Ukraine has reduced the effectiveness of Russian strikes

Why does Moscow keep shelling Kyiv?

The Russian military has set a record for the number of attacks on Kyiv since the beginning of the war: in May, the Ukrainian capital was subjected to 17 attacks. True, the effectiveness of these strikes raises questions: the Ukrainian authorities claim that they managed to repel almost 100% of the strikes on the city. The supply of Western weapons to Ukraine has led to a drop in the accuracy of Russian shelling, but this does not stop Moscow from stepping up strikes on Kyiv. Kholod figured out why Russia continues its attacks if Ukraine has learned how to successfully repel them.

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Russian troops prefer to bomb the Ukrainian capital at night. In May, in total, the Russian side attacked Kiev 17 times: 1 , 3 , 4 , 8 , 9 , 13 , 14 , 16 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 25 , 26 , 28 , 29 and 30 May. On the 29th, attacks on the capital were made twice: first at night , and six hours later, also during the day . The most massive attacks on Kyiv fell on the days of celebrating the victory in World War II - May 8 and 9. On the eighth, were sent 35 drones to the capital, on the ninth - about a dozen cruise missiles, both "high-precision attacks", according to the Ukrainian authorities, were completely repelled. In turn, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that it had hit all the targets.

The shelling on May 16 turned out to be successful for the Russian military: representatives of the Ministry of Defense stated that the Kinzhal hypersonic missile destroyed a radio station and five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system (SAM). However, two days later, US Department of Defense spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said that one Patriot system was damaged in the Russian strike, but the damage was not serious, and the air defense system was repaired.

One of the most massive strikes on Kyiv was carried out by Russian troops on City Day - May 28. The city authorities reported that the air defense system was able to shoot down more than 40 drones, the Ukrainian Armed Forces claimed that a total of 54 drones attacked Ukraine that day, 52 of which were shot down. The Ukrainian military claims that on the night of May 28, Russia released a record number of Iranian Shahed drones. The Russian Defense Ministry did not comment on this information.

The last major attack on Kyiv in May took place on the 30th. Ukrainian authorities reported one dead and several wounded. On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke, who proudly announced that one of the previous days, Russian troops had hit the headquarters of the military intelligence of Ukraine. in the Z-channels Later, photos and videos of the alleged consequences of attacks on the headquarters began to appear . “We have already talked about the possibility of striking at decision-making headquarters, at decision-making centers. Of course, the military intelligence headquarters of Ukraine, which was hit two or three days ago, also belongs to this category, ” said Putin to him . According , the Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow and the Moscow region on May 30 was a response to a strike on the headquarters. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian side denies any involvement in the drone attack, although CNN sources claim that Kiev has a network of well-trained agents in Russia. The Ukrainian side did not confirm the attacks on the intelligence headquarters in Kyiv.

According to the reports of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Ukrainian authorities, in May, the air defense managed to repel 88% of air attacks. According to Kholod’s calculations, out of approximately 573 projectiles (drones and rockets) fired at Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to shoot down about 502. Moreover, damage to civilian infrastructure and human casualties were significantly reduced: as a result of the shelling of Kyiv in May, two people were killed. Experts interviewed by Kholod confirm the decline in the effectiveness of Russian shelling, but analysts are divided on the reasons for the continuation of the attacks.

Why bomb Kyiv?

In May, Russian strikes were directed mainly at the Ukrainian capital - Russia attacked Kiev with everything that could reach the city: drones and missiles. Experts attribute the intensification of attacks to various reasons: it could be a counter-offensive of Ukraine that has already begun or is being prepared - in this way, the Russian army wants to weaken the operation, as well as divert the attention of the country's authorities. There is another version: Russia is actively attacking Kyiv, as it wants to disable the American Patriot air defense systems.

Military researcher Kirill Mikhailov believes that the Russian army may be trying to deplete the Ukrainian air defense missiles, but, he said, “it is difficult to rely on the Russian military leadership to act logically.”

The researcher suggests that the Russian army may have another goal - to keep Ukraine's air defense systems deep in the rear and prevent them from being deployed at the front. "What is it for? In order to weaken the air defense cover of Ukrainian mechanized formations when they participate in the counteroffensive. The more air defense in Kyiv, the less it is at the front,” he says.

FBK military analyst Yan Matveev also thinks that the increase in Russian attacks on Kyiv may be due to the installation of the Patriot air defense system. “The Russian army is trying to identify it and destroy it. Firstly, to continue the terror of the city, and secondly, to loudly declare "victory over the Patriot." Another possible reason is the Ukrainian counteroffensive. With their strikes, Russian troops are trying to divert the attention of the Ukrainian authorities, among other things,” he clarifies. Pavel Luzin, a visiting fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University in the United States, shares a similar point of view: in his opinion, Russia is trying to disrupt the preparations for the Ukrainian offensive.

Military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan says that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began in the first ten days of May and the Russians cannot stop it. “The only place where they can make efforts at one point is the capital, since several million people live there, the government, and it is the capital that is now the point of application of the efforts of the Russians, since they cannot dump everything along the entire front line. But in terms of the civilian population and government quarters, this is the only lever of pressure left for the Russians, ”he said.

Luzin supports this view: he says Russian attacks have not been effective since last fall. “Russian missile terror tactics are aimed at increasing the suffering of civilians and almost do not affect military installations. Such criminal behavior, such immorality at the state level cannot be effective a priori. But for every action there is a reaction, and Ukraine armed itself, learned how to deal with these attacks, ”he notes.

The capabilities of the Russian army in terms of attacks are indeed quite limited, including the number of ammunition and drones: their production takes time, and the Russian military spends them quickly enough, says Kirill Mikhailov. At the same time, missiles or drones most often, if they damage, either civilian objects or military ones, which are not of great importance.

“They could try to hit some command posts and supplies, but it’s clear that these are all very mobile things and good intelligence is needed for this. Russia simply does not have good intelligence. All these large-scale attacks on military facilities that we have seen in recent months were mainly attacks on Soviet warehouses. Some kind of aviation ammunition, spent rocket fuel are stored there. It's annoying, but it's not the main equipment that's currently in use,” he explains.

Mikhailov believes that the Russians are wasting cruise missiles, unless the ultimate goal of the Russian army is to deplete ammunition for Patriot air defense systems. However, the US plans to send new missiles to these complexes; therefore, Ukraine will have them for some time. Yan Matveev notes that Russian troops have been attacking Ukraine for more than a year with the same ammunition - Kh-55, Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, Iskander and S-300 missiles, as well as Shahed drones, but for At this time, Ukrainian air defense systems have strengthened and learned how to effectively counter them.

The drop in the effectiveness of Russian shelling is largely due to the supply of Patriot systems: the missiles of the complex allowed Ukraine to shoot down the “indestructible” hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. The successful use of the Patriot against the "Daggers" was confirmed in Washington. Nevertheless, analysts agree that Ukraine still has not succeeded in leveling the threat of Russian attacks completely. All the same "Daggers" managed to damage one of the two Patriot complexes in service with Ukraine. Finally, even if drones and missiles are successfully neutralized, their debris is not. According to Roman Svitan, repelled mass attacks lead to several tens of tons of iron that can fall on the city.

What's next?

Russia is consuming a large amount of scarce ammunition, while Ukraine is forced to strengthen the defense of the capital, partially reducing the potential and success of the counteroffensive. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also facing a shortage of ammunition, especially for modern Western-style systems.

“This is again turning into a war of attrition,” says Kirill Mikhailov, “who has more missiles and whose industry can rebuild faster. And the Russians, as in the case of the ground war, hope that this time they will succeed and that this time Ukraine will run out of missiles earlier. This is the only rational explanation." Pavel Luzin points out that the attacks are causing the Russian army to waste resources it can barely replenish. Attacks on Kyiv forced Russian troops to spend too many missiles, and now, according to the expert, Moscow is forced to save money.

Armed Forces Reserve Colonel Roman Svitan says tensions escalating over Russia's attacks on Kyiv will come to the fore during Ukraine's offensive. “Each drop of Ukrainian blood, each tear will eventually pour out into thousands of tons of ammunition on the heads of the Russian army. Therefore, in this sense, the Russians are making things worse for themselves,” Svitan believes.

The decrease in the effectiveness of Russian strikes, however, does not guarantee the absence of civilian casualties or a reduction in shelling from Moscow. Since the beginning of June, Russia has already bombarded Kiev three times; in the June 1 attack in the capital three people were killed , more than in the whole of May.