About sanctions

There is an unobvious, but inevitable consequence of economic sanctions. This is an instant growth of the black market, gigantic size corruption and the rapid formation of organized crime. Moreover, this does not happen in the country that became the object of sanctions. There, as a rule, everything controls the power apparatus of the state. Erosion affects neighboring countries primarily due to smuggling, as well as different states with opaque processes and institutions.

For example, North Africa countries rushed to buy up Russian oil products. The bursts of purchases are noticed in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Algeria. There is no doubt that raw materials are re -exported back to Europe. Moreover, not local business is engaged in this, just local authorities clearly allow us to use their countries as gaskets.

I am sure that Central Asia, Armenia and Georgia are now actively adjusting to new economic realities. In general, I suspect that such a demonstrative loyalty to the Georgian authorities in Moscow is explained exactly the same. There is a competition, who will become the beneficiary of the new channels of parallel imports and the frankly black smuggling market. And they decide how financial flows will go, they will be in the Kremlin. The temptation to earn extra money on Russian money also succumbed to some European countries. Now it will be forbidden to them, which means that flows will pour through the South Caucasus and Central Asia, worsening already not the strongest institutions and not the most transparent procedures.

And the loyalty and readiness of local authorities to pursue Russian opposition and activists, as well as counteracting Western influence, becomes a fee. Therefore, these countries cease to be safe for leaving Russians.

So it has been in recent history many times. Everyone knows about the dry law in the States (and what was fed from this as a mafia in the United States itself, so the Irish Republican Army through the ocean). But for example, organized crime in Bulgaria in the 1990s grew like yeast against the background of sanctions against Serbia. The smuggling from Asia to Europe for many years was in full swing. Bulgaria still cannot join Schengen due to insufficient boundaries control.

In March 2022, the European Union introduced a ban on the import of Belarusian wood and lumber. As soon as the sanctions began to operate, export from Kazakhstan to the EU grew 74 times, and from Kyrgyzstan - about 18 thousand (!) Times.

The goods find their bypass channels, money - even more so, but enriched and develop as a result of a structure, the survivability of which is often stronger than political regimes.

This is the reverse side of the sanctions. The paradox is that their effectiveness takes time. But it is their duration that creates economic grounds for organized crime. Now she earns not only on the traffic of illegal drugs and weapons, but on all types of goods that the country needs. A country with a population of 140+ million people need in many ways.

The above does not mean that sanctions are not needed. But you need to realize their cons and make efforts to neutralize them. In pursuit of political glasses, world political leaders can give rise to such a new La Piovra that we are all tormented.

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