Was there a plan?

Is Chinese peaceful proposals to implement and why the Chinese released them

Well, it seems, everyone who is supposed to be publicly discussed Chinese 12 points on the “political decision of the Ukrainian crisis” (as in the document published by China Foreign Ministry on February 24).

12 Chinese peacefuls: free retelling

• Respect the sovereignty of all countries. Compliance with international laws, including the UN Charter. Guaranteeing sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries.

• Abandon the Cold War mentality. The safety of one country cannot be achieved at the expense of other countries, and regional security cannot be ensured by strengthening or expanding military units. To promote the construction of a balanced and stable architecture of European security, "to prevent the formation of camp confrontations."

• Stop fire. There are no winners in the wars, it is necessary to all parties "to maintain rationality and restraint, it is impossible to allow the exit from the control of the Ukrainian crisis." It is necessary to resume the direct dialogue of Russia and Ukraine, to contribute to de -escalation and "achieve a comprehensive ceasefire."

• Start peaceful negotiations. Negotiations are the only real way out of the Ukrainian crisis. The international community must create conditions and provide a platform for negotiations.

• Allow the humanitarian crisis. To protect the safety of civilians, create humanitarian corridors for their evacuation, build humanitarian aid and maintain the role of the UN in this matter.

• Protect civilians and prisoners of war. The parties to the conflict should refrain from attacks on civilians and civilian objects, protect women and children, as well as respect the rights of prisoners of war. It is necessary to create favorable conditions for the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine.

• Maintain the safety of nuclear power plants. Confronting armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities, in particular at nuclear power plants. The parties must comply with the Convention on Nuclear Safety and avoid technogenic nuclear accidents.

• Reduce strategic risks. You can not use nuclear weapons and threaten its use. The same applies to biological and chemical weapons.

• Guarantee the export of grain. All parties must comply with the agreement on the transportation of grain by the Black Sea, signed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN in 2022.

• Stop unilateral sanctions. China urges all countries not to abuse unilateral sanctions.

• Ensure stability of production and supply chains. It is necessary to withstand politics and use for military purposes of the world economy. Prevent the breakdown of international cooperation in the areas of energy, finance, grain and transport.

• Promote the post -exceeded restoration. The international community should take measures to support post -war recovery in conflict zones. China itself is ready to play a constructive role in this matter.

The reactions of all sides are understandable and expected. Despite the fundamental differences in assessments, there is also what unites everyone: no one considers these proposals as a real plan that can be taken as a basis and move towards the world. Everyone took up the main search for correspondences/inconsistencies of individual Chinese theses to their views on the ongoing military conflict and their priorities in its development and completion.

Ms. Zakharova, for example, on behalf of the Russian Foreign Ministry “highly appreciates” and “shares” Beijing’s considerations. Especially highlighting what was nominated by Russia more than once: “Security’s indivisibility” and the neutral-unit status of Ukraine (which also appeared in the requirements of the Russian Federation to the West in the fall of 2021), the inadmissibility of “illegitimate” sanctions that were not approved by the UN Security Council, as well as the readiness to “achieve the goals of their political and diplomatic means”. Moreover, this readiness is determined by traditional and clearly impossible requirements for any Ukrainian authorities - in particular, “the termination of the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine”, as well as “recognition of new territorial realities”.

How the latter is consistent with the approval of the first point of Chinese proposals (after all, they are divided like “reasons of Beijing” as a whole) about observing the territorial integrity of all countries, it is incomprehensible.

Apparently, it is meant that this observance should begin only from the moment of the inclusion of Crimea, and later Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson region in Russia.

US President Joe Biden was concise and straightforward in the characterization of the Chinese plan: “Putin welcomes him. How can he be good? <...> I have not seen anything in this regard that would testify that it contains something that would be beneficial to anyone else, with the exception of Russia. ” The US position was more detailed and frank by the coordinator of strategic communications in the White House Council of John Kirby: “We saw it [the plan], we read it, we think that, frankly, we could stop immediately after the first two lines” ( about respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and, apparently, as a universal principle, and not with temporary conditions. - A. L. ). According to him, it is not necessary to cease fire, but first “succeed on the battlefield”, and then, they say, you can consider the possibility of negotiations.

In general, the Americans are mercilessly and from all sides criticize their main “potential enemy”, considering it exclusively pro -Russian and insincere.

After all, not only did China condemned the Russian military operations in Ukraine, did not join the sanctions and continues to maintain relations with Russia, moreover, there are suspicions of his intention to secretly supply weapons and military equipment to Russia (the head of the URI William Burns spoke about this in an interview with CBS).

More refined and aimed at maintaining the relative neutrality of China in the conflict (and maybe at least some displacement towards Ukraine) was the reaction of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky . Although this is not a plan, but only a presentation of some thoughts of the Chinese leadership about the conflict, in China’s proposals there are, in his opinion, points that can be agreed with. “I believe that if there are thoughts that, in one way or another, coincide with the respect of international law, territorial integrity and some things relating to security, I think we should use this in the normal sense of the word and work with China in this paragraph, why not?” - said Zelensky. And he added that he plans to meet with Xi Jinping.

The role of the “bad investigator”, besides not burdened by the tasks of a large multi -vector diplomacy, was performed by the adviser to the head of the president’s office, Mikhail Podolyak , who said that “any“ peaceful plan ”is only with the termination of fire and, as a result, a new line of demarcation” (an obvious hint of the Minsk agreements) is not suitable, because it leads not to the world, but to the next “laughs” military operations and military operations and to the next “laughs” military operations and defeat of Ukraine. “The Ukrainian position is known - the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of 1991,” Podolyak wrote on Twitter.

The representative of the EU Josep Borrel wrote on the Blog about the Chinese plan that this is not a plan, but only a presentation of a number of famous Chinese theses and that his "key problem is that he does not distinguish the aggressor from the victim, putting the sides to an equal level." And the Secretary General of NATO Stoltenberg said almost in a heavenly one,

that "there is no great trust in China, since he did not condemn <...> [special military operation] of Russia in Ukraine."

The Chancellor of Germany Olaf Sholts , being in India, said that the weakness of the plan is that there is no clear line that says: Russian troops should also be withdrawn. ” And the French President Emmanuel Macron did not remember the plan at all, but he announced his intention to visit China in April in order to resume contacts with Beijing, including dialogue for conflict in Ukraine.

And now about China, the author of these February abstracts. There are many questions. What are these proposals about? They play along with Russia or hint to her that it is time to end with this? With the simultaneous wink of the West, they say, we do not need this conflict either, but we have to be able to conduct business with Moscow? Why did China get out with this plan? And is it a plan?

Let's start from the end. Of course, this is not a plan, not a settlement route, not its roadmap. And each of the parties that commented on it seems to have understood.

Blurry, PR -type general formulations, lack of concretization and procedures for the implementation, circle and level of possible participants. Moreover, proposed by the country, which does not have experience and tools for resolving such conflicts.

Not to mention the fact that one of the main substantive points of the declared practical actions is the ceasefire, on which neither the Ukrainian side nor its Western allies at this stage of hostilities categorically intend to agree, seeing in this Minsk-3 and the transition to the unstable and fraught with the next delayed conflict of the new dividing line. They hope for a new Ukrainian offensive and a certain victory of Ukraine with the help of Western weapons, the contours of which, however, are very foggy.

Either this refers to the return of the territories that Ukraine lost after February 24 last year. Either this package also includes DPR/LPR until February 24 and Crimea. Either this is generally a “defeat” to the extent of the inability to threaten any of the neighbors (this option is especially popular in Poland and the Baltic countries). The “defeat”, accompanied by the financial costs of Russia to restore the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure and all kinds of courts over the guilty, according to the international community, in war crimes.

Most likely, China did not imply any practical roadmap. This is more like the almost annual “peaceful initiatives”

Which were to constantly demonstrate to the world his peaceful projects (compiled, of course, under his interests), despite their, for the most part, the rejection of other participants in international relations.

But the “pleasant sediment” remained, and the USSR had in the world community, mainly in the third world, among the post -colonial countries, as well as in the left -breeding environment of European countries, the reputation of a peaceful and fair power. That is, the USSR gave the world certain “signals”, which many were caught and facilitated by the power of its policy.

China, who skillfully building relations with a diverse outside world, is not a noby ally and categorically not striving for such a status, self-sufficient, internally prone to hegemony and more and more approaching in his economic and military-political development to the possibility of its real incarnation, it is necessary to show itself to the world with similar initiatives. And at the same time, to solve a number of propaganda and subtle diplomatic problems with their help.

The Ukrainian conflict, in which China adheres to moderate neutrality, gives such opportunities. And his 12 proposals for the “ political decision of the Ukrainian crisis” are not a pro -Russian and not pro -Western action. This document - in which China’s main positions are collected in the Ukrainian crisis, which have repeatedly expressed it - -

Must send different intensities “signals” in different directions of its, China, current and promising political and economic interests.

If we disassemble the Chinese “plan” by points, then we will see many plots that are not only about Ukraine with Russia, but also about China. First of all, it is clear that the current military operations - neither in the form of today's own, nor in more expanded due to the escalation of military operations - China is not needed. They force him to maneuver between the conflicting parties, in which he is interested in various reasons, break his grandiose macro -political and economic projects, and deform the system of world financial and economic logistics. This leads to a decrease in growth rate, to the narrowing of the corridors of his world expansion.

Therefore, it is not surprising that China has long been calling for peaceful resolution of the conflict and peaceful negotiations. As well as to refuse “unilateral sanctions” and violations of “stability of production and supply chains” (see paragraphs 10 and 11).

Not wanting to maintain sanctions against Russia, he not only does not want to quarrel with the “younger partner” he needs, not only “plays along” to him, but also cares about himself.

Moreover, not all, starting with Trump’s presidency, to put it mildly, cloudlessly in his current relations with the United States, and he already felt the nuisance of secondary sanctions. And in general, China is not inclined to lose profitable ties with the Western world.

In turn, the topic of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is not “playing along” the West, Ukraine, and even the overwhelming number of members of the UN General Assembly, referring to the UN Charter and other international legal documents. This is the protection of its national-state interests, since China considers Taiwan to be its territory, its province and alarm with anxiety, the tension around the “Taiwanese problem” of the United States (not without contribution to this injection and the Chinese side itself, of course).

The second point of proposals is also associated with this - about the departure from the Cold War’s mentality. To prevent “camp confrontations” and ensuring regional security by strengthening and expanding military blocs - this is not only about “European security architecture” and the support of Russian theses advanced to Western countries. This is about regional security in Southeast Asia,

This is a signal of China’s concern about the creation of Aukus-the Australian military alliance, Great Britain and the USA to “restrain” China in the South China Sea.

China is very inconvenient in the conditions of the current breakdown of international relations. He is not averse to maintaining Russian rhetoric about the need for a multipolar world, about the inadmissibility of “Western dictatorship” in international organizations and security systems, about “index security”. But at the same time, he does not want to lose the advantages of the “world factory”, tied on relations with developed countries, as well as at risk of his extensive transport communications, ensuring economic expansion in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

So, the peaceful initiatives set forth in 12 points should be considered not so much as a specific plan for the settlement of the armed conflict in Ukraine, but rather as a demonstration of the world, including the West, the commitment of China to peaceful methods and rules of international life, as well as a message of various signaling signals about Chinese life interests.