Bakhmut meat grinder

From last summer, Russian troops cannot take a small city

According to American intelligence, over the past 5 months, Russia has lost about 100 thousand military killed and wounded in Ukraine. The vast majority of these losses occurred in the Bakhmut area.

The offensive was choked

Bakhmut is a city in the Donetsk region, where about 70 thousand people lived before the start of extensive hostilities, today is almost completely destroyed. Ukrainian forces there have long been in half -reduction. Most of the quarters are currently captured by the Russian army. The track along which the ammunition and rotation of the troops are delivered is shot by the troops of the Russian Federation. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues resistance in multi -storey buildings in the west of the settlement. There are bloody street battles.

The representative of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, believes that the full -scale attacks of the Russian Federation in the Donbass chopped: “In December last year, Russia began a wide offensive in several directions, including Ugledar, Avdeevka, Bakhmut and Kremennaya. Most of these efforts stalled and failed. Russia could not capture a single strategically significant territory. ” The price of these attempts, especially in Bakhmut, according to Kirby, was incredibly high. Russia exhausted its military reserves and armed forces.

Battle for the Donbass

The Israeli military observer David Sharp reminds the readers of the New-Europe that active hostilities in the Bakhmut direction began in May last year. “In the war, a certain, sometimes far from the most strategically important point becomes a place of application of the maximum efforts of the parties and the arena of legendary battles,” says David Sharp. - So it was in Verden in the First World War or in Stalingrad in the Second World War. If the Germans managed to go to the Volga hundreds of meters, this would not have changed anything. ”

In 2022, after the spring retreat from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and part of the Kharkov regions, Russia focused on the so -called “Battle of Donbass”. The idea of ​​the Russians, according to David Sharp, was surrounded and destroyed by a significant Ukrainian group in the Slavic-Kramatorsky agglomeration due to the offensive from the "Izuyumsky ledge" and, on the other hand, through the Bakhmut. This would allow Moscow to announce full control of the Donetsk region. By July, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk were taken, and advancement began directly to Bakhmut. As a result of a random flight of the Russian Federation from the Kharkov region in September 2022

It was the Bakhmut direction that remained practically the only one on which the Russian army and PMCs conducted active offensive actions.

At the same time, the threat of blocking the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the Slavic and Kramatorsky was completely removed.

The Ukrainian military expert, the colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Roman Svitan calls the “New Evrop” the main reasons that forced to throw more and more forces to the storm of the settlement. Svatan agrees that the capture of Bakhmut would give the Russian side the operational scope for further advance at the Slavic-Kramatorsky agglomeration. But our interlocutor also calls another possible reason. It is through Bakhmut that there is a water water from the Raigorodka, feeding Donetsk, Mariupol and other cities of Donbass. From 2014 to 2022, Ukraine continued to supply the “DPR” with water on this channel, but after the start of a full -scale invasion, the shelling destroyed the pumping substations, and the moisture stopped acting. Probably, the Russian authorities decided to launch water by capturing the channel to all its length.

Specialists bring other probable causes of Russian deadly pressure to Bakhmut. “After the Kherson de-Kquation, the command of the Russian Federation tried to chop the maximum number of Ukrainian troops near Bakhmut,” Alexander Musienko, head of the Center for Military Forest Research, explains Novo-Europe. - Frightened by the development of the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians increased the pressure in the eastern direction. They hoped that Ukraine would throw reserves into battle, this would make a full -scale counterattack impossible. However, the Ukrainian military cope with the most difficult task of the defense of the city without attracting additional forces that are now preparing for blows to the army of the Russian Federation. ”

According to Alexander Musienko, the Russians fell into their own trap: not managing to grind Ukrainian forces, Moscow is forced to throw more and more reserves into the beeings of assaults. The place of the Vagnerians who retired are occupied by motorized rifles and paratroopers. Our interlocutor is confident that the actions of Ukraine in Bakhmut should be perceived as a preparation for counterattack. After all, the defense of the city fulfilled its task: destroying many combat -ready units, tore off the Russian offensive.

"Meat assault"

In attacks on the city, the leadership of the PMC and the Russian army uses the tactics of the so -called "meat assaults". “Bakhmut is convenient in that it can be attacking him only by infantry, to a lesser extent than usual, covering it with armored vehicles,” says David Sharp. - Here, a resource of 50 thousand criminals collected in the colonies, ready under pain of execution and, in anticipation of an amnesty and reward, climbed into close urban buildings. It must be understood that the formations consisting of prisoners fit poorly into the usual military -working battle. For this, they do not have enough coherence, training, controllability and discipline. Despite the fact that we are talking about extremely poorly trained parts, they managed to achieve positive dynamics with the help of this suicidal dedication. The team of the group at the same time demonstrated the willingness to not reckon with the losses. ” It was possible to continue the assault on the forces of PMCs even in rainy and snowy weather, when military operations are usually suspended.

Symbol for struggle

The mastery of Bakhmut, apparently, turned out to be for the Russian government and personally for Evgeny Prigozhin as a matter of principle. But for Kyiv, the city began to be a symbol, which would only be problematic to surrender. Although many, including American, experts suggested that the abandonment of Bakhmut is justified strategically, the propaganda, media and political components are now important.

Kyiv is convinced that in the event of a winning Bakhmut meat grinder, Vladimir Putin will force the Ukrainian side to unacceptable decisions.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky explained his position in this matter: “Putin will sell this victory to the West, Russian society, China, Iran. If he feels blood, feels that we are weak, he will begin to crush, crush, crush. ” In addition, according to Zelensky, in the event of a defeat in Bakhmut, Ukrainian society can feel fatigue and begin to push the president to a compromise.

"Complete Zashkvar"

However, recently, judging by the loud messages of some sources, the situation began to change in favor of Ukraine. So, Evgeny Prigozhin, who is considered the head of the “PMC“ Wagner ”, said in a recent interview to the Russian“ military commissar ”Semyon Pegova that his subordinates really suffer serious losses:“ The guys are dying with me. Just every day in packs. Thousands, thousands of bodies that we pull out, put in coffins and send home. ”

The enormous number of dead Prigozhin already habitually explains the lack of ammunition at the “PMC“ Wagner ”. Judging by him, Russian military functionaries deliberately keep the mercenaries in a state of “shell hunger”.

“I have a letter to the Minister of Defense Sergei Kuzhuhetovich Shoigu,” said Prigozhin in an interview. - I abbreviate you that the Wagner PMC is storming the village of Bakhmut and is experiencing serious ammunition problems, the so -called “shell hunger”. The supply of the main types of artillery ammunition is no more than 20–25 % of existing needs. ”

Applying to immediately provide shells, the head of Wagner blackmail the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and even Putin personally Putin with the possibility of withdrawing his subordinates from occupied positions:

“In case of refusal of this issuance, I consider it necessary to convey to the supreme commander of the information about the existing problem for the decision on the appropriateness of the further finding of the Wagner PMC in the village of Bakhmut in the conditions of the current ammunition deficit. If the deficit of ammunition is not replenished, then we will be forced to withdraw from this territory in an organized manner. And then, no matter how our bureaucrats would like, everything else will spy ... If we had not begun to castrate in ammunition, then Bakhmut, I assure you, have long been taken and would not have been put so many people. ”

According to Roman Svitan, Evgeny Prigozhin’s loud statements about the departure from Bakhmut may be caused by the need to quickly abandon the territories occupied during bloody assaults. After all, deeply wedged in the position of the enemy of the formation of the "PMC" Wagner "are on both sides of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces and can soon be surrounded.

David Sharp does not exclude that the Ukrainian side has plans to soon go on a tactical attack on this site and discard or surround Wagner’s formations. However, according to the Israeli military observer, at the moment, nothing threatens the Russian units in Bakhmut. The Israeli military observer does not consider the Bakhmut district a priority for the APU attacks.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s public statements about the possible unauthorized withdrawal of the forces subordinate to him David Sharp calls the explicit bend and the transition of all possible boundaries. “For such a person as Prigozhin, this is called a“ full hull, ”says David Sharp. - The Russian command was to be very surprised at such threats. It is extremely difficult for me to believe that you can decide outside the order of the leadership to withdraw the troops and open the gap in the defense on the most difficult section of the front. This demonstrates the state of the Russian armed forces in general. ”

A sea of ​​blood

John Kirby, referring to the declassified data of the American intelligence community, said that more than 20 thousand Russian military had died in Ukraine since December last year, and another 80 thousand were injured. The military official explained that a significant part of these losses occurred during the battle for Bakhmut.

According to the US intelligence, almost half of the dead are “Wagnerians”, most of whom were Russian prisoners thrown into the battle in Bakhmut without sufficient combat experience, preparation, command and any semblance of organizational order.

“I assume that during the last time last year in the North-Sledic-Soledar-Bakhmut, the Russian army and PMCs lost a total of up to 60 thousand killed,” Roman Svitan expressed his opinion. - Since December, the Wagner Group has been able to advance a maximum of 30 km. I can assume that the data on losses voiced by the Pentagon for 5 months even below what is in reality, and Russia's losses can be up to 30 thousand “two hundred” and even up to 70 thousand heavy “three hundred”, which will not return to the front. ”

David Sharp offers the figure of Russian losses voiced by John Kirby seriously and calls it the closest to reality. The US intelligence, according to him, is used for analysis both agent information and data from satellites and interceptions of correspondence and negotiations.

At the same time, our interlocutor made several reservations. “I have doubts very round numbers,” says David Sharp. - When they talk about 100 thousand who have retired Russian military, it seems that we are talking about a generalized approach. Typically, in the reports and reports, minimal and maximum boundaries of the permissible error are used. In addition, in my opinion, there are questions to the proportion of the number of those killed to the wounded. According to American data, it is one to four. According to other estimates, one deceased accounts for a maximum of 3.5 injuries. And sometimes during attacks and because of the obvious problems of Russia with tactical medicine and evacuation, this number is 2.5. I can assume that in reality the dead Russians may turn out to be slightly more than the Americans say. ”

The total number of Russian losses from February 24, 2022 killed and wounded, according to Sharp, has already exceeded 250 thousand and may well approach 300 thousand.

Ukrainians are more careful about their personnel. But they also suffer significant losses. John Kirby refused to name data on the estimates of Ukrainian losses, informing reporters that Washington would not publish the information complicating the position of Ukraine.

A suitcase without a pen

“Today it is already obvious to everyone that Bakhmut for Russia is a suitcase without a pen,” says Roman Svitan. - Even if we assume that Ukraine will withdraw troops from the city, this will not change anything: a few tens of kilometers later there is a fortified area of ​​Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkovka and Konstantinovka. They cannot be taken absolutely for sure. Based on the current situation, the command of the army of the Russian Federation needs to move today from the captured plots and on the eve of the Ukrainian counterattack to straighten the front in the direction of Gorlovka - Popasnaya - Lisichansk. But Moscow fell into a trap of their own propaganda: for so many months people have been told about the importance of Bakhmut, so much blood has been shed for him that the retreat will be difficult to explain to citizens. ”

Roman Svitan is convinced that units preparing for the expected counterattack of Ukraine did not participate in the battles for Bakhmut. All troops trained by the allied countries and equipped with weapons obtained by Lend-Lease are in reserve and are waiting in the wings. Today in Bakhmut, the forces of special operations of Ukraine mainly operate.

By the end of April, Ukraine, according to David Sharp, received almost all the armored vehicles and ammunition promised by Western partners. Courses for the training and preparation of crews for tanks, BMP, BTR and other weapons have been completed. The weather in the near future should be suitable for attacking actions. Apparently, now it all depends on the decision of the Ukrainian military command.

However, under Bakhmut, experts expect only tactical maneuvers from Ukrainians. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine does not make sense to start a large -scale attack on the Donbass located on the hill,” said Roman Svitan. - At the same time, you can put the whole army. The blow will be delivered in an unexpected place towards the Sea of ​​Azov. The front in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya directions is stretched by hundreds of kilometers. The Ukrainian army will almost inevitably break through the position of the enemy and will soon go to the coast, cutting the ground corridor to the Crimea. ” According to Roman Svitan, the Ukrainian counterattack may begin after May 6–7. For this, the soil is required to dry after the rains and the technique does not stick in the mud.