Translated material
Poverty and income
Another anomaly was announced by Rosstat:
“Russia has recorded a minimum level of poverty since the early 1990s. In 2022, 15.3 million Russians, or 10.5% of the population, were below the poverty line in Russia, Rosstat reported. This is 0.7 million people, or 0.5 percentage points (pp) lower than the previous year’s result and a record low figure in the history of the Russian Federation (Rosstat has ranks since 1992).”
How so? Have you noticed a sharp increase in income? Price reduction? I'm somehow not very good.
The poverty line is recognized as 13,545 rubles, i.e. If your income is, say, 14 thousand, then you are a fairly well-to-do person.
Why do I think this is an anomaly? Yes, if only because 2022 from an economic point of view as a whole is not a good year. The main indicator, GDP growth, was in the red - the Russian economy fell by 2.1%. It's difficult to improve in a declining economy.
The second indicator is the real income of the population; according to the same Rosstat, the real income of the population of Russia in 2022 fell by 1%.
Those. incomes are falling against the backdrop of falling poverty levels, how is that?
There can only be 2 explanations here.
First. The budget is redistributed in favor of the poor. Those. All kinds of payments were increased for the poor, their income became higher than the notorious 13,545 rubles. But this suggests that the rest of the population has become poorer. Society as a whole has become more socially just, but at the same time poorer.
Second. Calculation methods. What does Rosstat think? They take official income growth, which is difficult to mistake, and compare it with official inflation. But there are big questions about official inflation. Rosstat calculates changes in inflation using a certain basic basket, which they themselves change periodically. For example, they periodically exchange some goods and products for others, explaining this by saying that people began to buy this more, and this less. But as a rule, this happens precisely because of rising prices. For example, people are buying less and less expensive beef, but more and more cheap pork. Rosstat stupidly reduces the share of beef, in favor of pork, explaining that this is exactly what people buy, and with this the total cost of the basket decreases. Or another example, travel destinations to Cyprus, Morocco and Tunisia include Turkey and Egypt, which are simply cheaper. The result is that the declared inflation growth is less than the real one.
The independent company Romir, the largest private research holding, shows completely different inflation figures for 2022 - 41%. In their methodology, they take into account the prices of the basket of products that Russians actually buy, and not the base price. It is clear that true inflation is somewhere in the middle. The middle is somewhere around 25%
Now imagine how the number of poor people will change if we take into account not 12% inflation, but let’s say 25%? She won't fall, she will grow.
I think in the future we will have much more fun ideas in terms of manipulating numbers and data. Judging by the trends, 2023 will be no better than 2022, and if we are told about another improvement based on the results, treat it with skepticism.
When there are no real achievements, they begin to invent them. Therefore, do not believe what the official media tell you and write, believe your eyes, personal feelings, the words of friends and relatives who will not lie to you.