The New York Times believes that the West can weaken the support of Ukraine if the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not lead to a “decisive victory”

We tell in detail what this article is about - and how it was used by Russian propaganda

The New York Times, one of the main American newspapers, published an article under the heading "Spring of Ukraine is associated with huge bets for the future of the war." It states that in case of failure of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front, the West can weaken the military support of Ukraine - and push Kyiv to negotiations with Moscow to stop or freeze the conflict. The article is built on statements by American and European officials, mostly anonymous. The authors of the material are four experienced correspondents: Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt, Adam Entus and Thomas Gibbons-Neff (read more about them below). Russian propaganda widely replicated the material - as evidence that the United States and NATO allegedly no longer believe in the success of the Ukrainian army. Medusa talks in detail about this publication and the reactions to it.

Ukraine is preparing to start a counterattack against the Russian troops in May 2023, US officials say. The Ukrainian military does not share operational details with the American administration, but, as the newspaper believes, the offensive will unfold in the south of the country, "including along the coastline of Ukraine on the Sea of ​​Azov, not far from the Crimea annexed by Russia."

The allies of Ukraine hope that Kyiv would be sufficiently delivered Western weapons, although two months ago in the West they expressed concern that there may not be enough reserves of military equipment and ammunition.

“It all depends on this counterattack,” the former US Ambassador to Russia, now high -ranking NATO official Alexander Vershbow, told reporters to reporters. - All are full of hopes, maybe even excessively optimistic. But the offensive will determine whether a worthy outcome for Ukrainians will be from the point of view of the restoration of territories on the battlefield and create much more significant levers to achieve some settlement through negotiations. ”

“Without a decisive victory, Western support of Ukraine can weaken, and Kyiv may face growing pressure to start serious negotiations on the termination or freezing of the conflict,” the material says.

American officials believe that the counterattack is unlikely to sharply change the situation in favor of Ukraine, but some military notes that the Ukrainian army may “be able to surprise again.”

According to journalists, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have many problems - in particular, winter battles in Bakhmut depleted ammunition reserves and led to large losses in some units equipped with experienced fighters. However, now Ukrainians are armed with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers and have new units trained and equipped with the US and NATO forces, the newspaper adds.

According to the recent leakage of the Pentagon’s secret documents, by the end of April, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should prepare 12 combat brigades of about four thousand people each, and nine of them are supplied with Western allies.

Since January, Ukrainian recruits have learned to use Western military equipment at American training grounds in Germany, and also participated in combined arms maneuvers, where the coordination of the advancing troops with units of support was worked out. US officials say that these tactical exercises were successful, and Ukrainian forces showed that they are motivated and quickly studying.

“If they manage to break through, I think they will be able to change the dynamics on the battlefield,” said Admiral Christopher Watson Grady, vice-chairman of the United Committee of the United States of the United States.

However, the Ukrainian military interviewed by NYT believe that maneuvering war is now almost impossible. For coordination of troops, a reliable connection is needed, which is difficult to concern due to the fact that there are no single radio equipment in different departments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the Russian side is interfering on the air.

The chances of the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will largely depend on the American, NATO and Ukrainian intelligence, if they manage to identify significant shortcomings in the Russian defense, NYT writes. In addition, the Russians thoroughly mined the battle of the battle, affects whether Ukrainian forces can effectively expand and use Western equipment for cleansing.

Finally, the question of the reserves of anti -aircraft missiles and artillery shells remains open. At the current frequency of expenditure of ammunition, their number can be reduced so much that the West will not be able to quickly make up for combat potential, military experts warn.

The Pentagon considers Bakhmut's bombardment, where thousands of shells per day are released, too intense. The US military even express concern about the fact that Kyiv at the key moment, perhaps, spends washing ammunition.

At the same time, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has a full of its own problems. “From the very beginning of the invasion, there were great doubts about the basic competence of Russian commanders, as well as in the fact that they are provided with well -trained soldiers, artillery shells and equipment. The Russians spent many of their winged missiles, lost thousands of people in only one bahmuth and exhausted their ammunition reserves much faster than they can be replenished by the defense industry, ”the New York Times said.

Journalists note that Moscow is working on solving these problems. For example, Russian troops have learned to more effectively use drones and artillery. Recently, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation also first used the controlled planning air bombs of the Kab-1500 in Ukraine- according to the WavellROOOM publication, this happened on March 24 during an air attack on the Sumy region.

According to the interlocutor of NYT among European officials, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu in private meetings with other Russian officials expresses confidence that Russia will ultimately win the war, since it has a numerical advantage over Ukraine on the battlefield - in manpower and military equipment.

According to representatives of American intelligence, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that time is on his side and he will ultimately be a winner in the war, since he has much large reserves, and the support of Ukraine from the West will decrease over time.

Officials in the USA and Europe claim that Russia is preparing new waves of mobilization, trying to prevent the same mass outflow of citizens from the country, as in the fall of 2022, when Putin declared the so -called partial mobilization. The leakage of the documents of the US Ministry of Defense also states that Wagner's PMC resumed the recruitment of prisoners from Russian colonies to the war to Ukraine.

Putin personally pays a significant political price for mobilization, but even if he is ready for these risks, Moscow will take time to call and prepare a soldier, the US administration notes. However, the mobilization capabilities of Russia, as well as the willingness to incur losses, remain large, the publication admits.

Some European countries, including France, insist on peace negotiations. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv now consider them possible. The Ukrainian authorities said they would not agree to any negotiations until they pushed the Russians on the battlefield and liberate the captured territories.

The chances that Putin will retreat or begin to save energy in response to a successful Ukrainian counterattack, make up “less zero”, a high -ranking European official said NYT. Instead, Putin, most likely, will prefer to call even more soldiers and send them to war, the interlocutor of the newspaper said.

Assistant Minister of Defense of the United States Celeste Ann Wallander told reporters that there are no signs that Putin was ready to compromise. “There are very few evidence and reason to believe that Putin will abandon his strategic goal to conquer Ukraine politically, if not entirely with the use of military force. It was his goal not only for a year, but for almost a decade. There are no signs that he refuses it, ”she said.

Who wrote the article The New York Times and on the basis of which sources

Julian Barnes is the New York Times reporter who has been specializing in the US national security topic for more than 17 years. He joined NYT in 2018 and covers the activities of special services. Before that, he worked at The Wall Street Journal in Brussels and Washington. Its current materials are somehow connected with the war in Ukraine. In April, Barnes mainly covered the story with a leakage of secret data from the Pentagon, which is suspected of US Air Force soldier Jack Teiner.

Eric Schmitt is the senior correspondent of The New York Times, who has been working in the publication since 1983 and illuminates US national security issues. In 1990, he was appointed a Pentagon correspondent. He visited Western Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Southeast Asia with business trips, exploring the theme of world terrorism. Co-author of the book "Countersstrike" about the secret campaign of the United States against Al-Kaeda, published in 2011. Schmitt in collaboration with other Nyt reporters was awarded the Pulitzer Prize four times - for the investigation of the transfer of secret military technologies to China (1999), for covering events in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2009), for reporting Putin to spread Russian influence (2017) and for investigation of victims among civilians in the civilian population in the civilian population in the civilian population The result of US airlines in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan (2022).

Adam Entus is a journalist for the New York Times since 2022. Specializes in the field of national security, international policy and activities of special services. Prior to this, he worked in the News New Yorker, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and Reuters. In 2018, he became one of the winners of the Pulitzer Prize for the investigation of Russian intervention in the 2016 US presidential election. Its current materials for NYT are somehow connected with the war in Ukraine.

Thomas Gibbons-Neff is a former US Marine Corps, who had twice on business trips in Afghanistan. In 2014, he came to the Internet in The Washington Post, three years later he was appointed correspondent of The New York Times in the Pentagon. In 2020, he became the owner of the newspaper in Kabul. In March 2023, he was appointed Nyt correspondent in Ukraine, specializes in military reports and investigations.

Among the sources of journalists who act in the material are not anonymous:

• Alexander Vershbou is a regular representative of the United States in NATO (1997-2001), US Ambassador to Russia (2001-2005), US Ambassador to South Korea (2005-2008), Deputy Minister of Defense of the United States (2009-2012), Deputy Secretary General of NATO (2012-2016).
• Christopher Watson Grady, Admiral of the US Navy, has been held by the vice-chairman of the United Committee of the Chiefs of Staff of the United States since December 2021 (this is the advisory body of the Pentagon from high-ranking military, who has no authority in operational command).
• Celeste Ann Wollander - Since 2022, assistant to the US Minister of Defense on International Security issues. Before that, she worked as a professor at Government at Harvard University (1989-2000), deputy assistant to the US Minister of Defense in Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia (2009-2012), assistant to the US President and senior director in Russia and Eurasia in the National Security Council (2013-2017).

Also, the publication contains excerpts from public speeches by the Minister of Defense of Great Britain Ben Wallace and the head of the CIA William Burns, who had previously cited in the media.

How the article by The New York Times used Russian propaganda

In Russian state and pro -government media, the publication of NYT has become one of the main news reasons. They wrote with reference to this article - as well as to the Prochrevsky experts - that the Ukrainian offensive has no prospects and Kyiv can no longer wait for military assistance from the West.

Here are just a few headlines and excerpts from the materials of propagandists. "Medusa" gives direct quotes.

RIA Novosti : In the USA they told when the support window “closes” Ukraine

After the Ukrainian offensive, it is extremely unlikely that the West in the foreseeable future will be able to again increase the potential of Kyiv, as he already did to prepare for the intensification of military operations.

Sputnik : "They tried." Armed Forces could not apply the tactics mastered in the West

In combat conditions, the Ukrainian military cannot cope with the coordination of combined arms maneuvers, which was trained in the West.

RT : "Colossal risks." The media in the United States announced the risk of Kyiv’s loss of support for the West when a counter -offset fail

“Washington, as it were, warns his society that Zelensky’s regime will inevitably crash, and prepares the ground to soften the Ukrainian defeat for the electoral positions of the current president of the United States. Today, the West does not expect that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Rather, Washington expects to drag Russia into negotiations unprofitable for her, ”said political analyst Ivan Mezukho.

Sputnik : It's time to bite your elbows. The western window of assistance to Ukraine is closing

It was complete, full, and now an empty box. Even if you scrape through the suski, it will not work out to save the asthma situation in which Kyiv. Yes, now all the forces are abandoned to ensure the counterattack of the Armed Forces in the Zone of the Svo. However, as the New York Times writes, the Ukrainian military faces a huge number of difficulties. <...> According to experts of the publication, the reality is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are most likely to drive themselves into a "dead end situation."

"Tsargrad" : "The United States set Kiev ultimatum." Political scientist "translated" the article Nyt about the support of Ukraine

According to political scientist Dmitry Perlin, this is nothing more than an undisguised blackmail of the Ukrainian authorities. Because NYT translates only what US presidential administration Joe Biden and the State Department need. In fact, this is an ultimatum of power in Kyiv, the military. This requirement, no matter what, go on the attack, go to slaughter.

How the New York Times reacted to the article in Ukraine

The authorities of Ukraine did not give direct comments on the publication, however, after the exit of the article, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malelar wrote on Facebook: “Numerous scenarios of the counterattack, which are now published, can be based on cinema plots. But this is all not about our history. We will write ours ourselves. "

A comment on the topic may seem like a statement on the Twitter of an adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak:

When is the counterattack already? In what direction? How many people and equipment will be? What is the battle plan? Journalists accuse of the same matters of all who can be called an "official." Fans sit on the stands and want to know if there is time to catch the buffet behind chicken wings. “Military observers” argue whether the “second season” will be as successful as the first. Political analysts warn: if the views fall, investors will think about whether to continue the series for the third season. Fans are unhappy: photos of destroyed landscapes and wounded people are no longer clinging, and showraners demonstrate insufficient creativity. Meanwhile, ordinary Ukrainians who left peaceful life and rising on the guard of their country are preparing to win their own home day and do not understand where the promised ammunition, aviation and long -range missiles ...

The secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexei Danilov proposed not to build a guess about the time and place of the counterattack. “We understand that if in the near future weapons will be delivered at the same time, we have our own plan, which no one is known about today,” he said on the broadcast. - When they begin to talk about this so -called large counterattack, keep in mind that a very limited circle of persons has information about this counterattack. When, how and in what way, you will see with your own eyes. ”