The consequences of sanctions

Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev on the YouTube channel "Living Nail" says :

“Suppose you go to the store. Here you have a store next to the house. There are good prices, inexpensive. You get there in 5 minutes. And suddenly it turns out that for some reason you say: "No, the owner of this store is a rare radish, I will not go there, I will go by bus on the shifts to go to the store 15 kilometers from here, where one and a half times more expensive." <...>

Unknown. You overpay for the road, you have extremely uncomfortable logistics.

And because in this store it is cheap and good, other buyers run up, they also buy everything safely, and also more expensive. Here is the situation.

But after that it turns out that not everything is convenient for new customers, too, and some additional restrictions were applied to them, and the seller gets worse. But it becomes later. Here, in fact, is this picture. <...>

In the first year, Europeans paid an additional 800 billion euros for energy. <...> This is a minus from the pocket of Europe, but partially consumers, to a greater extent of governments. But at the same time, while this whole restructuring took place, Russia received an additional about 200 billion. Here is a pure wealth transfer to trillion euro. <...> Europe has left, Russia arrived. This is the first year, inconvenience. <...>

Then you bought a car, you ride a long -distance store perfectly, and, accordingly, the people who came to this store have already disappointed in their purchases and now reduce demand.

The second year: the ceiling of oil prices, reduction of exports, the need for a greater shoulder of transportation. As a result, budget revenues fail by 40 %. Europeans still pay more, but, on the other hand, this canopy of prices is already disappearing, the market will be filled. <...> That is, this market is balanced. Maybe this winter may be next, but it is balanced.

Russia will not return to Europe with its energy carriers, and the situation will again come to the previous state, when prices will be approximately as before the crisis. But Russia, of course, will have less money. Here, in fact, this is a matter of time. ”