Russia in the Serbian mirror

Igor Novakovich, Maxim Samorukov and Natalya Ishchenko: What is common in the fate of the two countries?

Sergey Medvedev : The former federation, which could not come to terms with the independence of its former province, and invaded it. The country that has encountered the West and suffered a military defeat. The explosive mixture of Orthodoxy, nationalism, militarism and imperial resentment. No, I'm not talking about Russia now, but about Serbia. 24 years ago, she was defeated in the war in Kosovo, faced with the West, but since then, it seems, she had not forgiven this and has not found her own way to Europe. The bitterness of defeat, the thirst for revenge, resentment to the West - all this makes it similar to Russia. What is common in the fate of the two Slavic peoples? Do Russians are waiting for Russia, decades of resentification? With us, the analyst of the Carnegie Foundation for the International World Maxim Samorukov , research director of the Belgrade Center for International Politics and Security , Igor Novakovich and journalist, editor of the Balkan Observer portal Natalya Ishchenko .

Correspondent : before the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia considered Serbia as the center of pro-Russian sentiments in the southeast of Europe. The historical ties of the two peoples were reinforced over time and political. Belgrade refuses to support sanctions against Russia, and graffiti against NATO and entry into the eurozone are visible on the streets of Serbian cities.

When it comes to Serbia, Putin almost always mentions Belgrade's bombing, Kosovo and the territories of the former Yugoslavia, designating anti -Western sentiments. He is widely supported by Serbian nationalists who warmly recall Milosevich, convicted by the Hague tribunal. They are one of the main pro -Russian forces in Serbia, and some of them take part in the war in Ukraine on the side of Russia since 2014.

Now the country is facing a choice. Serbia President Alexander Vuchich has already stated that this year has become one of the most difficult for him. On the one hand, Serbia delivers humanitarian aid to Ukraine and, according to some sources, recently, even weapons, does not recognize Crimea and Donbass by Russian, but on the other hand, makes attempts to maintain and even strengthen relations with Russia.

Putin almost always mentions the bombing of the former Yugoslavia, denoting anti -Western moods

Sergey Medvedev : Maxim, exactly 24 years ago, Belgrade's bombing took place. There, in my opinion, there are still buildings, the facades of which are damaged by American bombs?

Maxim Samorukov : Yes, this is the building of the General Staff, which stands right in the government quarter.

Sergey Medvedev : What is the policy of memory in Serbia in relation to the Yugoslav wars and to the Kosovo war?

Maxim Samorukov : It cannot be said that there is some special pilgrimage to this building of the General Staff. But not far from him, all sorts of banners in the style of the fact that "Kosovo is the heart of Serbia", "do not forget about Kosovo" are usually hung out. A significant part of the Serbian society still did not reconcile with the loss of Kosovo. And this is a reminder of Serbian resentment to the west.

See also "many who go to war cause pity"

Sergey Medvedev : It resembles posters that were resurrected in 2014: "Donbass is the heart of Russia." Were this consensus in society about what happened in 1999?

Maxim Samorukov : No, they have not reached, no one especially seeks to achieve it, because Kosovo is still a topic on which it is good to earn political popularity. For example, one of the trump cards of the current leader of Serbia, Alexander Vucich, on which he came to power and, being at different posts, remains in power for more than ten years, and it was that the previous power was too pro -Western, did not defend Kosovo enough, and he, a real Serbian nationalist, patriot, is ready to fight for Kosovo properly.

But in general, it is very difficult to say how important it is for society, it all depends on how to ask. In general, if you ask - "Are you ready to recognize the independence of Kosovo?" - Most will say: "No." If you start clarifying, "are you ready to recognize the independence of Kosovo if Serbia enters the European Union for this"? - Here the willingness to refuse Kosovo, in independence, is reduced. And if you ask - how much is this issue for most Serbs, how are they ready to sacrifice personally to combat Kosovo independence? -It generally already turns out that Kosovo is an important topic that still remains in the center of political discussion, but it is also not necessary to say that Serbia is ready for a new war for Kosovo, that Serbian society requires Kosovo again. Still, such strict requirements are the destiny of a marginal group of radical nationalists.

Kosovo is still a topic on which it is good to earn political popularity

Sergey Medvedev : That is, there will be exacerbations, but there is no need to wait for a new war, a military revenge in the future?

Maxim Samorukov : No, there is no request for a new war in Serbian society. Most Serbs remember that war is quite unpleasant. But exacerbations, of course, are possible, because one of their main drivers is a Serbian leadership that constantly gives itself to the West, on the one hand, as a guarantor of stability, and on the other hand, to be a guarantor of stability, an instability is needed. Therefore, the Serbian leadership has to constantly remind the West, that at any moment everything can rush, so please value us and do not demand too much. There have just been elections in North Kosovo, inhabited mainly by the Serbs, which Belgrade called in every possible way to boycott, criticized, which will clearly create new voltage points, despite the not recent signed agreements.

Maxim Samorukov

Sergey Medvedev : The situation in North Kosovo is partially controlled by Belgrade? Is this a kind of card that Belgrade can skillfully play in relations with his nationalists and in relations with the West?

Maxim Samorukov : Yes, of course! North Kosovo is controlled by Belgrade very seriously, because it exists almost at the expense of Belgrade. This is such a gray hole where there is no normal power, normal police and the like, so smuggling, tax evasion, and on the other hand, almost all people living there, one way or another, depend on the Serbian budget. They receive money from the Serbian state, so it is quite easy for the state to take it to rallies and barricades. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that in North Kosovo some exacerbation is possible, which would be purely spontaneous, without the silent approval of Belgrade.

Sergey Medvedev : Miloshevich, Mladic - what is the attitude towards these people now?

The crimes of the times of the Yugoslav wars from the Serbian side will tell you that we do not deny our guilt, but it is inflated

Maxim Samorukov : These are very different figures, and the attitude towards them is different. Mladich - a military hero, an honest general who fought on the fronts, does not use the reputation of a corrupt official, a politician. And Miloshevich is just a politician, a corrupt official, an unscrupulous thief who brought Serbia to a disaster, and the country to the pen. Mladic has a rather active fan club, you can still see on the walls of houses in Serbia that Mladic is a hero. He is a warrior who fought for Serbian honor: the territory as honor is not so important. Milosevich has no fan club, and in general it cannot be said that someone is nostalgic for him.

Sergey Medvedev : And in society there is an idea of repentance, rethinking, revaluation: for example, the same cut? In Russia, there is an active denial now, at the highest level it is said that this is the idea of the West.

Maxim Samorukov : About any mass crimes of the times of the Yugoslav wars from the Serbian side they will tell you that, of course, there were crimes, but what the hell are they only guilty? And why only the Serbs should be responsible for them, although other parties also committed crimes? " This is approximately such a basic position: we do not deny our guilt, but it is inflated.

See also the following - Hague

Sergey Medvedev : But in general, there is a consensus about Serbian guilt?

Maxim Samorukov : No, it is naturally to blame for the West, and in the Yugoslav war too: Yugoslavia interfered with everyone, and the West decided to ruin it.

Sergey Medvedev : Here is absolute parallelism with Russia: the type of West "pulls the fraternal Slavic peoples."

Maxim Samorukov : In Serbia, no one formulates this as "fraternal peoples."

Sergey Medvedev : Even a quarter century later, an anti-Western society is still enough in Serbia?

Maxim Samorukov : I think now it is a more anti -Western society than about 20 years ago. In the first years after the overthrow of Milosevich, Serbia was a much more pro -Western society.

Sergey Medvedev : But at the same time, is it not against the plan for joining the European Union?

Maxim Samorukov : All Serbs already realized that no one seriously offers this, so we can answer that "we do not want to join the European Union." Polls show the constantly decreasing fraction of the Serbs who would like Serbia entering the EU, but this share is not reduced because the Serbs do not want to go there, but rather because no one offers: well, and that we will beat our heads against the wall and try to enter there?!

Sergey Medvedev : We are joined by Serbian political analyst Igor Novakovich , director of research by the Center for International Politics and Security. How strong are the pro -Russian, Pro -Putin sentiments in Serbia now?

In the first years after the overthrow of Milosevich, Serbia was a much more pro -Western society than now

Igor Novakovich : We have such a high level of sympathy for the Putin regime because of the Russian propaganda that we have. Since 2006, when it became clear that Primetina would proclaim and everything would go in this direction, in our country something has begun something like the Pro-Putin Russian propaganda, which continues to this day. Citizens of Serbia are becoming more and more pro -Russian, because they receive passing information the most in Europe.

Sergey Medvedev : And how strong are the pro- or anti-Ukrainian sentiments? I was told that Belgrade is one of those few places in Europe, where it is impossible to see Ukrainian flags of solidarity on the street.

Igor Novakovich : Ukraine and the Kiev regime are usually seen as a Western instrument against Russia. In addition, the majority of Serbia citizens and even the political elite are not aware of certain ways of Ukrainian and Russian history. It is difficult for a citizen to identify himself with Ukraine. And only those who know a little more and aware of what is happening there do not support it. From time to time, there is some manifestation of solidarity with Ukraine, but to a very small degree.

Maxim Samorukov : Over the past year, a rather clear division has occurred: pro -Russian feelings in Serbia have remained at about the same level, but the Pro -Putinsky have seriously decreased. Of course, Serbian society still remains, probably, the most Pro-Putin society in Europe, but this is much lower than what was before the war. Still, Serbian society remembers what war is. There are separate groups of radicals that are ready to organize wire rallies, but this is not a massive social phenomenon. And still, Serbian society is more likely to sympathize with Russia, based on the fact that "we know how you have: we were also in this situation."

Sergey Medvedev : And there is no empathy for Ukraine? Is there information about her suffering, about millions of refugees, about the tragedy of Mariupol, Kherson, Buchi?

Pro -Russian feelings in Serbia remained approximately at the same level, but the Pro -Putinsky has seriously decreased

Maxim Samorukov : There is some information about this. Everyone who wants to, can find out, but still in Serbia the regime is quite authoritarian, the main media are controlled by him, and this regime for ten years built its reputation on a pro-Russian map. Naturally, the Serbian media cover the war in a rather pro -Russian manner. But if at the beginning of the war completely terrible headlines of the type “Ukraine attacked Russia” were served, now it is slightly softer, the tone is reduced. However, in general, the main media controlled by the media regime still translate the pro-Russian position, simply because it is one of the basics of the popularity of the regime

Sergey Medvedev : Serbia still does not support anti-Russian sanctions?

Maxim Samorukov : Serbia does not formally join the sanctions, but in fact, most of them are carried out one way or another, because Serbia is too integrated with the European Union to afford to not fulfill them. All surveys show that more than 80% of the Serbian society against joining sanctions against Russia, and this could become a very unpopular step that will inevitably affect ratings. This is rather an internal political question.

Sergey Medvedev : Is there really supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine?

Maxim Samorukov : There is, of course! The Serbian regime earns this.

Natalia Ishchenko

Sergey Medvedev : with us a journalist, editor of the Balkan Observer portal Natalya Ishchenko . What do you think, can we draw these parallels: a possible future defeat in a clash with Ukraine, with the West behind it, and further than a decade of a nascent resentment, but only with nuclear weapons?

Serbia is too integrated with the European Union to afford not to carry out sanctions

Natalya Ishchenko : It is difficult to predict the future, but there really is some similarity. Both Serbia and Russia had absolutely irrational motives based on statements that these are historically important for the metropolis of the territory, that it is important from the point of view of long history, sources of identity of the people, Orthodoxy ... there are a lot of similarities, but there are many differences. The conceptual is that when Serbia began its military operation against Kosovo, Kosovo then was still part of Yugoslavia and part of the Republic of Serbia. When Russia began a full -scale operation against Ukraine in 2022 and a limited operation in 2014, Ukraine has been an independent state for many years. This is a fundamental difference that changes the perception of these two conflicts by the world community. If Serbia dealt with its rebellious province, then the issue of international law is already in relation to Russia.

Sergey Medvedev : Titovskaya Yugoslavia survived the take -off, was an exemplary country in the social camp, they were equal. In fact, it was a semi -capitalist country. And the failure that has been coming from the 90s, from Milosevich, from the Yugoslav wars, from the collapse of Yugoslavia, and then Kosovo, there is a gradual lowering of the regions into a provincial existence. Perhaps the same will be the result of the Russian-Ukrainian war?

Natalya Ishchenko : Unlike Russia, Ukraine never had imperial ambitions. Ukraine never considered itself the center of Europe, the main country on the continent, did not want to dominate this part of the world. Changes as such in self -awareness in Ukraine will not occur. The main thing is that Ukraine is preserved.

Both Serbia and Russia had absolutely irrational motives for military operations

And there is an important point. The countries of the former Yugoslavia, who wanted to separate, are Slovenia, Croatia, these are Bosnians, these are Kosovo, who fought for their independence, wanted to be independent, did not think that someday they would join NATO, the EU. In the future - yes, it was an important goal, but not the main one, the main thing was independence. The same thing is in Ukraine. For some reason, in our conversation, there is a feeling that Ukrainians are fighting to join the EU and NATO. No! Ukrainians are fighting to preserve the Ukrainian people and independent Ukraine. In the same way, the Croats fought for independent Croatia, the Bosnians - for independent Bosnia and Kosovars - for the independent Kosovo. There is no fundamental question in joining some Euro-Atlantic and European structures.