The cost of war in Ukraine. Online April 19

The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.

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This online is complete. Read about the main events of the day in the evening newsletter . Online continuation here .

20:14 Ukraine believes that Shell is morally obliged to give more than $1 billion to restore the country, which it will presumably receive for a stake in Sakhalin-2, writes Politico. “If the deal goes through, it will mean transferring more than $1 billion of Russian money to Shell accounts. It will literally be blood money, ”the publication quotes a letter from Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to President Zelensky, dated April 18.

19:09 According to Rosstat , in the week by April 17, inflation in Russia amounted to 0.04% after 0.11% the previous week. Annual inflation slowed to 2.82% from 3.15% a week earlier - this is still the effect of a high base in 2022. What other unpleasant processes are behind such dynamics, The Bell explained here .

17:34 Israeli media confirm the cancellation of emergency repatriation of Russians

Emergency repatriation to Israel for Russians and citizens of Belarus is stopped, and for those of them who arrived before April 15, a “deadline” for passing the accelerated procedure is set until June 15. And from May 1, apostilled documents will be required again. For citizens of Ukraine, the previous mechanism remains.

The official reason for curtailing the program is a decrease in the number of applicants. But it seems that the real reason is the dissatisfaction of the right-wing parties in Israel with the fact that Russians who have received a passport are not in a hurry to integrate, but leave the country. As Forbes wrote , in the year since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 50,900 repatriates from Russia arrived in Israel, creating long queues for consular checks.

The emergency procedure allows you to start a quick registration of a repatriate upon arrival in Israel, and not with a consul visa in the country of origin. The option of a standard procedure upon arrival for Russians remains, but this is an unpleasant path, which involves several months of staying in Israel in the status of a tourist without the right to work and state subsidies.

16:16 According to the state -owned Polish Radio, the "separate" bans of Eastern European countries on the import of grain from Ukraine will be replaced by restrictions at the level of the entire EU. Presumably this issue will be discussed today by European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis with representatives of Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine. The latter will be required to agree with the EU measures in order to close the possibility of challenging them in the WTO. The information has not been officially confirmed.

• Stopping the supply of Ukrainian grain (but not the "transit of solidarity") was recently announced by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and today Bulgaria . Romania, the last of the EU countries bordering Ukraine, has so far abstained from the ban, although farmers have also protested there .
• The motivation is the same everywhere: cheap Ukrainian grain, not all of which can be exported further, has filled local markets and poses a threat to local producers. For example, the Hungarian Ministry of Agriculture said that agricultural producers in Ukraine, using agricultural technologies banned in the EU, receive a low cost of not only grains and oilseeds, but also chicken, eggs and honey.
• The main reason for the influx of Ukrainian grain in the EU is considered to be the restriction of exports through the Black Sea ports due to hostilities, and then Russia's opposition in the framework of the "grain deal". This week, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell , said that Russia was delaying the inspection of 50 grain ships. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the Ukrainian side of letting the ships through for bribes, and the State Duma believes that the deal should not be extended after May 18. Another reason is the zero import duties on all Ukrainian exports at the beginning of last June for one year.
• With regard to the actions of its Eastern European members, the EU authorities have so far limited themselves to stating that such unilateral decisions are unacceptable, and promising to allocate another 100 million euros to help the most affected farmers. Ukraine expressed regret over the position of Poland.

13:34 The CEC allowed the use of register data on minors to "enrich" the unified military registration register.

“We have a voter register, it contains citizens from 14 years old. This is a state system, so the state can use this system in those directions that it considers appropriate, there is a corresponding decision,” said Nikolai Bulaev, Deputy Chairman of the Central Election Commission, today.

• In the law on electronic subpoenas signed by Putin (we wrote about its contradictions here ), the CEC is directly mentioned among the sources of information for filling the register. The CEC is obliged to provide information "from the register of voters, referendum participants (including registration of citizens at the place of residence and (or) place of stay)".
• Today, the co-author of the bill, the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrei Kartapolov, confirmed that electronic subpoenas will be sent out as early as the current spring call, but they will not have legal force. E-mailing, according to him, is needed "to understand whether they reach at all or not."

12:40 Andrey Melnichenko is trying to regain control over Eurochem and SUEK, which he relinquished last year against the backdrop of European sanctions.

Since 2006, the shares of both companies have been owned by a discretionary trust through which Melnichenko owned 100% of EuroChem and 92.2% of SUEK until March last year. In March 2022 (the day before being included in the sanctions lists), the businessman ceased to be the beneficiary of the trust, this role was automatically transferred to his wife Alexandra.

“I believed that this would ensure the smooth functioning of the companies I created, at least for as long as the economic war continues and while legal restrictions apply to me personally,” Melnichenko explained his decision.

But in June last year, the wife of a businessman also fell under EU sanctions. As a result, the decision to withdraw from the beneficiaries of Firstline was a mistake, the businessman admitted.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• Russian exporters, thanks to a record trade surplus last year, were able to accumulate significant amounts in foreign accounts, writes Kommersant , citing a study by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Bloomberg estimated Russia's "shadow reserves" accumulated abroad last year at $80 billion. The authorities are in no hurry to return this money to the country, Kommersant notes: last year the government abolished the mandatory repatriation of foreign exchange earnings. This was supposed to dampen the sharp appreciation of the ruble and relieve companies of additional restrictions associated with the transfer of funds to Russia. Where Russian export earnings are now accumulated is unknown. The IIF suggests that companies have moved funds from European banks to "friendly" jurisdictions.
• Some Russian officials are concerned about Russia's over-reliance on Chinese technology, which has been formed amid sanctions, learned Bloomberg . Agency sources talk about a certain document of the Ministry of Digital Development, which says that Chinese companies such as Huawei and China Mobile can dominate the Russian market, pose risks to the country's information security and hinder the development of domestic technologies. Some officials of the General Staff and the Security Council of Russia agree with this, Bloomberg sources say.
• Due to the ruble exchange rate and cheap supplies from China, the production of household appliances in Russia is becoming unprofitable: according to Kommersant , because of this, the plant of the Italian Candy brand in Kirov has suspended production, and the Turkish Arcelik, which produces appliances in Lipetsk, is forced to reduce prices for your products. Experts are waiting for Candy to resume operations by the summer after the sale of stocks. Market participants say that without financial benefits from the state, the production of equipment in Russia becomes unprofitable.
• Russia's federal budget expenditures sharply accelerated again in April after normalizing in March, drew attention MMI's economic telegram channel . For the week from March 11 to 17, 1.14 trillion rubles were spent, for 17 days of the month - 2.07 trillion, from the beginning of the year - 10.14 trillion. If in January the average daily budget expenditures were 97 billion rubles, in February - 98 billion, in March - 75 billion, then in April this figure jumped to 122 billion. increase the key rate at the meeting of the Central Bank on April 28,” analysts conclude.
• Sociologists have recorded the highest level of financial uncertainty in the world among Russians. In the course of a survey conducted by Gallup and the Romir holding (results are given by RBC), the respondents were asked whether they would like to take the cash “prize” now or in a year, but in double size. It is believed that the greater the proportion of those who are willing to wait for a double bonus, the higher the standard of living in the country. Most patient "investors" in Sweden, the Netherlands, Japan. Least of all - in Kosovo, Russia, Pakistan. At the same time, the maximum share of those who could not choose one of the two answers was recorded in Russia - 48%.

Read the previous one online here .