"Russia literally lost political capital overnight." Finland - in NATO

April 4, 2023 became historical for Finland. This is the day of the country's official entry into NATO. President Sauli Ninisto took part in the ceremony of entry in Brussels. Thus, Finland became the 31st country of the Alliance, and the NATO border with Russia increased by 1300 km.

About how the ordinary citizens of Finland relate to this event, why this decision was logical and what to expect further from Russian-Finnish relations, read in the material of the correspondent of the North Real.

NATO and safety

Elena Lazarevaniylyanen from the Karelian city of Olonets, she has been living in Finland for the past 14 years and calls her her second homeland. For five years, Elena has been leading a group in VKontakte " on the banks of Pielisyoki ", where he discusses literally everything with his readers: from traditional Finnish recipes for holidays to elections to the country's parliament and important political decisions. The first post of Elena on April 4 is dedicated to the main event for the whole country - the accession of Finland to NATO.

Until February 24, 2022, she did not support the idea of Finland's entry into NATO. It cannot be called special reasons, except that there was a stereotype, that NATO is bad. But after Russia started the war in Ukraine, Elena's opinion changed.

-I realized that the entry into NATO would strengthen the combat effectiveness of Finland, give some reliability in this regard. Still, Finland is a small country, and NATO is a large coalition with its own rules, ”says Elena. - Purely theoretically, if Russia attacks Finland, which is very unlikely, given the "successes" in Ukraine, then NATO will come to the rescue. I feel that from today the population of Finland will be in greater reliability. You can recall the old parable that the broom is difficult to break, and the rods from the broom separately are easy. If we assume that purely theoretically Finland is a twig, although it can hardly be called a twig after the results of the winter war, then NATO is the same broom that is difficult to break.

At the same time, Elena has long closed all the comments in the group under the posts of NATO, as well as under the news about Ukraine. Since the attacks of bots instantly begin under these topics.

-I don’t know how the algorithm of the VKontakte website works, but either the word “NATO”, or for some reason, runs literally in the first minutes of a bunch of bots that are not in the group, and the bacchanalia begins. The most interesting thing is that the comments are exactly the same that “Finland signed a mortal sentence with the entry into NATO,” says Elena.

The history of the issue and public opinion

The issue of Finland's entry into NATO has been on the agenda for many years. However, they were seriously talking about this at the end of 2021. Then, during the negotiations of Russia and the United States in Geneva, under security guarantees, the Kremlin demanded that Washington terminate the creation of military bases in the countries of the former USSR, which are not part of NATO, as well as the cessation of the expansion of NATO east of the current borders of the Alliance. It was primarily about Ukraine. But Finland also responded to this statement: President Sauli Ninisto announced the need to take into account the opinion of Europeans in matters that concern their territories, and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that Finland should decide whether to enter NATO or retain non-block status. “There can be no two opinions. We cannot be blackmailed,” said Marin.

Despite the active discussion in society, hundreds of questions showed that at the end of 2021, only 26% of the Finns supported the idea of joining the Alliance. Public opinion changed after February 24, 2022, when Russia started the war in Ukraine. In November 2022, according to surveys, 78% of the surveyed residents of Finland were for NATO and only 8% against.

Among these eight percent and a pensioner from the Finnish city of Joansu Kirsi Era. It has been in the Mir Group for many years and has been involved in protest against wars, the purchase of weapons and fighters from Finland from the United States, as well as against Finland’s entry into NATO.

-NATO, in fact, the office for sales of the military-industrial complex, never saved anyone. Bombing in the Balkans and the war of the Member countries of Turkey and Greece are characteristic. It seems not to a peace treaty. And most importantly - the entry of rich and strong Finland and Sweden strengthens the military alliance and strengthens the international confrontation, and therefore complicates the international cooperation necessary to save our children’s future from climatic crisis and extinction of species (which lead to the hunger and huge masses of refugees), Kirsi Era believes.

According to her, the strengthening of NATO does not bring safety, but, on the contrary, enhances the arms race and the environmental crisis. She is sure that in the reality of Finland, nothing threatens, but Russia's actions in Ukraine excited in the Finns memories of the winter war and fear of a neighbor.

- The President and the government could simply state the fact that the Russian Federation has no demands for us (and did not exist after 1945), all the more forces to attack the country with such a large and well -prepared army. But our president is a long -standing supporter of NATO, and the government did not have enough understanding of international politics, ”said Kirei Era.

"Focused on safety"

In a conversation with a correspondent of the North. Real, Foreign Minister Finland Pecca Haavisto focuses on one of the distinguishing features of the Finns - orientation on security.

-We, the Finns, are very focused on security, and whenever something happens, especially in Europe, we always ask first of all: what if this happens to us? - says the minister. - When on February 24, Russia's attack on Ukraine occurred, the same reaction was in Finland: what if this happens to us? How will we protect ourselves, how should we react if nuclear weapons are applied to us? And chemical weapons are the same questions: how are we protected from chemical weapons? What else can we do to improve our safety? So the protection of citizens is laid down in the Finnish mentality and the thinking of the Finns.

Pekka Haavisto recalled that the Government and Parliament of Finland prescribed the right to consider the issue of Finland’s membership in NATO in 2004 in the National Security Strategy. According to Haavisto, until February 24, 2022, there was no need to use this right.

-A last spring came when the Finns wondered: "How much our safety environment should change, what could be worse than becoming witnesses to the war in Europe to start changing something?" Therefore, we took the NATO option from the shelves and began to work on this issue, ”Haavisto explains the decision of the decision to join NATO.

The Finland Parliament almost unanimously supported the idea of NATO membership and the legislation on NATO: out of 200 deputies for joining NATO there were 184 votes and 7 against.

What will change at the border

Russia responded to the news about the official entry of Finland in NATO quickly. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Alexander Grushko, said that Russia plans to strengthen its own military potential in the Western and north-west regions in response to Finland's entry into NATO.

However, Finnish political and military experts do not see the prerequisites for an increase in tension near the border. According to the researcher of the Finnish Institute of Foreign Policy of Yuri Lavikainen , now all military resources of Russia are concentrated in Ukraine, and it is unlikely that in the near future there will be additional forces for significant fortifications on the Russian-Finnish border.

- Russia does not have the strength to move there [to the border areas]. All ground forces are in Ukraine. Of course, there are naval forces of the Northern Fleet, but they also sent several missiles [to places closer] to Ukraine, which reduces their combat potential. In fact, we see the opposite: Russia averted strength from this area. At the beginning of the war, the 200th motorized rifle brigade in Pechenga was actually empty, all the battalion-tactical groups that were sent to Ukraine disappeared. And then some S-300 air defense systems were removed [from the border regions], ”says Yuri Lavikainen.

According to Lavikainen, Russia can afford to weaken positions in the regions bordering Finland, because at the moment it "clearly does not see a big threat here." He is sure that the Kremlin does not want and is even afraid of a direct conflict with NATO, because "this is a way of guaranteed defeat [in the war]."

“In the long run, I expect a significant increase in the Russian armed forces [near the borders of NATO], but in medium -term they will most likely rely mainly on nuclear forces,” the expert believes.

Finland also does not intend to increase the military presence of the eastern borders. The current level of defense capabilities of the country is assessed by experts as high.

- As a small state, from the point of view of military power, we are surprisingly strong. Finland is the only country in Europe, which seriously reacted to its defense capacity after the end of the Cold War. A year after the collapse of the Soviet Union, we bought new American fighters F \ A-18 Hornet. We bought Leopard tanks in the Netherlands, we bought reactive artillery systems, etc. We buy air defense systems. As a result, we became the first country to join NATO after the Cold War to really fight, ”says Lavikainen.

A high degree of readiness for war, according to the expert, is a guarantee that in the short -term or medium term Finland does not need to create NATO base on its territory. This applies not only to the placement of conventional weapons, but even more - nuclear weapons.

- In my opinion, nuclear forces will also not be placed in Finland in the long term or never at all. This is also our pragmatic choice, ”the researcher believes.

Nevertheless, joining NATO adds confidence in his own security. First of all, due to the feeling of common interests with other members of the alliance, both northern countries, Norway and in the future Sweden, and the Baltic countries.

- After Finland, and then Sweden will join NATO, the three countries of Fenniscandia [including Norway] will have a common interest in the protection of the jokes, which will increase their own safety and defense capacity of Finland. The same applies to the region of the Baltic Sea. It is sometimes called the "inner lake of NATO", which I do not quite agree with, primarily because of Russian submarines. But for Finland, Baltika is a key route of import and export, the basis of economic sovereignty, and its security is also very important, ”says Yuri Lavikainen.

The future of relations with Russia

As for the future Russian-Finnish relations in connection with the entry of Finland to NATO, neither politics nor experts see serious changes here. According to Foreign Minister Finland, Pecki Haavisto, all relations at the highest senior positions stopped a year ago.

- With the Russian government at the presidential level, we have no contacts. By decision of the European Union, all visits and contacts with Russia at the level of ministers are canceled. Therefore, we do not communicate, for example, with Minister Lavrov. The last time I met him in December 2021, when he was at a meeting in Stockholm. The last time our president talked with President Putin last spring, when Finland submitted an application for joining NATO, and he was correctly correctly reported to President Putin, ”says Pekka Haavisto.

As for the trade, industrial, cultural and other relations that have been strong over the past 30 years, first of all their condition depends on the actions of Russia in Ukraine, and not on the accession of Finland to NATO.

-The aggressive war of Russia in Ukraine changed the dynamics of Russian-Finnish relations. Prior to this, Russia had several political and economic levers in Finland. Active trade relations, mutual investments, streams of tourists, daily crossing the border, educational exchanges, political dialogue and cooperation at different levels, ”comments on the research director of the Finnish Institute of International Relations of the Sinicuk Saari . - However, after the outbreak of war in Russia, all this suddenly ceased, and Russia literally lost political capital that it had before. Finns are one of the most ardent supporters of the EU sanctions against Russia and consider it as a fundamental issue. Russia declared Finland - like all other EU states - an unfriendly state. Because of this, the changed context of Russia has very few milder levers left, for which could be pulled in Finland.

Despite the destroyed relationship, the Foreign Minister of Finland, Pecca Haavisto, does not consider Finland the country unfriendly for Russia.

- We do not consider ourselves an unfriendly country. Of course, in these circumstances it was quite natural that we stopped, for example, the issuance of tourist visas to Russian citizens, but, of course, we retain opportunities for families who are members of families on the Russian side of the border, get visas, travel and meet with each other. We have the opportunity for Russian workers in Finland to continue their work, and we have the opportunity for Russian students to continue their studies in Finland. So we do not consider it unfriendly behavior, ”says Mr. Haavisto.