What will be the political echo of the explosion in St. Petersburg?
On the air, politician Maxim Reznik, political scientist Fedor Krasheninnikov.
Video version of the program
Mikhail Sokolov: Our guests are political analyst Fedor Krasheninnikov and politician Maxim Reznik. We have the focus of the evening Sunday explosion in the St. Petersburg restaurant, owned by the head of the Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin, where supporters of the war from Cyber Z Front gathered. The famous propagandist "Military Corps" Vladlen Tatarsky, the real name-familia Maxim Fomin, died, about 30 people were injured.
Mikhail Sokolov: Detained Daria Trepova, who brought a bust to a meeting with the Tatar bust in which a bomb could be laid. It seems that the performer was clearly used in a dark one. Maxim, you are a St. Petersburg person, at least you understand the picture territorially and so on. What versions of what happened?
Maxim Reznik: Of course, it’s hard for me to discuss this. Working in the State Assembly for 10 years, I probably 9.8 months of all this walked past this place home there and back, from work and to work. This is my native Vasilievsky Island, the war came right there. And this, of course, imposes a certain emotionality, despite what happened, but I would like to try to renounce. I see four possible versions. The first version is that these are the Ukrainian special services that took revenge on Tatar for his cannibalistic position. He was a ghoul during his lifetime - this is a medical fact. Of course, the fact that he insulted, humiliated, demanded death, the blood of Ukrainians - it pushes us to the version that people wanted to answer him accordingly. The second version is that this is internal Russian resistance. All the years I lived in Russia, I am more or less not badly imagining the St. Petersburg opposition. If these were some heroes of resistance, then, of course, they acted in any connection with any organized structures, because there were no organized opposition in Russia, everyone has long been defeated, people either in prisons, or abroad, or in internal emigration. This version also does not seem appropriate or obvious to me.
A version that seems to me absolutely wrong is those who are trying to pretend that everything with permission, with the blessing of Putin is being made to unite the nation around the flag. I think any such event today, especially the murder in the center of St. Petersburg for Putin is extremely bad. I do not believe in the provocation of special services directly. Because people today do not reason in the way, as in the time of Ryazan sugar, when a young new politician came, who would soak the Chechen terrorists in the toilet. Today, this "young politician" has been ruled by the country for more than 20 years, it only wet us right in the very center of St. Petersburg. Of course, no such special provocations add any advantages to Putin. Moreover, it seems to me, regardless of the versions of what happened, this will cause great damage to the image of Vladimir Putin. It seems to me that everything is going on to this, that he becomes the main cross of Russian society in the sense that there is Putin - there is no Russia, no Putin - there is a chance. A version that seems to me most likely is the struggle for post -Putin Russia. Today, everyone is in the elites, everyone who is higher than you and I understand everything, understand what the case is about. There is a struggle for power, for their own life. People need to take those positions that will allow them to bargain with the West for their own skins. Therefore, they solve internal issues today, get rid of competitors. But the intraspecific struggle of spiders in the bank seems to me the most preferable.
Mikhail Sokolov: Fedor, what do you say? Let’s, maybe in the reverse order - from the spiders in the bank?
Fedor Krasheninnikov: Of course, I really want the elite split, I am waiting for him, like everyone else, but I do not believe that the split of the elite will begin with attempts to kill some kind of “military commissars”, which are in one of the factions. "Military Corps" is the Pride Fauna, which certainly has nothing to do with the struggle for power in Russia. I do not agree about this version. That is, the fact that he fell victim to some showdown inside, I do not agree on the basis of what Maxim said regarding how everything is arranged in Russia now. Anyone who will suit the terrorist attack in St. Petersburg for the sake of some of his momentary goals, he shoots in the leg of power and shows the helplessness and ability to allow the war literally the holy of holies. That is, theoretically, of course, there is always a chance of any stupidity, but it does not seem to me that this is a reliable version. Naturally, I agree with Maxim, I absolutely do not believe in any partisans - this is impossible. In a society like Russia, this is impossible, because the special services carefully observe all suspicious. This is simply technically impossible, because to make a bomb in the form of a bust, sorry, for this you must be a professional of the highest level, obviously, have access to modern explosives, have some kind of laboratory, only the special services have this. Accordingly, if these are not Russian intelligence agencies, which are completely incomprehensible why to arrange a massacre in the center of St. Petersburg, then we come to the conclusion of the same thing where Maxim began, which, obviously, this is really the work of some kind of Ukrainian special services. Of course, they will not be recognized in this, because the special services never admit, they, of course, will say that these are some partisans. But in general, no partisans can technically in the same way as the explosion of Daria Dugina. Why was this character selected? Firstly, he is a traitor-he is a Ukrainian, he was sitting in a Ukrainian prison, he was born in Ukraine, was a citizen of Ukraine. The fact that he publicly allowed himself to speak, write, and so on, is, of course, it is difficult to perceive adequately, it is some kind of golly completely fascism and a preaching of the murdererity. Plus, he was a rather symbolic figure, including because he was allowed before Putin's bright eyes, which also increased his level as a symbolic figure, in fact, as it was with Dugin and his daughter. I begin from the fact that the attempt was preparing for Dugin, because Dugin is also a symbolic figure. War is such a thing when you really, if you attack a neighboring country, it should be ready that if you bomb its cities and strike at the rear of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army, it is quite logical that some Ukrainian special services can do the same, that is, strike somewhere deep into the demoralization, show the weakness of positions and so on. Therefore, I am inclined that this attack is a murder, this explosion is part of the war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine.
As said, the war is now coming to the streets of Russian cities, the war comes to Russian families. Because if rockets explode somewhere and bombs fall into Ukrainian cities, it may well be something that will explode on Russian streets, I can’t say that it causes me some kind of delight, I understand Maxim’s emotions, because Petersburg is still far from the front line. I want to believe and is even convinced that the majority of the inhabitants of St. Petersburg are by no means any fans of this crazy character, generally this war. Nevertheless, explosions in the city center are an alarming signal that the war from some events on the border, in another country, in another reality turns into some everyday reality for the largest megacities of Russia, one of which is undoubtedly St. Petersburg.
Mikhail Sokolov: Maxim, perhaps, convinced you, colleague, will you refuse your version or, conversely, will you protect it?
Maxim Reznik: Honestly, I certainly do not pretend to the laurels of Erast Fandorin or Sherlock Holmes. Moreover, Fedor always gives very accurate and deep grades. What I would like to pay attention to, not arguing and not giving my version, probably, to some extent, the version of my interlocutor will confirm. After all, this bomb was in a bust, the bust fell into the hands of a particular person, and only he died during the explosion. Maybe I'm mistaken, but it seems to me that this means that someone inside the cafe regulates the explosion so that the explosion is at that moment so that a particular person died. We know that there are many injured, but there are no more killed, thank God, I do not wish anyone to death, even let the most disgusting ghouls bring retribution to the necessary answers. The situation turns out in this way, when the girl is arrested today, the main suspect passes the bust, she leaves at that moment, but someone tells how the explosive device acts. That is, someone at some point reported that the explosive device is in the hands of a potential victim, or it was somehow different. Nevertheless, I still agree that a professionally organized story says that professional services did it.
The only thing Fedor does not convince me is that this is an exclusively history related to Ukraine, although this is really the most likely version. But still, I would not exclude the version that today is a rather significant number of people surrounded by Putin, who have not one belief in the form of the letter Z, understands that the war is lost, you need to look for your place in the post-Putin era. In fact, there is a struggle for a place under the sun, for a place who will give anyone more, who will have more mitigating circumstances. I would not exclude such a version. Although Fedor is right, the war is war, it came to my hometown, for me it is just a shock.
Mikhail Sokolov: What can be the political effect of this action, a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg? We saw that there was an attempt to blame Navalny, his supporters. Do you think they will try to press this version all the time or not?
Maxim Reznik: In order to accurately convince everyone, the most incredulous spectators who do not trust propaganda at all, I must say that Clara Cetkin and Rosa Luxembourg participated in the organization of the explosion with Alexei Navalny - this will definitely convince everyone that it looked. Before that, they had not yet managed to blow up Vladlen Tatarsky, still set fire to the Reichstag. Of course, it is clear that the authorities will do everything from this story to maximize the repression. Another thing is that in this murder there was no need to increase these repressions, the repressions are already going on, they are already promoting, they, from my point of view, do not enjoy the support of society. This staging or real terrorist attack of retaliation will not change this situation in any way, nothing will turn out in the authorities in this sense, there will be no unification around the flag. Whoever happened, in the eyes of an ordinary Russian, and my dear Petersburger will look like this: well, and that, nits, you promised us security, greatness in exchange for freedom, in exchange for elections, we all have given us in the center of St. Petersburg, and now we have Finland in NATO. Therefore, of course, all these things lead to what I spoke from the very beginning of the war - to consensus in Russian society, which will not be determined around the war, but around the figure of Putin. Putin becomes a figure of only two words - the loser of the criminal. For us, a criminal who is losing for them. This consensus is that there is Putin - there is no Russia, there is no Putin - there is a chance, he will unite many. What happened yesterday in St. Petersburg once again proves that Putin cannot ensure nothing of freedom, nor security, or greatness - this is a hoarse.
Mikhail Sokolov: How do you see the political effect of this explosion in St. Petersburg? Will it be possible to arrange such Amalgam and really accuse supporters of Navalny by participants in such shares?
Fedor Krasheninnikov: I want to notice, discussing the details of this event, firstly, we still know, perhaps we will not find out everything to the end. But for now, it is known that the girl, apparently, did not know that this thing should explode, thought that she was needed for something else. She was herself at the scene, she did not run away anywhere. Apparently, she simply informed those people who gave her this bust, that she transferred it, sat down three meters from about the explosion. I think that if she knew that there would be an explosion, she most likely would not sit there. Those who were two to three meters from this character were injured, 32 people, according to the latest data. Therefore, about who exploded all this, I think that the details are very difficult to discuss now. Firstly, I will argue with Maxim, if someone is fighting for power, then the last person with the murder of which must start-this, of course, is some kind of, sorry, the codon "military", of which are dozens. How this murder in St. Petersburg "military commander" can help in the struggle for power is incomprehensible. If someone decided on a riot, then, probably, they would have begun with the first figure, and not from the last.
Of course, the fact that they ran to blame Navalny of this, to build some kind of chain, especially on the eve of some next process against Navalny-this, of course, is very alarming. Because you involuntarily recall another story from St. Petersburg - the murder of Kirov. Kirova killed a man for some personal reasons, a loner, completely all this was obvious then. But Comrade Stalin said: how so, the enemies of the party did it, and so on, let's investigate. This is not to say that before the murder of Kirov, repression did not go in the Soviet Union and in St. Petersburg, but after the murder of Kirov, they acquired a completely different scope. In this sense, of course, an early accusation against Navalny’s supporters that they are not just criticizing the regime, not just opposition, but in fact agents of the Ukrainian special services who are preparing terrorist acts throughout Russia and explodes patriots - this, of course, is very similar to such a provocation. Once this explosion happened, the CGP comrades clapped, the comrades professed, because, as we know, they can only catch and plant unarmed and innocent people.
I will return to the explosion of Daria Dugina-they blew up and left, and the comrades of the Chekists only ran and clapped their ears, since they already clapped this explosion, they will now try to get some kind of political benefit from it. And the political benefit is building a chain. I repeat that the Navalny team, the supporters of Navalny, are essentially any person who you do not like, you can first fit into the supporters of Navalny, that he looked at the video at least once in his life, rolled up something, went to the rally, then say: yeah, a supporter of Navalny, then a participant in the terrorist Ukrainian network, then the terrorist, according to the article "Terrorism" and we will plant. Of course, this is very frightened by it, not because it can somehow touch me, I’m far away, but the fact that on some people in Russia, on the opposition, activists who have once participated in opposition activity, it can affect me very hard-it really scares me. I want to make a mistake, I want this analogy with the murder of Kirov to play in any way, it’s easier for me to live with the fact that I am wrong than to be right, to find that under the sauce of the fight against the “Ukrainian network of terrorists” there were arrests throughout Russia all who had not yet been arrested, a huge time was, as terrorists, as agents and so on.
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