“Shooting yourself in the dome looks humiliating.”

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Air defense has been installed in Moscow, but its systematic work has not been established

One of the arguments of ISW is the increase in air defense systems in Moscow, which is confirmed by geolocation images. Indeed, additional air defense systems were placed around Moscow, but this is not enough for full-fledged protection.

The Russian system of air defense systems was not originally designed for small drones. It was created in the Soviet years to resist NATO troops. The task of the air defense was to protect the capital from a nuclear missile attack and other major attacks.

Now the Russian army needs to build a defensive system practically from scratch. around Moscow It is impossible to achieve much by simply placing Pantsirs and S-400s (anti-aircraft missile and gun systems that are used as air defense. - Approx. "Cold") . The systems ended up in an unfamiliar area, in an urban environment - they need to learn to distinguish between civilian drones launched by residents and military ones. It is no coincidence that Sobyanin introduced a ban on the use of any drones ( there were restrictions on the use of drones on the territory of Moscow before, but now they have become tougher . - Approx. "Cold" ).

In Moscow, they announced the creation of observation teams sky from among state employees - this is also not from a good life. Obviously, distinguishing between such small targets as drones, some of which are not even metal, is very difficult. To create a well-functioning air defense system, these observation groups must be integrated into the overall work.

Suppose a group of state employees watching the sky sees something. What will she do next, where will she call? To the police? Who and how quickly will be able to process this call? How soon will he be able to reach the corresponding air defense system along the entire chain?

One can cite as an example the Ukrainian air defense, which is now coping with its tasks much better than at the beginning of the war. Ukraine has been developing its own system in practice for many months. Information that the conditional Iranian "Shahed" is flying in a specific direction, machine gunners quickly receive through a special application from various sources: from location systems to civilian observers. This system was practiced through pain and loss, through many much more successful raids. And now we see that it works quite effectively.

And just sticking air defenses on the roofs in the center of Moscow and saying that we did everything is not enough. Moscow's untested defense system can and will falter.

The Kremlin's reaction is more toothless than coordinated

ISW writes that the Kremlin issued an immediate, consistent and coordinated response. But I do not agree with this.

Official statements about the attack by drones appeared only after videos with smoke over the Kremlin appeared in public . The Russian authorities had 12 hours to work out some kind of media strategy. The statement says that the drones have been disabled, and immediately there are videos where the drones calmly fly up to the Kremlin and explode. In my opinion, this does not look like an effective and thoughtful move.

Footage of the explosion of drones over the Kremlin is now all over the media, memes have appeared about the fact that “NOR is going according to plan” - all this looks like a serious blow to the prestige of the Russian authorities. I think the Kremlin will try to hush up this story as much as possible.

The purpose of this staging is unclear.

The fascist part of Russian society after drones over the Kremlin demands escalation. Propagandists were talking all day yesterday about the “red line” and about the fact that drones over the Kremlin are an absolute reason for escalation. At the same time, the Kremlin once again says with restraint that it reserves the right to take "retaliatory measures." This reaction looks rather toothless.

It is unprofitable for the Kremlin to spend a stock of high-precision weapons: Russia does not have much of them. It is also unprofitable to carry out a nuclear strike, because this will take the situation in the world to another plane, which the Russian authorities really do not want. That is, the argument that the Kremlin was trying to justify the future escalation of the conflict by this staging does not work for me. In addition, the ISW itself admits that Russia currently does not have the opportunity and potential for escalation.

The staging is also unprofitable for that part of Russian society that tries to be "out of politics." When drones fly over the Kremlin and explode, it reduces the feeling of security: it means that it can happen anywhere. In this case, it is impossible to pretend that the war is somewhere far away, ordinary people understand that it is somewhere nearby. This part of society expects security and some kind of stability from the authorities. But the drone explosion in the center of Moscow serves a different purpose. It is no coincidence that the evening news of federal television did not show footage of a drone exploding over the Kremlin. Shooting yourself in the dome looks humiliating, assuming the Kremlin did it.