Who, if not Trump?

The promised arrest of the former US president did not seem to take place. How will this situation affect the alignment of forces among the Republicans on the eve of the start of the 2024 campaign?

Despite the fact that Donald Trump officially announced his intention to participate in the 2024 presidential race in the last November, the serious preparation of the ex-White House for the elections began recently. It is possible that the arrest announced by Trump himself and while his arrest-in connection with one of the series of accusations set against him, is nothing more than a PR riding: it is quite in the style of a man who promised to make “America again the great”.

Criminal charges against Trump, even if they are eventually put forward, will not formally prevent his participation in the presidential race. Nevertheless, the chances that Trump will be able to overcome the stage of republican primaries and become a single candidate from the party is not as great as they may seem. The most conservative part of the Republicans - the traditional electorate of Trump - may well be liked by other candidates: in particular, Ron landing, whom the press has already dubbed "Trump with the brains and without drama." Are there any chances of the Republicans to get rid of the upcoming elections from the former president, but at the same time not to aggravate the already serious split in the party, ”the American Pavel Sharikov understood. Starting from this text, Novyevropa opens a series of publications in which it will be detailed to track what is happening at the US presidential campaign in the United States of 2024.

The fulfillment of Donald Trump's promises about his own arrest, “appointed”, as it was allegedly known from the leakage of the District Prosecutor Manhattan, revealed by the former president on Tuesday March 22, is clearly postponed. Trump tried to repeat his move dated January 6, 2021 [ The day of the assault on the Capitol supporters, who considered the counting of votes in the elections dishonest. - approx. Ed. ] and called for his voters to protest in the event of the detention of the former president. However, this time his calculation, most likely, wouldnot have been justified .

This is not to say that Trump has lost popularity: most Americans are skeptical of it, but about 40% stably express support in surveys .

These figures should be enough to win the primaries of the Republican Party and again participate in the presidential race in the 2024 elections. However, to consider Trump's arrest, probably, is also better not so much as a real threat of detention, but as the beginning of a pre-election struggle and a PR rider made to mobilize supporters who will have to support the billionaire in rivalry with other republican candidates for primaries.

Forty -fifth and forty -seventh

Despite the fact that until the day of voting remains another one and a half years, the first primaries in the early States will be held at the beginning of 2024. The schedule has already been published, according to which in New York and Nevada the primaries were scheduled for February 6. But the first intra-party voting will traditionally be held in Aiova and New Hampshire, where the rule is valid to assign elections a week until the very early state.

Traditionally, presidential candidates announce their intentions to participate in the elections and begin preparations for the campaign by the end of the spring of the previous one before the elections of the year. And yet, only a few candidates officially stated that they would run, the political season can be considered open. Given that all the procedures after the intermediate elections to the Congress ended: the inauguration of new congressmen and senators passed, lists of members and heads of committees were approved.

To date, it is obvious that the factor of Trump is becoming the most important variable that determines the outcome of the republican primaries. Apparently, he intends to repeat that the only time in history he managed to make President Clover Cleveland. In 1884, Cleveland won the US presidential election, but after his first term, he lost the White House Benjamin Harris. In 1893, he again won the election, thus becoming the 22nd and 24th president of the United States . Trump, respectively, has non-zero chances to become simultaneously the 45th and 47th president of America.

The affairs of the former president

However, all new difficulties along this path from Trump appear literally every day. Right now, several court proceedings are underway against the former president.

Firstly, the requirement to publish tax returns remains open. The data disclosed at the end of last year showed that Trump, as a billionaire, almost did not pay taxes, declaring the loss of companies belonging to him, as previously approved in the New York Times investigation .

Secondly, one more thing is connected with the alleged pressure of Trump to the administration of the state of Georgia. After calculating the first results in the 2020 elections, Trump allegedly persuaded the Secretary of State of Brad Raffensperger to count the votes in favor of the Republican. The “large jury” of the state, which for several months in closed mode considered all the circumstances of the case and called the closest Trump's associates for interrogations, will quite possibly lead to a nomination against the former president of criminal charges.

And finally, thirdly, the most high-profile case, because of which Trump announced his arrest, is connected with the charge of illegally spending election funds for the payment of porn actress Stormy Daniels for the silence of the allegedly held between her and Donald Trump of love affair.

The electoral law prohibits making such expenses from the electoral fund, and the violation may be punishable until criminal prosecution. Trump himself has long insisted that all payments were made from his personal funds, and therefore he did not endure the law.

All these accusations, even if any of them ends in a criminal case, actually does not legally prevent Trump for the President. However, the abundance of claims can negatively affect the support of Trump among the Republicans, who will first vote for him on the primaries.

Trump factor

Most of the main candidates from the Republican Party have not yet nominated their candidates and have not announced their readiness to participate in the presidential election. Until the end of spring, politics traditionally evaluate their prospects, give voters different hints, test how public opinion will react to them. In American political language, this behavior is called the word “flirtation”.

However, it is already quite clear that the Republican Party sets himself the task of doing everything possible so that Donald Trump does not win the primaries. In 2016, Trump's campaign was really a textbook. He managed to take many votes from the democratic opponent and win at the expense of masterfully used political technologies , especially in the so -called. "Valileeing States." In 2020, Trump was no longer possible to crank up this trick, and even more so it would be difficult to repeat the success in 2024, taking into account the accusations sounding to the former president.

Despite the fact that Trump still associates himself with the American conservatives, and they make up the majority of supporters of the Republican Party, his authority is greatly undermined among them. Nevertheless, the Republican automatically opposes Trump for his nuclear electorate, who has put forward his candidacy in the elections, and they will no longer receive their votes to the primaries. This makes the future struggle more stringent and uncompromising.

Already advanced

To date, there are at least two other candidates from the Republicans who have already decided to challenge Trump and officially announced their intention to participate in the presidential race.

Firstly, this is Nikki Haley , the former governor of South Carolina, as well as the US representative to the UN in the administration of Donald Trump. It is very inferior to the former president in popularity at the national level. Moreover, although in 2006 the prospect of participating in the presidential election of Condolisia Rice was actively discussed , today the nomination of a woman-candidate from the Republicans will meet the powerful resistance of American conservatives-the main audience of Trump.

Currently, in addition to Nikki Haley, there are several popular women politicians in the Republican Party. For example, the head of the National Party Committee is Ronna McDaniel, a niece of the former presidential candidate Mitt Romni, who was re -elected in January 2023. Many drew attention to Sarah Khakabi Sanders, the daughter of another republican politician (Mike Khakabi), who very harshly voiced the official republican position regarding the appeal of President Biden Congress in early 2023. However, none of them, unlike Haley, has yet officially announced the entry into the presidential race.

The second honestly declared candidate from the Republicans became an entrepreneur of Indian origin by Viveku Ramasva . Now the businessman is 37 years old, he has no political experience and has never participated in the election campaign at any level. All these factors guarantee that the ramasi will not receive the support of the American political establishment, which is extremely important for a successful performance in the primaries. The candidates similar to ramas appear more and more often and, despite the dubious prospects of victory, take an active part in the election campaign.

According to the Materials of Forbes , Ramasva owns Roviant Sciences, which develops innovative drugs, often acquiring drugs that have forgotten or lost popularity in the pharmaceutical industry. Perhaps his calculation is that the demonstration of political ambitions and popular recognition in case of successful participation in primaries will allow the businessman to strengthen the position in the pharmaceutical business or form the image of the “capitalist with a human face”.

In addition, with ramas, it can expect that in case of successful participation in the campaign, the future American president, guided by “coalition logic”, will appoint him to his office. For example, in 2016-after Trump’s victory in the election-the US Ministry of Housing and Urban Development was headed by Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, known for the world's first successful operation to separate the Siamese twins, the author of several books and a motivational speaker. The only reason Trump could appoint Karson as Minister is his successful participation in the primaries of 2016 and the subsequent (after leaving the race) support for the Trump campaign.

Real rivals

Among the possible candidates capable of competing Trump are called many different names. Potential opponents can be divided into three categories.

Firstly, these are former employees of the Trump administration. Among these are distinguished former vice president Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and even John Bolton, who was a national security assistant.

With each of them, Donald Trump is in conflict after they work in the administration. Since the beginning of 2023, each of them announced that he would decide on his participation in the presidential race in the coming months. Each participation will influence the Trump factor. Michael Pence, a former vice president, in late February in an interview with NBC said he " almost decided ." The participation of the former vice president in the presidential election is a logical continuation of the political career. Pence cylinding will be a blow to Trump's prospects, given the high position that the Pence held in the administration of the former president.

Mike Pompeo stated that he would make a decision “ within a few months ”. John Bolton continues to " think " about participation. The foreign policy, to which Pompeo and Bolton were directly related to, as a rule, is not so interested in the American voter, especially from conservative circles. These candidates have fewer chances of victory than Pence, but at the same time they can play an important role in republican primaries, taking away voters from Trump.

The second group is the old opponents of Trump from the Republican Party. For example, Liz Cheney , a former congression from Vaiming, daughter of ex-vice-president Richard Cheney. She consistently criticized Trump and was one of the 10 Republicans who supported the impeachment of the president in 2020. Then the impeachment was associated with a telephone conversation with the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky. Trump was accused of using Zelensky to receive incriminating evidence against Joseph and Hunter Bidenov.

Later, Liz Cheney, headed the event on the investigation of events on January 6, 2021, related to the assault on the Capitol supporters of Trump. Apparently, a sharp anti -Tramp position cost Cheyny a place in the House of Representatives: the Republican lost in the intermediate elections of 2022.

Another oppositionist Trump is the Governor of the state of Florida Ron landing . The former member of the House of Representatives, and since 2018 - the governor of the state of Florida, was an ally of Trump, but in 2022 he began to position almost as the main competitor of the former president in the 2024 elections. In the summer of 2022, after the hearing in the event on the investigation of events on January 6, against the backdrop of a powerful blow to Trump's image, public opinion polls recorded the rapid growth of the landing rating. Later, landing won the election of the governor of Florida, and the Financial Times began to call him a “Trump with and without drama.”

The situation will become much more interesting if the former speaker of the House of Representatives, who represented the staff of Wisconsin for 20 years, enters the presidential race - Paul Ryan . Having an impeccable history of victories in the elections (a member of the House of Representatives is re -elected every two years), he remained undefeated, refusing to run after the next term of office in 2018. After that, he entered the board of directors Fox Corporation, a number of other companies. He represents the moderate wing of the Republican Party, was never a supporter of Trump, and in 2023 he had already made a number of very sharp anti -Tramp statements. In particular, Ryan said that "he would support anyone but Trump."

Paul Ryan - born in 1970, which in the eyes of voters can favorably distinguish him from the aging representatives of the republican establishment. Ryan represents a “oscillating” Visconsin state, capable of strengthening the support of the Republicans in the entire northwestern region of the United States, which is extremely important for the final voting results of each parties. If the candidate can unite the states of the entire region, the probability of victory in the general elections is increasing multiplying.

The third category is Trump's past rivals, participants in previous election campaigns. At different times, they treated Trump differently. These include Tekhas Senator Ted Cruise, a senator from Kentukka Rand Paul, former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie. Given that in 2020, the Republican Party was not held in the primaries, the last fight of political opponents was in 2016, in connection with which it is quite difficult to evaluate their electoral prospects. Nevertheless, in 2016, it was TEL CRUZ who turned out to be the last “traditional” Republican from the distance, after which Donald Trump received the nomination

Crisis nearby?

The current alignment of forces in the Republicans resembles the period of the 2016 campaign. The party again has a crisis of leadership. None of the candidates is able to unite all republican voters. This is what Donald Trump used in 2016, methodically dealing with each of the 18 opponents participating in the primaries.

7 years ago, when Trump already attracted attention and made himself many enemies among the Republicans, he threatened that he could run for an independent candidate. Then such a prospect was perceived as bluff, given that such a step would deprive the chances of the victory of both Trump and any republican candidate. Having gritted their teeth, the Republicans supported Donald Trump.

To a certain extent, history is repeated today.

The decisive role in whether the Republican Party Donald Trump nominates as a candidate or not, the party committee plays.

In January, the election of the Chairman of the Committee was held, following which Ronna McDaniel again took this position, who was appointed under Trump at one time. The committee is unlikely to refuse Trump, but will not support it, especially when other candidates will join the race. In 2023, members of the National Republican Committee are much more careful about Trump.

Many observers note that the prospect of Trump's participation as an independent candidate in the event he loses republican primaries is preserved. And this promises bad prospects for any Republican to become the owner of the White House in 2024.

Для того чтобы обеспечить единство в Республиканской партии, Макдэниэл распорядилась : каждый участник республиканских праймериз должен был подписать обязательство поддержать победителя и не участвовать в дальнейшей президентской кампании в качестве независимого кандидата. Семь лет назад то же самое предлагал сделать ее предшественник Ринс Прибус из-за позиции Дональда Трампа.

В ближайшее время республиканскому истеблишменту предстоит принять важное решение: делать ли ставку на выборах в 2024 году на бывшего президента Дональда Трампа или нет. С учетом всех вводных — широкой палитры альтернативных кандидатов, снижения рейтинга Трампа, в том числе среди его ядерного электората, и наконец, перспективы уголовного преследования бывшего президента, — чаша весов склоняется не в пользу Трампа. Тем не менее, риск участия Трампа в предвыборной гонке отдельно от республиканцев, — в случае, если он не подпишет обязательство, которое пытается продвинуть Ронна Макдэниэл, — грозит углублением раскола в партии, который, вероятно, перевесит все остальные риски.