The cost of war in Ukraine. Online May 10

The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.

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20:19 Russian budget deficit for four months exceeded the plan for the whole year

According to the updated estimate of the Ministry of Finance, in the first four months of 2023, federal budget revenues decreased by 22% compared to the same period in 2022 to 7.782 trillion rubles, while expenditures increased by 26% to 11.206 trillion rubles. The deficit thus reached 3.42 trillion rubles, which is more than the plan for the whole year (2.9 trillion rubles).

The Ministry of Finance draws attention to the fact that the dynamics of non-oil and gas revenues is positive, while oil and gas "is gradually entering a stable trajectory corresponding to their base level of 8 trillion rubles a year." But so far they have fallen by 52% to 2.28 trillion rubles.

We wrote more about the dynamics of the Russian budget here .

16:51 Vladimir Putin signed an annual decree on conscripting citizens from the reserve for military training. Of its four points, two are for official use - but this is also a traditional feature of such decrees. Last year, the document was signed on February 18.

According to the law, the reserve can be called for training no more than once every three years and for a period of no more than 2 months. Privates and sergeants are called up for training at the age of up to 35 years, junior officers - up to 50 years old, and senior officers - up to 55 years old. Failure to appear on the agenda for the training camp is an administrative offense and is punishable by a fine.

15:54 Inflation in the US in April looks better than expected. This increases the likelihood that the Fed will take a break from raising rates.

April inflation in the US is in line with or slightly better than expected by various metrics, follows from today's publication of the US Department of Labor. Headline inflation was 4.9% yoy (5.0% in March) and 0.4% m/m, inflation excluding food and energy was 5.5% (5.6%), and inflation in the service sector (5.1%) was the lowest since last July.
The long-term goal of the Fed - 2% inflation - is still very far away, and some components of the overall index are growing at a faster pace: rental housing by 0.6% compared to March, the cost of used cars - by 4.4%.
The US market, which was waiting for the release of these statistics, reacted without surprises: stocks in general grew, the dollar weakened.

14:57 Turkey has already taken advantage of the $600 million deferral of payments for Russian gas for 2024, learned Reuters . All in all, the agreement with Russia provides for a deferral of up to $4 billion. Neither figure has been published so far, although the fact that Turkey has achieved a deferral from Gazprom became known a week ago .

The news is positive for incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the context of the toughest May 14 election of his career. The cost of living crisis, including due to energy prices and the weakening of the lira, is the main threat to its position, the agency notes. Russia provides 30% of Turkey's natural gas needs (last year - almost 22 billion cubic meters, estimated at $12 billion).

13:47 Bloomberg has obtained recently closed data from the Ministry of Energy, confirming the reduction in oil production in Russia. In April, oil production amounted to 1.319 million tons of oil, which in terms of 9.67 million barrels per day - 443,000 barrels per day less than in February.

The same Bloomberg, which regularly monitors Russian maritime exports to the accuracy of a tanker batch, does not note a decrease in these deliveries - on the contrary, they are growing. The growth in exports with a decrease in production can be explained by a decrease in refining, and the negative dynamics in April promises to be more noticeable than in March.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak insisted that the reduction in production by 500,000 barrels per day is being implemented, and the growth in exports by sea is still associated with a reduction in pipeline exports through Druzhba.

13:35 In Kaluga Przemysl (180 km from Moscow), it was confirmed that a drone flying to Moscow was shot down near the city the day before, on May 9: "no damage, no destruction." The message of the Mash channel about two more drones allegedly landed on the same day - one on approach to Moscow in the Bitsevsky forest, the other - on the territory of the Lomonosovsky district of the South-West Administrative District - was not confirmed .

13:27 The dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange briefly went below 76 rubles - for the first time since the end of March. At the same time, Brent oil is more expensive than $76 per barrel, and there is still no reduction in Russian oil supplies by sea . Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak insisted that the reduction in production by 500,000 barrels per day is being implemented, and the growth in exports by sea is associated with a reduction in pipeline exports through Druzhba.

12:48 Putin also lifted the ban for Russian airlines on flights to Georgia.

12:46 Putin canceled the visa regime for Georgian citizens from May 15. Now a passport is enough for Georgian citizens to enter Russia.

The main thing for the night and morning:

Yesterday's Victory Parade in Moscow was the most modest in recent years: only one tank passed through Red Square - a vintage T-34 from the Second World War. And the air part of the parade was canceled despite good weather. There was also no traditional "Immortal Regiment". Parades were canceled in more than twenty regions altogether. Foreign media explain the modesty of the parade with the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive and the recent drone attack and are ironic about Putin's speech. of the leaders of the CIS countries in Moscow was unexpected The arrival , Peskov said that no one was invited.
PMC "Wagner" is not leaving Bakhmut yet, as Prigozhin promised earlier . Over the weekend, he first announced that on May 10, at exactly midnight, he would transfer positions in Bakhmut to the Chechen special forces "Akhmat". But on May 9, during a parade on Red Square, Prigozhin released another video in which he again criticized the Russian military leadership and spoke about the flight of a unit of the Ministry of Defense from the battlefield. Nevertheless, now "Wagner", according to him, received a part (about 10% of the required volume) of ammunition. “We’ll fight for a few more days, and then we’ll figure it out,” Prigozhin said.
The Ministry of Digital Transformation has published a draft resolution on a unified register of military records. The document was first published on Friday, but was immediately deleted , and reappeared in the database over the long weekend. from the project It follows that the register will contain 25 data fields about citizens, including full name and other passport information, email, phone number, TIN, place of residence, marital status and number of children, information about the employer or educational institution, as well as information about criminal records . The database will also include information about the state of health of a person liable for military service, including information about mental disorders. The document emphasizes that the updating of data in the registry should be carried out "around the clock in real time." The testing of the registry is planned for the second half of this year, it should fully start functioning in 2025. The creation of a unified register of military registration is provided for by the same law that introduces the concept of electronic summonses. We talked about how an electronic call will be turned into a superdatabase. here .
By the end of 2030, only 28 SSJ-100 aircraft out of more than 150 may remain in operation if the repair of the Russian-French engines installed on the aircraft fails. This is reported by Kommersant with reference to manufacturers' estimates. They, according to the publication, asked the airlines to estimate the number of SSJs, the engines of which should be replaced with the expected domestic PD-8s. Sources of Kommersant say that those SSJs that have been actively flying since the spring of 2022 will begin to “stand up” en masse in a year. Airlines do not really believe that the engines can be quickly replaced with Russian ones, and they expect to arrange repairs in Iran, where "40 years of experience with foreign engines have been accumulated."
Joe Biden and the leaders of the US Congress failed to agree on raising the national debt ceiling. Nevertheless, the president called the meeting productive and said he was ready to start a discussion about the budget, "but not under the threat of a default." Over the weekend, Republican senators refused to approve an increase in the US debt ceiling (now $31.4 trillion) without spending and budget reforms.
A jury in a Manhattan court found Donald Trump guilty of sexual harassment and libel against writer Jean Carroll. The ex-president was ordered to pay the victim almost $3 million for moral damages and another $2 million for beatings. Caroll accused Trump of rape in the spring of 1996, but was unable to prove it. Nevertheless, the jury considered it proven that the politician had harassed her, and when the writer made this information public, he tried to slander her, calling the accusations "a hoax and a lie." Trump said he "has no idea who this woman is" and called the jury's verdict a witch hunt. Trump was indicted in April in connection with the 2016 payouts to porn star Stormy Daniels. What it threatens him with, we told here .
For more than a year, Russia has been testing new types of blocking, with the help of which Roskomnadzor can block VPN services directly, without entering prohibited information into the registry. How VPNs are blocked now and what users can expect next - in the new issue of the tech newsletter .