From the breakthrough of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the coast of the Dnieper occupied by Russia will suffer the most

In October 2022, the engineers of the Dämningsverket hydrogeological company simulated the “worst scenario” of the breakthrough of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station based on the radar topographic survey of NASA and through the software of the US Army engineering corps. The data was published by the Swedish IT specialist and author of Lars Vilderang.

In the model, experts did not take into account that on the eve of the disaster, Russia brought the water level in the Kakhovsky reservoir to critical 17.5 m, respectively, many of the predicted events can occur earlier. In the original version of the model, the water level was 14 m.

The engineers also proceeded from the fact that the explosion would demolish all the dams of the dam (200 meters). TASS writes about a breakthrough 11 of 28 spans.

At the moment, it is unclear whether the incident that happened was precisely. Ukraine states that the army was blown up by the army, Russia accuses Ukraine of a missile impact or sabotage . At the same time, the Russian State Agencies first reported that there were no explosions at all. Christopher Miller, correspondent of Financial Times, notes that satellite images show how the dam was destroyed after May 28 without undermining.

Dämningsverket flood model

The most severe consequences of floods will be given to the left bank of the Dnieper, where Russian troops are located. Experts predicted that a wave of 4-5 m high would hit the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson about 19 hours after the breakthrough (that is, by the evening of June 6). The right tributary of the Dnieper Ingolets will come out of the shores, and after 4-5 days the flood will affect the Southern Bug river in Nikolaev.

Kherson for the most part will not be flooded, the flood will affect only the port and area of ​​the docks. Settlements on both banks of the Dnieper will also be flooded. Victims among the population are not excluded. The Council of National Security of Ukraine announced the threat of flooding of 80 settlements with a total population of 16 thousand people. Now, according to Russia and Ukraine , on both sides of the Dnieper in the risk zone there are 36 thousand people. The Ministry of Emergencies of the Russian Federation sent an airmobile group to the distress zone.

Swedish engineers also predicted that 50 hours after the breakthrough of the dam, they would completely flood the Kinburn braid - an isthmus behind the Dnieper delta.

Flooding peak - 14 thousand cubic meters of water per second. For comparison, in calm conditions, the Dnieper carries 2400 cubic meters of water per second, and the Niagara waterfall - 2400 m3/s.

Experts are also afraid that due to floods will change the water level in the Pond-Coillady of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. The nuclear power plant itself said that the level remains the same - 16.67 m. "[NPP] is worth it, and it does not shine for a couple of years. The reactors are repaired, ”a specialist in the Russian nuclear industry anonymously told“ important stories ”. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine is also afraid of flooding of thermal power plant in Kherson.