The battle of two generals

In Sudan, the conflict of two security forces develops into a civil war

Army against the former militia

In Sudan, bloodshedcontinues . During the conflict that flashed on Saturday April 15, more than a hundred participants on both sides have already died . Bracles are carried out using heavy artillery, tanks and aviation.

The media reported that the army of Sudan inflicted air strikes on the headquarters of the RSF special forces in the capital of the Hartum state. The sounds of battles are heard in the area of ​​the headquarters of the Sudanese army and the Ministry of Defense, as well as the presidential palace in the center of Hartum and airports in different cities of the country. The RSF said that the army of the Sudan army entered one of the special forces bases in Hartum and fired at it from various types of weapons. Representatives of the Army of Sudan claim that RSF attacked several army camps. After that, the army "began a large -scale attack using all types of heavy and light weapons." Clapses also occur in a number of other cities, including in the capital of the province of South Darfur, the city of Nyala, the second largest population in the country.

According to the local association of doctors, 97 people died during the battles, another 942 people were injured. World Health Organization (WHO) reports that the number of those killed was at least 83, even more than 1000 people were injured.

The Sudanese army is led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burghan, who is actually the head of the country. Forces of fast support are commanded by Deputy al-Burghan Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. These security officials received power after the coup of 2021, during which the government led civilian leaders with them was removed. In 2019, the military deposed the authoritarian president Omar Bashir, who headed the country for about 30 years.

RSF was created in 2013 on the Dzhanjavid militia platform. These formations are suspected of barbaric methods of combating rebels in Darfur. In the course of the confrontation that began in 2003, about 300 thousand people died, and millions became refugees. On the basis of these units, Lieutenant General Dagalo formed the RSF forces, who participated in conflicts in Yemen and Libya and controlling some gold mines of Sudan. RSF fighters are accused of violations of human rights, including more than 120 demonstrators in the massacre in June 2019.

“Once the armed forces of one country are fighting among themselves, we must call what is happening by the civil war,” says Grigory Golosov, professor of the European University in St. Petersburg, “new-European”. -

The peaceful population is not involved in the conflict. After all, the confrontation is caused by the interests alien to ordinary people.

The rib arose the question of integrating the rapid support forces of RSF into the structure of the army. Moreover, the military insisted on an accelerated procedure and offered to meet in two years, and RSF planned to complete the process on their conditions and over 10 years.

One of the stumbling stones was the issue of revising the ranks and titles of subordinates Dagalo during this connection. ”

At the same time, our interlocutor calls the chances of the RSF victory insignificant. According to him, in terms of number and availability of weapons, the army has a significant advantage. However, much will depend on the motivation and determination of the fighters of both sides. “Now we are observing the phenomenon called the“ fog of the war, ”the expert explains. - It is still difficult to predict the radical success of one of the parties. It should be borne in mind that the military, unlike RSF, has aviation and they actively use it. Therefore, battles are under control over airbase and airports. Both sides have ground heavy weapons. ”

The odious figure

Grigory Golosov is convinced that in the event of the seizure of the Dagalo power, he will have to solve many controversial issues with a civilian population. Indeed, according to the expert, only his direct subordinates will stand the candidacy of this general at the head of state. “Dagalo is a completely odious figure,” says the professor. - He is accused of brutal suppression of protests, murders and other crimes. However, hands on the elbow in the blood of both warring generals. RSF commander at the same time very modest origin. His family comes from a child, and

Dagalo himself does not even have a formal education; He once traded camels. Today, this general does not find a common language with any of the representatives of Sudanese ruling circles.

He was a protege of the former dictator Bashir, whose overthrow Dagalo did not interfere during the coup. "

Our interlocutor believes that Dagalo is trying to win the most favorable conditions for himself today. Apparently, the battles will continue until both sides understand that they cannot be achieved with the final quick victory. Depending on the successes on the battlefield, one of the parties will be able to dictate its second conditions. If al-Burkhan wins, then he, according to Grigory Golosov, will completely deprive RSF of any political influence.

Russian base

In March 2022, it became known about the plans of the Sudanese leadership to resume an agreement suspended in 2020, according to which Moscow can receive for 25 years a naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

In March of this year, after the visit of Sergei Lavrov, the authorities of Sudan approved the construction of the Russian base of the Navy.

It should accommodate about 300 military and four ships. In exchange, Moscow will supply Hartum with weapons and military equipment.

According to Grigory Golosov, Moscow today has good relations with General Abdel Fattah al-Burkhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Therefore, the winnings of one of the forces today do not threaten the Kremlin. However, in the event of the victory of the army leadership, it will have to fulfill its obligations, hold elections and transfer power to civilians. And what will be the relationship between the new government and the authorities of the Russian Federation will only tell.

The media reported that the RSF cooperates with the Russian “PMC Wagner” and is engaged in jointly with mercenaries of mining, in particular, gold. Expert Grigory Golosov does not have verified information about the presence of Russian PMCs in the Sudanese region. However, he recalls that Russia sent military advisers and political strategists to Sudan. And the fact that Bashira was supported by the Russian PMCs several years ago reported the media.