The Ermak-McFaul group proposed giving officials and oligarchs the opportunity to get out of sanctions

THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL OR IS RELATED TO THE ACTIVITIES OF A FOREIGN AGENT OF THE BELL. 18+

The Yermak-McFaul Group (an international group of experts advising on sanctions policy against Russia against the background of the war in Ukraine) has published new proposals for tougher sanctions. In particular, the group proposes lowering the oil ceiling from $60 to $45 per barrel, imposing blocking sanctions against ten major Russian banks, including Gazprombank, adding Alrosa and "thousands more Russians" to the sanctions list. But the most important thing in the new recommendations is the proposal to develop a mechanism for lifting sanctions against officials and oligarchs for "proper behavior." From ordinary Russians for European visas, it is proposed to take a "fee for the restoration of Ukraine."

What is the "Ermak-McFaul group"

The Yermak-McFaul Expert Group was created on the initiative of Volodymyr Zelensky and is headed by Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and Michael McFaul, an American political scientist and former US ambassador to Russia. The group includes more than 100 experts from different countries. They make recommendations on the sanctions policy against Russia against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, their proposals are being studied by Western countries when adopting new anti-Russian sanctions.

Removal of sanctions for good behavior

The most important thing in the group's new recommendations is the proposal to create an exit mechanism from sanctions for Russian officials and oligarchs for "proper behavior." “Clear guidance on how to be removed from the sanctions list should be an important aspect of the sanctions strategy… This would show that there is a way out, subject to certain criteria being met, and would encourage these individuals to cooperate with the authorities that imposed the sanctions,” — says in the document.

What exactly the people who fell under the sanctions must do to be excluded from the sanctions lists is not specified. But there is another point in the recommendations that provides for the possibility of “avoiding sanctions” if a person resigns from a leadership position, and then “unambiguously supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine (within the 1991 borders), speaks out for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory and supports payment of compensation to the victims. Probably, this can also become the criteria for getting out of the sanctions.

Now the Russians, who have fallen under Western sanctions, have practically no chance of getting them lifted: they turn to the courts for this, but this is a lengthy process with minimal chances of success. The need to introduce a mechanism that would make it possible to quickly remove sanctions from a person has been discussed for a long time. about this McFaul spoke for some businessmen , Mikhail Khodorkovsky (recognized as a foreign agent) and FBK (recognized as a foreign agent, an extremist organization and banned in Russia) asked . According to them, the ability to quickly get out of sanctions would encourage influential Russians to speak out against the war in Ukraine. Whether this will work in practice, if an appropriate mechanism is adopted, is still difficult to say.

What else is offered in the document

• Reduce the oil price ceiling from the current $60 to $45 per barrel, as well as strengthen control over compliance with this restriction (create a unified register of oil suppliers and require carriers to confirm that they do not transport Russian oil more expensive than the ceiling, fine for violations).
• Stop deliveries of Russian gas to the EU countries, with the exception of deliveries through Ukraine, and also ban the supply of Russian LNG to Europe.
• Introduce the toughest sanctions against Gazprom, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, Lukoil, Tatneft, Transneft, Sibur, Zarubezhneft and Novatek.
• Introduce blocking sanctions against Gazprombank, which has so far avoided being included in the sanctions lists because payments for Russian gas are made through it.
• Introduce blocking sanctions against other Russian banks — Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Rosselkhozbank, MCB, Otkritie, VEB, Promsvyazbank and Sovcombank, and in the future include all systemically important Russian banks in the sanctions lists, disconnecting them from SWIFT.
• Set deadlines for leaving Russia for the remaining foreign banks - Raiffeisenbank, Unicredit and the Hungarian OTP.
• Completely ban the import of iron and steel from Russia, as well as metal products from third countries, if Russian steel was used for their production.
• Introduce the most comprehensive sanctions against Alrosa, Evraz, Mechel, Metalloinvest, MMK, Norilsk Nickel, NLMK, Polymetal, Polyus, Rusal, Severstal, TMK, Uralstal and VSMPO-Avisma.
• Introduce a complete ban on the import of gold and jewelry from Russia, as well as oblige gold suppliers from the UAE, China, India and Turkey to prove that their products are not connected with Russia.
• Introduce blocking sanctions against the top 10 Russian gold miners and strict export controls on the supply of equipment for gold mining in Russia.
• Strengthen sanctions on dual-use goods, namely to agree on what is meant by dual-use goods, and expand this list to include some non-obvious goods, such as tablets and laptops used to control drones.
• Provide secondary sanctions for China, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and other countries helping Russia to import equipment through “parallel imports”.
• Adopt legislation providing a legal basis for the confiscation of the assets of the Central Bank and sanctioned Russians and allowing them to be transferred to the Ukraine Recovery Fund.
• Impose personal sanctions against “thousands more Russians” — “everyone who serves the Russian state or supports the Russian government and the war,” including the proposal to impose sanctions against businessmen who buy cheaply the assets of Western companies leaving Russia.
• Stop issuing any European visas to Russians or, alternatively, charge them a "fee for the restoration of Ukraine" when issuing visas.
• Ban Russian athletes from participating in international competitions, expel Russians from the International Chess Federation, and ban Freedom Holding and Kaspersky Labs from sponsoring it.
• To declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation a terrorist organization, and all parliamentary parties, except for the New People, organizations that support terrorism.