On May 28, the second round of elections of the President of Turkey will be held, and Erdogan will most likely win them

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Moreover, this would have happened without the support of 5% in the first round of the ideologically close to him by Sinan Ogan.

In the second round, anti -ratings are important and the feeling of someone who grows and who falls.

The opposition made a big strategic mistake, creating in advance the effect of high expectations and spreading high forecasts. Contrary to Kylychdaroglu, he not only did not lead, but significantly lost to Erdogan in the first round and only a percent share did not allow Erdogan to win already in the first round. In Istanbul and Ankara, opposition centers, collapse of Klychdaroglu is very small. At the same time, in the first round, the effect of cumulative mobilization worked simultaneously both the presidential and parliamentary elections, where there were supporters of a number of parties, who were not personal supporters of Kylychdaroglu.

In the second round, they have much less motive to go to sites. At the same time, the parliament is already “Erdoganovsky”. Roughly speaking, the opposition has already overheated its voters. The result of the first round for many shock and demoralization. If there weren’t these forecasts and expectations, but on the contrary, it would have looked and would have been perceived that Klychdarogly had better expectations, it would be the opposite: this is clearly not. Just do not win.

Demoralization led to the defocusing of the campaign after the first round, which only enhances the effect of demoralization.

And no anti -ratings will help here.

Why? Because anti -ratings are different. It is one thing when the anti -rating roughly speaking 60% or 70%, then the president with such a rating in the second round will lose almost anyone. So almost anyone in 2019 in the second round in Ukraine was lost by Poroshenko. But if a situation of equality, then this does not work. Moreover, Kylychdaroglu is definitely not a charismatic and not a candidate of new hope. Among the opposition to each other is also a lot of claims that have accumulated over many years.

Well, do not forget that traditionally the appearance on the periphery is always and everywhere above the turnout in large cities.

Morality is simple: high expectations and forecasts are very dangerous, it is worth stimulating with them, and the whole concept collapses. Good wishes should not replace a sober analysis.