The war destroyed the trade and economic relations of Ukraine and Russia. But experts believe that the shadow market will develop

The main thing from the study "BBC"

Before the start of a full -scale war, Russia and Ukraine were large trading partners. In 2021, Ukraine occupied a 15-month in the list of main external trading partners of Russia, its share was almost 2%, and the trade turnover between the countries exceeded $ 12 billion. But during the year of the war, these indicators were minimized. The Russian BBC Service told how the economic ties of Moscow and Kiev collapsed, the Medusa retells this material.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2021, Ukraine delivered to Russia goods of $ 4.2 billion, Russia, in turn, exported goods and services to Ukraine for seven billion. In March 2022, imports from Russia to Ukraine fell to $ 42 million, and exports to 4.2 million.

“BBC” notes that the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of war and assistance from other countries “becomes more open and integrated into the world”. At the same time, Russia has to "come up with complex supplies chains in order to transport goods to the country."

According to experts surveyed by the publication, the shadow market of trade will develop between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine continues to ensure the transit of Russian gas to Europe, which is paid by Russia under international contracts. For nine months of 2022, Gazprom paid about $ 700 million for Ukraine transit through Ukraine. Economists consider these figures insignificant: in the same year, Kyiv received 32 billion dollars of assistance from Western partners, of which 14 billion are grants.

Energy system

The director of the Ukrainian Center for Energy Research, Alexander Kharchenko, noted that after the outbreak of the war in the Donbass in 2014 in Ukraine, a strategic decision was made to switch to the Energy System of the European Union. Prior to this, Russia and Ukraine had a common energy system preserved after the collapse of the USSR.

The decision to switch to the EU energy system was connected with the fear that Russia could start blocking the supply of electricity for Ukraine, while the country will not have its capacities. In 2023, synchronization of the energy systems of Ukraine and the EU was planned, however, due to the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia on February 24, 2022, this synchronization was carried out earlier "in incredibly short time." Alexander Kharchenko noted that if Ukraine still worked in synchronization with the Russian and Belarusian energy systems, "we would have arranged a national Blackout."

Petrol

On February 24, 2022, the supply of Russian fuel also ceased. According to the director of the Consulting Group A-95, Sergey Kuyun, 60% of the gas and diesel market in Ukraine was associated with deliveries from Russia and Belarus. Officially, Kiev claims that since last spring, it has not been purchased oil products from Russia, but, according to some reports , they are still imported into the country according to documents from other jurisdictions. Lukoil also continues to work in Ukraine, which is probably lucky from Russia.

Nuclear fuel

After February 24, Ukraine refused to supply nuclear fuel from Russia, which is used in nuclear reactors. If, before a full -scale invasion of fuel supply, Westinghouse and the Russian “TVEL” carried out, now only the American company. In addition, Ukraine uses its own fuel reserves. The Ukrainian authorities stated that they plan to start the production of nuclear fuel and supply it to other countries that refuse Russian supplies.

Fertilizers

Since February 2022, the Ukrainian market has lost the "significant part of imports" of mineral fertilizers. Previously, Ukraine received raw materials from Russia for the production of fertilizers (ammonia and natural gas), and from Belarus - potassium, phosphorus and complex fertilizers. However, fertilizer deficiency in the Ukrainian market did not occur, since about a third of agricultural lands were either mined or not processed for economic and technical reasons. Additional damage to the agriculture of Ukraine caused Russia's blocking of the Black Sea ports, which is why Kyiv could not export grain.

According to experts, Russia, most likely, will not feel the loss of the Ukrainian fertilizer market.

Banks

By 2014, three Russian State Bank (Sberbank, VTB and Vneseconobank) and several private, including Alfa-Bank, worked in Ukraine. Russian state banks have credited large state -owned enterprises in Ukraine, industry and the military -industrial complex. In 2014, two Russian banks were closed-the Ukrainian Daughter of VTB and the small bank Petro-Kommerz-Ukraine. Sberbank and Prominvestbank (VEB daughter) closed on February 25, 2022.

After February 24, Alfa-Bank, who worked in Ukraine since 2001, has been renamed Sens Bank, and then management over him was transferred from Mikhail Friedman, Peter Aven and other shareholders to the independent manager, former Minister of Finance of Bulgaria Simeon Dankov.

Mechanical engineering

This industry accounted for the largest share of the Ukrainian export market to Russia. In 2021, engineering amounted to 23% of Ukrainian exports in the Russian Federation. In 2014, Ukraine banned trade with Russian defense enterprises, as a result, Russia could no longer buy turbines of the Nikolaev plant “Zorya-Mashproekt”. BBC calls it a strategic loss for both countries. Later, Ukraine agreed on the supply of turbines to India.

At the same time, despite the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014 and a full -scale invasion in 2022, equipment trading continued. In October 2022, the SBU announced the detention of the 83-year-old former head of the largest aviation enterprise of the country of Motor Sich Vyacheslav Boguslaev. According to the investigation, the plant, by agreement with Rostec, illegally supplied military goods for Russian assault aircraft.