Prigozhin's ultimatum: what it means and what they say about it

Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he would have to withdraw the PMC from Bakhmut. The reason may be not only heavy losses and a conflict with the Ministry of Defense

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The founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin said today that his company will leave Bakhmut on May 10, because “near-war bureaucrats” have “practically cut us off from any artillery ammunition” since May 1. According to him, the supply barely reaches 10% of the norm.

“On May 10, 2023, we are forced to transfer positions in the Bakhmut settlement to units of the Ministry of Defense and withdraw the remnants of Wagner PMCs to rear camps in order to lick their wounds. I am withdrawing Wagner units from Bakhmut, because in the absence of ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death, ”the statement says. It is addressed to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, Supreme Commander Vladimir Putin and the entire Russian people. Among other things, Prigozhin accused the military leadership of envying the successes of PMCs and of postscripts of personnel on the flanks of the Wagner - "instead of tens of thousands, tens and rarely hundreds of fighters."

Shortly before this, Prigozhin recorded another appeal against the backdrop of the dead "Wagnerites" with a demand to urgently eliminate the shortage of shells and obscene language in relation to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

What does it mean

In fact, on the eve of May 9, Prigozhin put forward a tough ultimatum to the Ministry of Defense, which does not suggest an alternative to fulfilling his demands. The Ministry of Defense has nothing to replace the Wagner grouping with, according to the most conservative estimates, at least 10 thousand people, especially in a week and especially on the eve of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Not to mention the complexity of such an operation in itself.

Prigozhin threatened to withdraw PMCs before (the last time in an interview with the WarGonzo military enlistment project): “If the shortage of ammunition is not replenished, then we will have to be in an organized manner so as not to run away like cowardly rats later, either go out or stay to die.” But at this level, and even more so with the date, the ultimatum was announced for the first time.

The Kremlin, represented by Dmitry Peskov, said on Friday that it knew about Prigozhin's new speech, but did not comment on it, the state media also covered it extremely sparingly. Officially, Prigozhin's conflict with Russia's military leadership is not recognized, although it spilled over into the public arena in mid-February. Even in the latest leak from the Pentagon, there was information that Putin personally tried to reconcile Shoigu and the founder of the PMC .

The Ministry of Defense in a Friday release mentioned that assault detachments (as the Ministry of Defense calls PMCs) continue their offensive in the western part of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) with the support of the airborne forces.

They talk about it

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) , believes that in fact the Wagner enjoyed supply advantages, and the current lack of ammunition is general and is associated with the accumulation of ammunition before the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He predicts that Wagner will eventually take Bakhmut, and Prigozhin will reproach the military leadership for the fact that something, unlike him, did not fulfill any of the goals of the winter offensive.

The Hill notes that conflicts of this kind are an inevitable consequence of the very existence of PMCs, violating the principle of one-man command, fundamental in military organization. The publication does not exclude that Prigozhin has a secret motive - to withdraw and save troops loyal to him in order to "bet on the main prize in case of failure of Putin and his generals - to become the modern tsar of the Russian Empire."

There are no signs of any withdrawal of troops from Bakhmut by Russian military channels - on the contrary, tension is only increasing. They do not see any gap in the fighting and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Channel "Rybar" considers new in what is happening only the transition of the old conflict between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense into the phase of public accusations. Prigozhin more than once directly accused Shoigu of creating a culture of substitutions and imitations in the Armed Forces - the channel hopes that at least the escalation "will push for the adoption of certain - so necessary today - decisions."