How the world changes

The focus is the new architecture of world security, the elections in Turkey and the influence of their outcome on relations with Russia, the question of the advantage of possessing revolutionary technologies and the problem of environmental degradation.

New architecture of world security

Triangular polarity (Alexander Stubb, The Financial Times )

• The world will be divided into three centers of power - a triangle consisting of a global south, west and east

• The West wants to preserve the current liberal world order

• The East wants to overthrow the liberal order and form a new system based on more acceptable conditions

• The south wants to stay away from the conflict of the West and the East, being dissatisfied with what influence the struggle for hegemony has on the cost of energy resources and food

• The world will be divided into a number of regional blocks and trans -regional unions, which will exist independently of each other

Prosperity with China or instability with the United States (Lib Bin Jung, South China Morning Post)

• Dividing countries into authoritarian and democratic - counter -productive

• The world is changing, and the United States is time to adapt to a new reality

• Washington's reluctance to recognize the new rules of the game helps to destabilize the world environment

• China wants to avoid “Fukidid trap”, that is, war with the United States, therefore strives for non -conflict and mutually beneficial cooperation with all countries

• Stability and global prosperity of the economy - in the interests of China

Not Ukraine is important, but the new security architecture (Stephen Brian, Asia Times )

• The forecast of Kissinger about possible peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is incorrect

• The positions of the parties are so implacable that the probability of success at the moment is extremely low

• The Russian leadership considers NATO as a full -fledged participant in the conflict

• Russia tried to reach NATO and the United States, sending them warnings about the need to discuss the status of Ukraine and the new European security system

• The West in a rude way ignored the concern of Russia, which led to a bloody conflict

• The truce, which the parties want to achieve, should mainly go beyond the end of the Ukrainian conflict and focus on the new world security architecture

Elections in Turkey

Abstract far from the Turkish opposition (jihan tagal, The New York Times)

• There is no need to wait for the Turkish opposition to prevail in the elections, then it will be able to solve the structural problems that have been pursuing the country for years

• Recipes offer leading opposition parties are outdated

• Their ideas no longer meet new conditions - the world economic climate has become less friendly, and the rate on the liberalization of trade and the ideology of the free market will not work now

• The Erdogan Party (PSR) is actively promoting state intervention in the economy, sponsoring the country's industrialization, which meets the requirements of the current economic situation

• The PSR also participates in the grassroots policy and achieves the support of the general population through close interaction with local communities

• Despite all the shortcomings of the opposition, her victory is more desirable than the next triumph of Erdogan

Whatever president to choose - it will still turn out Erdogan (Elmira Bayrasli, CNN )

• In the event of a change of president, Türkiye will preserve the pro -Russian policy vector, since its economic interests are closely related to Moscow

• Russia provides an influx of currency from tourism and the supply of energy resources, which sometimes goes on credit

• If the new Turkish president decides to dissociate himself from Russia, then Putin will crush and blackmail the Turkish government so that Ankara continues close interaction with the Kremlin

• Even in the event of Erdogan’s defeat, his party will preserve a significant representation in the Turkish parliament, which will allow the PSR to preserve the levers of pressure on the government

Miscellaneous

Paganism - the key to the salvation of the planet (Ed Simon, Aeon )

• The root of all evils - the separation of man from nature that occurred when humanity abandoned paganism under the influence of Christianity

• Christianity endowed a person with the highest ontological status in relation to other creatures and the environment, which led to the establishment of a violent attitude to nature

• This process can be called the desecalization of nature or, using the term Max Weber, "bewitting the world"

• The era of anthropocene is a catastrophic result of the continuing process of rejection of a pagan worldview

• In order to gain unity with nature, a person needs to return to his pagan roots and save himself

Who did not have time - he did not ate (Barry Eichengrin, Project Syndicate )

• Now America has the status of a leader in the field of AI, but no one can guarantee that she will be able to save him in the future

• Previously, the opening of revolutionary technologies could guarantee her long -term leadership, which was in the case of Britain where James Watt invented the steam engine

• Many developing countries, such as India and the Philippines, may encounter the negative consequences of the spread of AI, which is able to undermine the stability of their economy (something similar has already happened in history with India and China when Britain filled their markets with its industrial goods)

• Nevertheless, the United States managed to catch up with Britain and take the status of a leading industrial power from it

• The same thing can happen to America that China is able to catch up, using its unlimited capabilities in the field of control over the economy and authoritarian management methods