Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online February 20
The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.
THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL OR IS RELATED TO THE ACTIVITIES OF A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL. 18+
18:23 Rosstat estimated the fall in GDP at the end of last year at 2.1%. This is less than estimated by the Central Bank (-2.5%) and predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development (-2.9%).
17:56 Ingosstrakh and Tatyana Moskalkova may be included in the tenth package of EU sanctions, EUobserver has learned . In total, about 60 people will fall under personal sanctions - these are deputy ministers, deputies, senators, prosecutors, military leaders and propagandists. In addition, the new package of sanctions includes 28 legal entities that face an asset freeze in Europe and a ban on doing business there.
14:15 Raiffeisen quotes fell on news of OFAC interest
Austrian Raiffeisen Bank International tumbled almost 7.5% on Monday on news that OFAC, the US Treasury Department's "sanctions" division, sent a request to the bank in connection with Russia and Ukraine. The subsidiary of Raiffeisen in Russia remains one of the few banks operating in Russia that have not been sanctioned or disconnected from SWIFT.
about the OFAC request Reuters wrote , but the bank explained that it was not associated with any particular transaction or company, but contained a request “to clarify some details of the operation of payment systems and related business processes in light of recent events related to Russia and Ukraine.”
According to a Reuters source, OFAC was interested in the bank's exposure to Russia, Donbass, Ukraine and Syria, as well as the activity of individuals. The bank promised to provide all the requested data in three tranches by June, although the regulator wanted to receive them in February.
The Italian UniCredit, which also continues to operate in Russia, has not received such requests.
13:30 Bloomberg estimated the size of the shadow fleet carrying Russian oil
According to Trafigura , it has about 600 tankers, including 400 oil tankers (the rest carry oil products). The estimate of shipowners is somewhat lower: 10-12% of the world's tanker fleet. The total cost of these vessels is estimated at $2.2 billion.
In 2022 alone, more than 100 used tankers of various classes were sold to unknown owners - for some classes, this is a fourfold increase by 2021. The amount of these transactions is estimated at $850 million, and market participants are sure that most of them have a “Russian trace”.
The transport efficiency of this fleet is low due to the fact that European sanctions have forced Russia to transport oil across half the world. But the fact that a significant part of the fleet dropped out of the "white" transportation means an increase in freight for the rest.
13:07 Ukrainian media wrote that Biden will announce the transfer of F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, but this information is not confirmed. The White House release says it is announcing deliveries of artillery shells, anti-tank weapons and air defense radars.
13:01 Joe Biden arrives in Kyiv, Ukrainian media report
The visit is confirmed by eyewitness video. The President of the United States is accompanied by Volodymyr Zelensky. Earlier, IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva arrived in the capital of Ukraine (whose arrival was explained by the closed center of Kyiv). Biden's arrival in Ukraine was kept secret - it was assumed that he would not go further than Poland.
11:06 In February, budget expenditures became even higher than in January
Operational data on the execution of the Russian budget by February 16 indicated not only a faster growth in spending, but also its acceleration by January, drew the attention of the MMI channel.
Budget revenues since the beginning of the year amounted to 951 billion rubles, expenditures - 4.92 trillion rubles, and the deficit, therefore, is 3.97 trillion rubles. On average, this gives expenses of 105 billion rubles a day, which is extrapolated to an excess of expenses over planned for the year by 9 trillion rubles, instead of the estimated 4.3 trillion rubles.
If we count only in February, 113 billion rubles a day are already being spent, which gives an excess of 11 trillion rubles.
Although the extrapolation of non-linear indicators for the whole year for one and a half months should be treated with caution, the trend is obvious. At the beginning of the year, budget expenditures were always restrained, and it is unlikely that only the accelerated advance of contracts by the Ministry of Finance in the current year could have led to such a result. “The situation with the budget, in our opinion, has become the main pro-inflationary risk for the economy. This is also a risk for the OFZ market and the ruble,” states the channel.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Over the weekend, Roskomnadzor decided to start blocking The Bell website. It will soon become more difficult to read us in Russia, but there are several ways to continue doing this, especially since there is no responsibility for reading blocked sites in Russia. More details - here .
- The idea of a one-time payment from companies is changing : it will not be “voluntary”, but tax, the cut-off threshold (1 billion rubles of profit) will pass along the border between large and medium-sized businesses, and it will be possible to credit the received 300 billion rubles directly to the budget. This is not the worst option for companies, which, however, have yet to understand exactly how the contribution will be calculated and from what profit.
- New US sanctions against Russia, synchronized with package the tenth EU , will focus on tight export controls and closing loopholes for supplies to Russia through third countries. Newcomers to the list will be several Russian defense and energy companies, unnamed banks and several individuals.
- The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has just summarized the statistics of EU exports to Russia's partner countries for May-July last year. Exports to Russia decreased by 56% compared to the pre-Covid 2017-2019 years, to Belarus - by 39%. But to Kyrgyzstan it grew by 84%, to Armenia - by 72%, to Tajikistan - by 21%, to Georgia - by 19% and to Kazakhstan - by 14%.
- Goldman Sachs sees China's economy transitioning from opening to recovery, with Chinese equities (MSCI China Index) up 24% by the end of the year. At the close on Friday, the index lost 8% to the peak of the end of January.
- Meta (recognized as extremist in Russia) introduces paid authorized accounts on Facebook and Instagram blocked in Russia under the Meta Verified brand. The blue checkmark and enhanced personal account hijacking protection will cost $15 per month for iOS and Android users and $12 for PC users.
- By the year of the war, The Washington Post and The New York Times independently published essentially the same articles. The main message of both is that Vladimir Putin, suffering defeat after defeat outside of Russia, changed the country in his own image and likeness in a way that seemed completely impossible a year ago.