"They do not go to the polls - it means that everything suits"

Primorye is prepared to choose the governor of Oleg Kozhemyako. What happened to one of the most protest regions of Russia?

The election of Oleg Kozhemyako by the governor of Primorye will actually become a rehearsal of the election of Vladimir Putin. How did it happen that in the region, which thundered all over Russia after a victory, stolen from the candidate-communist, now there is no intelligible opposition, no protest voting, or the desire to change something? Why did the opposition "merged"? How does the governor consolidate the voices of all who are for him, and what to do to those who are against? We are talking with a political scientist, political strategist Vyacheslav Belyakov.

-Elections-2023 in Primorye, it seems, will become non-alternative. But the September 2018 elections seemed at least competitive. There, both the Communist Party fought, and the “Party of Pensioners” somehow participated-there was no question of victory, but she was able to outweigh the bowl of scales in favor of the second round. And even in December 2018, in a second election, where everything was a foregone conclusion, the people actively voted for “candidate No. 2” - Andrei Andreichenko from the LDPR. And now? The political field has been cleaned, not a single party will be able to compete with all the desire ...

-The processes for stripping the political field, in preparation for the election campaign, are completely taking into account the processes that were in 2018.

If any candidate won, nothing terrible would have happened. This is good for a stable political system. Whoever they chose the governor, mayor or, God forbid, the president, the balanced political system will work. For history, nothing will change for this insignificant time. But from the point of view of actors of political processes, it is scary to lose the elections. And it is natural that the political system will do everything to achieve victory.

Each real politician strives for power and operates in those resources and methods that are available to him and supported by the system surrounding him. Here in our political system they are allowed, supported, such methods of struggle are considered normal.

But I would not risk the thesis that Oleg Kozhemyako is illegitimen. The point is not in relation to specific numbers.

If the policy does not support the majority, people can say this. And if they do not say, it means that he is in his place.

The eternal problem of elections in Russia is that people do not go to them. How do we measure the legitimacy if most of the voters in these elections simply do not take part?

It is clear that in 2018, the elections of Kozhemyako were given at the cost of huge resources-human, material, organizational. Now these resources, of course, are not. And never will be. Then it was necessary at all costs to stabilize the system after the September scandal and shame. And today, all responsibility for the continuation of this process is already falling on the current governor. For five years, he could build a system in which he would get. That is, to convince people that he is a good governor. Show deeds, not words, the development of the Primorsky Territory ...

- ... To reduce the diagram of ticks so that it is more convenient to count. Or prohibit the elections of self -nominated. By the way, what is the point of prohibiting what is already impossible?

- In my opinion, a ban on self -nomination is needed to formalize the nomination of Oleg Kozhemyako from “United Russia” - in other words, so that no one asked him why he went to a self -nominated person last time, and this time suddenly from the party? It is clear why - he forbade the regional parliament.

But in fact, no self -nominated “from the street” could have been advanced to the governor’s elections in our system with the volume of signatures and with the format in which they gather. This is obvious.

The results of regional elections are an indicator of confidence in the state, so they are so important. Where they take place in 2023, they can be considered a “rehearsal” of the 2024 campaign, which will actually become a referendum on trust in the whole state and the first person. Whatever the results presented to the population - who needs it, he will still see what is really happening.

-That is, you give your vote not so that some candidate won, but so that someone “there” finds out that there are dissatisfied?

- The question is to a greater extent how many people will come and vote against the current government. Well, if they are really against her. If there are really a lot of these people, no electronic voting to you, no tick re -cutting will help.

Let's look at the same Andrei Tarasenko [candidate from United Russia, who lost the elections in Primorye in September 2018, despite a significant admin resource]. And the Ussuri Fleet ( in the Primorye, the Ussuri Fleet or the Ussuri Flotilla memory arose just in September 2018 after the words of Ella Pamfilova that the abnormal results in Ussuriysk showed ship plots, which were not in the city in the city. - V.F. ) came out in full force, and everything that could be done did not help ...

There is a common opinion that the turnout is always “dried”. This is not entirely true. You can’t “dry” it completely in the governor's elections. Firstly, this is not welcome. This is still not municipal elections somewhere in Chernihivka or even in Vladivostok. Here the ability to achieve not only the result, but also target indicators, including the turnout, is checked. Because there is no presidential election with a small turnout. So with the governor.

As, on the one hand, to support the turnout, and on the other, to achieve indicators based on the results is a serious challenge for the team of the current governor. But the question to the conditional opposition: who will exhibit parties and how will they lead this campaign?

And one more question is to people. If someone can still not know about local elections, then everyone knows about the governor. Will people come to vote? If you have not come, then everything suits you. The political system works exactly like that.

Why there is no opposition

- So who should competitors put up?

- It is very difficult to talk about competitors in the Primorsky Territory, because the field is quite seriously cleaned. We now see that there will be no serious opponents. Well, the leader of the Primorsky Communists Anatoly Dolgachev, of course, cannot compete with Oleg Kozhemyako. Dolgachev cannot be a competitor to anyone at all. It seems to me, a sinful thing to me that he would even lose to himself.

Last time, Ishchenko was also not a “dream candidate”, but he was the most active. He is also a communist, and the Communist Party is a brand. The Party of Pensioners sounds good, also a good brand - so she got the third place ...

Now the candidate from the Communist Party will unconditionally lose. And not because people stopped voting for the Communists - they simply will not lead the campaign to the campaign.

- Anatoly Dolgachev does not want to win, because such a warehouse of character or because he has in his Aquamarine ( an elite “skyscraper” in Vladivostok. - V.F.) Apartment was bought after the elections?

- For various reasons. He feels very well in the existing political system in the role that is assigned to him. People come to negotiate, he receives a salary, he has an expensive apartment from somewhere, something else. Everything is good in a person. Why would he go into the political struggle? Especially when there is an example of Ishchenko, who climbed into the political struggle and ended up without business and in prison.

The same can be said about Andrei Andreichenko, the “eternal candidate” in the regional elections from the LDPR - why should he win now? He can work to later, for example, to still become a deputy of the State Duma. But can the victorious governor's campaign be able to hold? I think no.

"When everyone has one opinion, people adjoin the strongest"

- If we assume that Oleg Kozhemyako, a unicorn with experience, last time did not go from the party, so as not to hore the negativity that the United Russia brand carries, then why shouldn't he go a self -nominant?

“So you will explain why you are not from EP, not only ordinary people, but also curators will have to.” Five years ago, it was clear why. Because it was necessary to choose a governor anyway. And now the situation is different: you must not only get out, but also show what you have done all these five years. And again, Oleg Nikolaevich is still very tightly connected with the party, leads the regional branch. Imagine what a scandal would happen if the main unicorn of the Primorsky Territory went to the election by a self -nominee.

Some polls say that the ratings of the authorities, "United Russia", are growing. But anxiety in society is also growing. Society is in tremendous stress.

In such conditions, it is impossible to predict at what point stress will develop into hysteria or in destructive manifestations.

Nevertheless, we can state that now the power rating is objectively higher than some time ago. And here the governor can act as a character consolidating these ratings, since he is one of the active participants in the processes related to his.

“And this helps him pull the electorate of other parties?”

- Certainly. The society in Russia is not divided by party sign, but - shares by interests. And when all parties support their own and there is no alternative opinion and cannot be, United Russia pulls the electorate of them all. When everyone has one opinion, people adjoin the strongest.

"This applies to both Primorye and Russia as a whole"

- As the Primorsky “candidate No. 1”, who sincerely cares for his, to attract an audience, which is against her?

- How can you attract the voter with whom you have diametrically opposite opinions on the key issue of the modern political agenda? No way. And there is no such task. During the election campaign that a good political strategist, a good politician, is primarily cut off - attempts to convince ardent opponents. It is necessary to work with undemanded, doubt and a little bit by the residual principle to cling to those who for.

- In the dry residue: what should happen so that we can expect a competition in the next elections? I understand that formally, all parties must put their candidate, conduct a campaign-but something should change in a global sense?

- The society should change.

- Society or political system?

- The political system does not exist in isolation from society and changes from the request of society. Never different.

Again, back to the 2018 elections in Primorye. Why did what happened? Not because the parties were put up by very large candidates (to take the same Andrei Ishchenko-was he some kind of noticeable figure?). Not because the president allowed to compete. And not even because the then acting governor Andrei Tarasenko was a bad candidate. But because in a particular region, the company is very tired of the society. And it compensated for its irritation at the expense of the elections.

Maybe it's doing it now? Maybe. Will it be? Rather, not. Can it be done in the next electoral cycle? Who knows, let's see. And this applies to both Primorye and Russia as a whole.

But we must understand that each person has his own ideals. Someone wants a revolution, someone is technocratic progress. Someone wants a direct open democracy, when it will be possible to not only receive summons and choose the mayor of Moscow on “public services”, but also vote for any regional, municipal or state decision.

He came home after work - in the "State Services" a letter: four profiles on important issues. And until he voted, the refrigerator will not unlock, the TV will not turn on, and there is no access to the rest of the Internet.

And if without jokes, I believe that an effective means of accelerating political progress is mandatory elections. I didn’t come - pay a fine. There is a good reason - bring a certificate. But this is better for me as a political scientist. And most people are not yet ready to invest in any activity.