
In anticipation of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Russian army has equipped a line of defensive structures from the border with Ukraine in the Belgorod region to the Crimean Isthmus, writes Reuters, citing an analysis of thousands of satellite images.
On Russian territory, the defensive line continues along the border with Ukraine in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions. Judging by the Reuters map , it goes with small gaps to the place where Russia stops bordering Ukraine and the border with Belarus begins. The agency's findings were confirmed by military analyst Brady Afrik from the Foreign and Defense Policy Research Department of the American Enterprise Institute. According to him, the fortifications start from the Russian city of Voronok in the Kursk region and stretch to Crimea.
The most powerful fortifications were erected in the Zaporozhye region and on the Crimean Isthmus. Based on the location of the defensive structures, one can guess where the Russians expect the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike, says retired Australian Army Major General Micah Ryan, who served in the combat engineer troops. According to him, the Russians are probably waiting for a Ukrainian offensive in the south, in particular in Zaporozhye.
Many military experts call the Zaporozhye direction one of the most likely for a counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov explained to Important Stories that a successful operation would make it possible to cut the Russian land corridor, which plays an important role in supplying troops.
Most of the defensive structures appeared after the retreat of the Russian army from Kherson and from the right bank of the Dnieper, Reuters notes, citing an analysis of satellite images.
The decision of the Russian command to strengthen the defense could also be influenced by the autumn counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov region, says Rob Lee from the Institute for Foreign Policy Research. “Russia realized that defeat was possible, that they could lose territory,” Lee says. The analyst calls large-scale defensive structures Russia’s recognition of the risk of a new breakthrough by the Ukrainian army.
In the most fortified areas, the Russian defensive line consists of three lines. First there are minefields and concrete barriers - the so-called “dragon’s teeth”. 300–500 meters behind, a trench was dug for the defending units. It may provide cover for armored vehicles that can fire. After another 300–500 meters there is an anti-tank ditch and another line of “dragon teeth”. There may also be minefields between the lines.
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Speaking about trenches, retired Australian General Ryan notes that they themselves do not give the defending units an advantage. Poorly designed structures can even make the situation worse, he said. “It all depends on the location of the fortifications. Once you're entrenched, you're very easy to find,” says Ryan.
Military analysts told Reuters that in order to successfully break through the Russian defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, it is necessary to disrupt the supply of the defending units. When storming Russian positions, the interaction of different branches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be especially important.
On Thursday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the Ukrainian army is in a good position to continue to retake the occupied territories. According to him, the allies handed over 230 tanks and more than 1,550 armored vehicles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On April 28, Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov said that preparations for a counteroffensive are at the final stage. “If in a global sense, in a high percentage mode, we are ready, then it’s up to the General Staff, the command. As soon as God’s will, the weather and the decision of the commanders, we will do it [start the offensive],” the minister said.