to propaganda and prohibitions to say anything else. We approach people on the streets and ask: tell me, how do you feel about war? What should the Russian say? If he says that he does not support the war, he immediately earns his term.

Elena Rykovtseva: I also talk about this all the time: when you say that 37% against the war, it is strange that these 37 replied that they were against it. You can not pose a question for a person who leads to imprisonment.

Russia is simply trying to feel the options for peace negotiations on its conditions

Mikhail Prutula: We immediately ask: when you say that you support the war, are you holding the figure in your pocket or not? Will they voluntarily go to the military registration and enlistment office tomorrow? No, they won’t go, they will wait for the agenda. Here is the answer to the question whether they support the war. They may support the war, but they themselves do not want to go to fight. And those who wanted to have already died. They perfectly understand that in Ukraine only death awaits them.

Елена Рыковцева: Я не успела показать маленький фрагмент из пресс-конференции Александра Лукашенко, который говорит, что если Украина на нас не нападет, мы на нее тоже не нападем. Будем мы считать, что 21 февраля Владимир Путин не присоединит к себе, по крайней мере, Беларусь?

Михаил Притула: Мы не можем гарантировать ничего. Что ему сейчас делать, чтобы сохранить свою власть?

Елена Рыковцева: Хорошо, подождем, во вторник увидим.