Armenian rations

Refusing the dream of Artsakh, Armenia not only stopped a meaningless massacre - she stood in line for a ticket to Europe

On April 23, the Border Service of Azerbaijan officially announced the installation of its checkpoint in the Lachinsky corridor. Thus, the territory of the Nagorno -Karabakh, for which Armenia waged a fierce struggle for more than 30 years, finally passed under the control of Baku. Five days earlier, on April 18, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that the republic is ready to recognize Azerbaijan within the borders of 1991-in exchange for the same recognition of the inviolability of the Armenian borders. That is: Armenia is ready to abandon claims on Karabakh. A year ago, a much more restrained statement by Pashinyan led to mass protests throughout Armenia demanding the resignation of the prime minister. In April 2023, only the Russian state media are raging from Pashinyan's statements. Filled by the pink haze of Yerevan Street is calm, and this silence does not bode well.

The statement of Nikola Pashinyan on April 18, on the most painful Armenian question - Karabakh - was more than subject.

“The peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan will become real if both countries clearly, without ambiguities, recognize the territorial integrity of each other and undertake not to make territorial claims to each other today and ever,” Pashinyan said, reporting to the national parliament on the work of the government for the year. “Now I want to confirm that the Republic of Armenia fully recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and we expect Azerbaijan to do the same, recognizing the entire territory of the Armenian SSR of the Republic of Armenia.”

He emphasized that Armenia should clearly make it clear to the world community that she does not have and will never be territorial claims against other countries.

Protests of 2022

Last year, the much more streamlined statement by Pashinyan on the topic of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict almost ended in the country with a rebellion. Although the leader of the republic has just outlined the contours of the upcoming work.

“The conclusion of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan is in the shortest possible time in the agenda of Armenia,” Pashinyan said on April 13, 2022 during a speech in parliament. And on April 24, at an event in memory of the 1915 Armenians genocide, he added that Armenia was holding a course to “open an era of peaceful development”.

“That is why we are negotiating aimed at normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey. We hope that the desire of the Turkish side is sincere, we will be able to advance in this direction, ”the Armenian Prime Minister explained then Vitievo. But the caution turned out to be in vain: the first procession of the opposition - from Izhevan to Yerevan - began on April 25; On April 26, protesters demanding the resignation of the prime minister reached Freedom Square; On the 27th-we blocked several streets in the capital of the republic. On May third, the participants in the shares began to be massively detained, the fifth - a tent town appeared on France Square. “Karabakh is Armenia”, “Nicholas is a traitor”, “Armenia without Nikol”, “Artsakh, Artsakh!”, “Unity, struggle, victory!” - rushed along Yerevan.

“Pashinyan decided to make peace with Azerbaijan and caused the anger of the opposition,” the Russian media explained .

The riots in Armenia then subsided only by summer. According to the Ministry of Health of the Republic, for a month and a half as a result of clashes with the police, 21 people were injured and was taken to the hospital. 39 policemen turned to medical help. More than 2100 demonstrators were detained in various promotions throughout the country.

In April 2023, the streets of Yerevan were full of tourists and the usual time for this time of pinkish dust: after the statements of Pashinyan, who actually recognizes the refusal of the struggle for artza (Nagornoi Karabakh), there are no protests in Armenia. Apart from several dozen people of the socio-political movement “Together”, who gathered on April 21 on Freedom Square to discuss the adoption of new geopolitical reality by Armenia.

Two years ago, Pashinyan shouted to them: “Artsach is Armenia. And the point! ” After the application for the readiness of mutual recognition of the borders, Ilham Aliyev reminded him of this.

“Having taken this official step, Armenia officially recognized Karabakh an integral part of Azerbaijan,” Aliyev said in an interview with Azerbaijani television. “Armenia <...> Today we must repeat our words: Karabakh is Azerbaijan, and an exclamation mark.”

The gathered on Square Square these days is convinced that this is not the last concession to Azerbaijan.

“The defeats have no end. It seems to everyone that at least something will remain with us, but in fact there will be nothing left, ”the former Prime Minister of Armenia Grant Bagratyan addressed the like-minded people.

Armenia must trust

Russian blogger Alexei Romanov, who lives in Yerevan and gained fame thanks to his reports in the days of the Armenian Revolution of 2018, is not waiting for any domestic political exacerbations in the republic.

Alexey Romanov

journalist

“Nobody goes out into the street, they do not discuss in stores and cafes. Even in social networks, which usually and the authorities usually take place after each statement of the authorities, everything is very sluggish. I say: people themselves have long decided that they did not need this karabakh. "Yes *** I wanted this artza!" - This in private conversations was more than once declared during the war and after. Now Pashinyan said the same thing, ”says Romanov. - Armenian society is ready to discuss the abandonment of Karabakh. And it became possible thanks to the 2018 revolution. This is not the refusal itself, but the possibility of public discussion. And if there weren’t a revolution, then the lost war would not help to get closer to this. As they would say about Miazum, they would continue to repeat. ”

The 2018 revolution is a series of folk protests, as a result of which the former Prime Minister of the Republic Sergey Sargsyan resigned, and the leader of the opposition movement, former journalist Nikol Pashinyan, took his place.

Miazum is the idea of ​​reuniting Armenia with the territory of the unrecognized republic Nagorny Karabakh (Artsakh). In fact, for the sake of this idea, Armenia, after leaving the USSR, condemned itself to confrontation with Azerbaijan and Turkey, world isolation and - as its consequence - economic helplessness and vassal dependence on Russia. The unrecognized Republic of Nagorny Karabakh, located within the boundaries of Azerbaijan, was controlled by the army of Armenia for 28 years. And in Armenia itself since 1992, the 102nd Russian military base has been based.

In 2020, Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, solved his problem: the 44-day “Second Karabakh War” ended with the death of 3,800 military and defeat for Armenia. The CSTO countries officially did not interfere in the conflict. Russia stated that no one attacked Armenia. In November 2020, the republic signed a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, withdrew its troops from Karabakh, leaving it under the supervision of Russian peacekeepers.

The Pashinyan accused of losing resigned, but again won the election and began a policy, which in the Kremlin is called "rapprochement with the West."

Kirill Krivosheev

Specialist in the post -Soviet space, author of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

“What to do? Over the past 2.5 years, Armenia realized that she should not count on anyone's support in this conflict. Neither Russia nor Europe or the USA will protect it with military force. What was Armenia left? Continuing to bury 20-year-old boys at Erabluur (military cemetery in Yerevan- Ed. )? Well, this is a mockery of your people. Armenia will never be able to defeat this war. So, we must look for ways of reconciliation. ”

Krivosheev recalls that Karabakh Pashinyan made a fundamental decision in the fall of 2022, when he signed the next declaration with the head of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in Prague. In it, both sides emphasized the commitment of the 1991 Alma-Ata declaration, which contains two, at first glance, mutually exclusive positions:

On the one hand, Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and on the other, obviously referring to the inhabitants of Nagorno -Karabakh, he advocates the right of the people to self -determination.

The Chairman of the European Party of Armenia Tigran Khazmalyan says that there are actually no contradictions in such a declaration.

Tigran Khazmalyan

Chairman of the European Party of Armenia

This is perfectly understood by people who created the UN, prepared Helsinsky agreements ... Each country is guaranteed the inviolability of its borders. Armenia does not encroach on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, it only requires that Artsakh has the right to self -determination. As the right to self-determination in the autonomous Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the USSR. It was because of a violation of this right in the late 80s that the excitement began in Karabakh, ”the politician explains. - There is a precedent Kosovo. The Western society insisted on the right of the Albanians to self -determination. Armenia should be trusted with international treaties that are guaranteed by Roman law.

One of the associates of Nikola Pashinyan, asking for anonymity, describes the situation tougher: without receiving the desired - “Miatsum” - with the support of Russia, Armenia realized that the defeat in the company with such an “ally” could go much more - they would take away the latter. Namely: in the heat of the 30-year confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they still have not carried out delimitation and demarcation of their borders. A year ago, this formality was lost against the background of the ruins and the tombstone of victims on both sides, but the Russian aggression against Ukraine seems to have greatly changed the idea of ​​the Armenians about what the “national tragedy” is.

The country is afraid of new territorial claims by Azerbaijan and Russia's proposals, which will be difficult to abandon in such a situation.

For example, about entering with Belarus in the USSR 2.0.

War with an ally

A member of the Second Karabakh Tigran Khmalyan says that Russia's unofficial participation in the 2020 conflict brought much more harm to the Armenian army than its official non -participation.

-We dealt with the Russian-Soviet officer corps in Armenia. I saw how it was, ”says the politician. - Our commanders actually complied with Moscow orders. When the seven-thousandth Azerbaijani corps calmly passed the river gorge past the 30,000th Armenian army ... It was a strange war.

We are faced with functional betrayal. Imagine Medvedchuk, multiplied by 30 or even 40, and all this is in power structures.

Seeing the situation in which Armenia was after a failure military campaign, Moscow began to behave much more unceremoniously with satellite. For example, the Meghrinsky corridor - the border of Armenia with Iran said about sole control. Officially - to ensure security in Karabakh. But if you take into account that with the rest of the three neighbors - Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia - Armenia has not the most friendly relations, then we are talking about the complete control of the external perimeter of the republic.

Recently, the State Duma deputy from the United Russia party, Yevgeny Fedorov, stated that Armenia should speak on the side of Russia in his “Swell”. And if she does not want to do this, then Russia should revise relations with Yerevan.

“Armenia does not do this (does not participate in a special operation-approx. Ed.), But at the same time it requires something else. So, we have the wrong system of relations with this country, ”said Fedorov News.ru.

Stepan Grigoryan, head of the analytical center for globalization and regional cooperation, draws attention to the possible consequences of such statements.

Stepan Grigoryan

Head of the Analytical Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation

“Moreover: in Russia, talk begins that Armenia somehow incorrectly left the USSR, which means that you can raise the issue of the disputed territory,” says Grigoryan. - When in September last year the Azerbaijani army invaded Armenia for seven kilometers - not Karabakh, but Armenia - in the CSTO they did not recognize the invasion and advised us to carry out a demarcation and division of borders. CSTO does not recognize our borders. These are the allies.

If something is being said now on the streets of Yerevan, it is about how not to become a new hot point on the continent: skirmishes with Azerbaijani military continues. In September last year, a clash in the area of ​​the Armenian city of Jermuk ended in the death of 200 Armenian military and 80 - Azerbaijani. Jermuk never treated disputed territories. ”

The genius of Putin

On Sunday, April 23, just on the eve of the All-European Day of Memory of the victims of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire, the State Border Service of Azerbaijan officially stated that she sets her own control and access point on the Lachin-Khandi road. In the fall of 2020, the parties agreed that Russian peacekeepers would be controlled. In fact, this means the full capture of Karabakh under the control of Baku. Earlier, Ilham Aliyev said that the Armenians who want to stay in Karabakh should either accept Azerbaijani citizenship or leave. Data on the number of Armenians living in an unrecognized republic vary: the Armenian side insists that we are talking about 150 thousand people, who, in their opinion, risk becoming victims of ethnic purges. In Azerbaijan, the figure is called heavily high and insist that “two or three tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians in Karabakh, nothing threatens anything except civilized integration into the Azerbaijani society.

Ramiz Yunus

political scientist

“The establishment of a checkpoint on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia at the entrance of the Lachin-Khandi road is the answer of Azerbaijan to constant provocations by Armenia both to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and in the Karabakh zone, where several thousand armed representatives of the Armenia, which, according to the agreement of November 9-10, 2020, had to be abandoned, had to leave The territory of Azerbaijan, says Azerbaijani political scientist Ramiz Yunus. - And this is only the beginning of the restoration of complete sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, according to the Constitution of Azerbaijan. I am sure that this decision will accelerate the signing of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with the subsequent reintegration of the Armenian minority of Karabakh in the legal field of Azerbaijan. ”

In Yerevan, the emergence of a checkpoint that blocks the Lachin Corridor was expectedly called the “gross violation” of a tripartite statement of November 9, 2020, and they called on Russia to intervene.

The price of silence

But Yerevan streets are still empty. The opposition, which a year ago brought thousands of people to the protest and demanded Pashinyan's resignation, is silent.

- The opposition discredited itself, now everyone became obvious in whose favor they acted. The old elites, which brought the country to this whole situation, actually making it satellite of Russia, there is no authority. No matter how they relate to Pashinyan, he is now the smaller of evils for them. Maybe they will be able to gather five thousand people, but this is not enough to change power , ”says Stepan Grigoryan.

His colleague Tigran Khmalyan sees in the current situation the result of the mediocre policy of Moscow.

- A year ago, Armenia was the support of Russia in the South Caucasus. But Putin is also a “genius”. Over the past year, he was able to open his eyes to all, even the most frostbitten Armenians, he grins.

Khazmalyan is sure that

Having accepted the defeat and abandoning reunification plans with Karabakh, Armenia received an unspoken invitation to Europe and the first “task” - not to allow escalation in the region.

- The West made it clear to Yerevan that any of it (West) interference would interfere with the main task - the liberation of Ukraine. Therefore, Armenia is waiting for the victory of the Armed Forces. And then the problem of Artsakh will be solved by legal route. The world community will declare the right of Armenians to live there. Armenia will become a member of the European Union. Do you know how in Washington they call the plan to receive an Armenia and Georgia the status of a candidate for EU members? "Giorgio Armani"! - says Khazmalyan.