"We will return in the 30s." The consequences of the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station

In the Kherson region of Ukraine in settlements located below the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station along the Dnieper, the second day the water level continues to grow after the destruction of the damage of the hydroelectric power station. Dozens of villages were completely under water, thousands of people were forced to leave the usual places of residence. Seven people are missing. The environmental and humanitarian disaster is no less in scale in the area of the Kakhovsky reservoir, the water in which is rapidly decreasing.

The Ukrainian authorities blame Russia without a deliberate undermining the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station on the night of June 6, although after a day Vladimir Zelensky admitted in an interview with the German publication Bild, which Ukraine has not yet accepted evidence of the direct involvement of the Russian military in its destruction. Official representatives of the US Presidential Administration are refrained in principle to talk about "demolition", and experts admit that the set of the design could lead to a set of several factors: the consequences of shelling, a lack of professional management of water discharge in the conditions of Russian occupation and criminal negligence. Russia, in turn, accuses Ukraine of undermining the dam-this version, however, in principle, does not find any evidence.

Military analysts, for example, the director of the Russian program at the US Navy Center Michael Kofman , call not to rush to the conclusions about whether the damage to the dam was intentional. Indirect evidence is perplexed: the left bank of the Dnieper occupied by Russia is located significantly lower than the right controlled by Ukraine, and the damage from the flood for it will be many times more than for the Kherson and other settlements located opposite. In addition, there is no evidence that the Russian army tried to evacuate in advance from the flood zone of its military.

Analysts of the CONFLICT Intelligence investigation group, who studied satellite pictures of the dam, note that it was destroyed in stages, and pay attention to the previous collapse of the road over the open shutters of the water supply of the hydroelectric power station.

Damage to the road over the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in the satellite picture of Maxar Technologies, made on May 28, 2023

On Wednesday, the Norwegian Scientific Research Foundation Norsar, created in 1968 under the contract between Norway and the United States to fix earthquakes and nuclear explosions, said that its main tool-seismic antenna grille-recorded on June 6, at 2.54 minutes in the Kakhovsky hydroelectric station, corresponding to the explosion and equivalent to the earthquake by force 1-2 points on the Richter scale. On Thursday, the answer to the question of Radio Freedom about whether it is possible to separate the explosion signal from the signal from the signal caused by the destruction of the dam from the flow of water, the Kentin Brissso officer wrote on Twitter that with such a weak seismic signal, it is difficult to talk with confidence about what it was caused. A few hours later, Brissso specified that an additional study allowed his team to come to the conclusion that the explosion was the source of the signal.

Also on Thursday a video of the surviving interior of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, shot from the drone, was published.

At the beginning of 2023, the dean of the Faculty of Biology, Geography and Ecology of the Kherson State University, Doctor of Geographical Sciences Igor Pilipenko published in collaboration with the vice -rector of the university , Daria Boykova , entitled "Kakhovskoye reservoir: the engine of the economy and the theater of military operations" in the OSTEUROPA magazine, dedicated to the political development and culture of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In this article, Pilipenko and Boykov, a few months before the events of June 6, wrote that Russia could deliberately destroy the dam of the Kakhovsky hydroelectric power station - but only when the Russian army will be forced to retreat from the units of the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions of Ukraine. It also notes that if Russia goes to the destruction of the dam, then only after the maximum discharge of water from the reservoir in order to reduce the damage to its occupied territories from a tidal wave.

At the time of the destruction of the dam on the night of June 6, the water level in the Kakhovsky reservoir, on the contrary, was record high: for several months preceding the months, as follows from satellite images, only three gate valves were opened on the damage to the hydroelectric power station, ensuring the discharge of water. Record water levels, which are also caused by a seasonal factor, are confirmed by independent measurements .

Supporters of the theory of the intentional explosion of the dam by Russians urge not to look for logic in the actions of the occupation authorities, appealing to the illogicality of many Russian actions during a full -scale war, including the very decision to start it. Along with this, one more important factor can be noted: the destruction of the dam for many years will deprive the water supply of the Crimea by Dnieper water, since the source of the North Crimean Canal is located right in the new Kakhovka just above the dam. Now, as satellite pictures are shown, the channel has already grinded, and it was the solution to the issue of supplying the peninsula annexed by Russia that Moscow as one of the tasks of the “special military operation”, and immediately after the occupation of the Kherson region, the Russian army really demolished the dams built by Ukrainians, which prevented the flow of water to the channel.

The beginning of the North Crimean Canal in the picture from the cosmos, taken on June 7, 2023

On June 7, the Russian telegram channel "Volya" with reference to an anonymous source in the Russian army wrote that the damage to the dam was planned at the end of this week-but in the process of checking the readiness for it, two sappers accidentally led an explosive device (or devices) ahead of time, having died and not letting the Russians evacuate their military from the flooding zone. Freedom failed to confirm this information from other sources of radio, it is also doubtful of the “verification of readiness” late at night a few days before the planned explosion.

The version that the demolition of the dam could happen, but not then and not as planned, Igor Pilipenko also admits. Radio Liberty talked with him about what preceded the tragedies in the Kherson region, as the cascade of reservoirs on the Dnieper was tripled, what are the consequences of the catastrophe at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in the Ukrainian regions located both down and up from it through the Dnieper, as well as about possible dates and, in principle, about the possibility of restoring normal life in the region in two scenarios - deokucups In the event of Ukraine’s inability to free them, seized by Russia.

"It was necessary to manage the station"

- At the beginning of this year, you indicated that the intentional decrease in the water level in the Kakhovsky reservoir, which was then written about, is preparation for the destruction of the dam, and this destruction will occur when Russia will be forced to abandon the left -bank parts of the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. The available data show that before the breakthrough of the dam, the water level into the reservoir, on the contrary, was record high. How did it happen?

-The water level began to increase somewhere in mid-April. There was a very large flood in the Dnieper Valley, which begins with the Valdai Upland, is formed by a significant part in Belarus and in northern Ukraine. It was thanks to this that the level began to grow sharply. In fact, water level control was carried out by the so-called shandors, which were specially open-and water was discharged. The number of open shutters was not enough to “digest” this flood and drop it downstream, into the lower Dnieper. They simply did not open new shutters to drop water. Moreover, the machine room did not work, so the flow of water exceeded the discharge. As a result, somewhere from 13 meters, the water level reached 17.4–17.5 meters with an ordinary-16 meters.

- Increasing the water level in the Kakhovsky reservoir to record levels was rather natural or artificial?

- For the Kakhovsky reservoir, this is the largest level. The reservoir is in principle an artificial system, and they need to be controlled. There is a Dnieper basin department in Ukraine, because it is the sixth reservoir, before it we have Kiev, Kanevskoye, Kremenchug, Dneprodzerzhinsky reservoirs, the DnieperhES (the former Lake named after Lenin) and the Kakhovskoye reservoir. The entire system is controlled by the basin management. But in order to manage the Kakhovsky reservoir, it was necessary to manage the station. Yes, there are small lifts of water associated with the fact that reservoirs in the spring specially increase the level so that there is a supply for August and September, when the consumption of water is huge, because it is the dryest period, the temperature is high, and the drain of the Dnieper is not enough. During this period, consumption related to agricultural tasks, irrigation was especially large. The fact that of these 15 Sandor, as far as is known, only 3 worked, means that they discarded only one fifth from the possible. There is nothing super -technological, and they could not be destroyed. They worked for 60 years, and worked all the time until October-November last year. Honestly, I always assumed that Russians are reducing the level that, if necessary, the water shaft, which would most affect the left bank controlled by the Russian Federation, was less. The Left Bank suffers more than the right bank, the right bank is high, relatively steep. Relatively speaking, every 10 centimeters of lifting water level in the Dnieper is a flooding of 15 meters deep into the shore on the left bank and only 3 meters on the right. Unfortunately, it so happened that the elimination of the dam occurred in the peak of the level, and even in the historical peak.

Three open Sandora at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in the picture of Maxar Technologies, made on June 5, 2023

"Damn needs both sides"

- You also wrote that this liquidation of the dam will occur when Russia understands that it needs to leave the occupied parts of the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. Does it mean that if this liquidation was the intentional step of Russia that she realized that she would be forced to leave these territories?

- Why this is done now - I honestly do not understand. Maybe there was some kind of excess of the performer. The dam is valuable and needs both sides, and therefore I was always sure that it would be protected. Even those blows that were carried out in the spring, firstly, were done not very powerful weapons, and secondly, they purposefully beat the bridge, which, in general, is a simple design and has nothing to do with the "body" of the dam. The dam was built in the 50s, already in the paradigm of the existence of nuclear weapons, and it is a kind of huge clay brick, sheathed by reinforced concrete. What happened? I still think that there could only be an internal explosion. Why this was done now, I do not understand. There is no reason to leave the Left Bank for the Russian army now. In the time positions of Ukraine, which were created on the islands, in fluids, I, as a resident of Kherson, do not see a threat to Russians. Their real supply is almost impossible, maximum light equipment can be delivered there. I have always been convinced and remain convinced that it was possible to blow up the dam only during the departure, because now the summer period begins and new supply of water through the North Crimean Canal is impossible. And who needs the most now the North Crimean Canal? Of course, it is needed in the spring to fill the reservoirs in the Crimea. No matter how the Crimean authorities say, in fact, the dependence on the Dnieper water was and remains huge.

Substituted Square in front of the House of Culture in New Kakhovka occupied by Russia, June 6, 2023

-According to one of the experts-hydraulic equipment, any dam can be blurred at the expense of the “germ”, when even a small promo is formed, the current water cuts metal, concrete, anything. Could this promoter not form because of the explosion?

- Representatives of Ukrhydroenergo say that this could not be. It can be said that the flow of water was huge. If we calculate the drop in the water level in the Kakhovsky reservoir, then 4.5-5 cubic kilometers of water resulted from it per day. This is approximately one ninth annual runoff of the entire Dnieper. Of course, such a hellish stream could simply "finish" the dams injured by the primary explosion.

"Everything was in the hands of Russia"

- In whose hands was the control of the dam and all the systems associated with it? A year ago, in May 2022, the Ukrainian authorities already accused Russia of uncontrolled discharge of water from the Kakhovsky reservoir.

- Everything was in the hands of Russia. It was possible, relatively speaking, to call the right people on the other side and say: "Now the masters will come and open Sandora and you will not shoot." You can always agree. In this system, everything is closely connected, pulled there - it got out here. Therefore, in fact, a basin control was created, which followed many parameters. After the occupation, Ukraine could control the level of water in only one way - without dumping water from the upper Dnieper. But we can’t not discard at all, because the Dnieper is flowing, and the water needs to be discarded first from the Kyiv reservoir, from Kyiv it will get to Kanevskoye, from Kanevsky to Kremenchug, from Kremenchug to Dneprodzerzhinskoye, then to the Dneprges, then to Kakhovskoye. It is necessary to discard, water flows, the Dnieper is a large river.

- Is it possible to draw parallels between the discharges of the water a year ago, when the new Kakhovka was also flooded with what is happening now?

- Yes, but on a small scale, because there were natural processes. The question is how we control them. May in the Kakhovsky reservoir is a peak of a flood, the peak of water, which has already passed through the entire Dnieper Valley and ran to us. During this period, there is a large discharge through Sandorah, a large amount of electricity is produced. At the same time, the construction of the carpentry is such that the whole of the 2019th, 2020s, 2021 years, there was intensely talking that it was necessary to cut another machine room on the right bank of the Dnieper and make the Kakhovskaya GESS-2, as it was made on Dneprogese so that it worked at a time when there was a lot of water, and the water was not only dumped past the hydraulic units, but walked through them. In addition, in normal conditions in April, an event occurs annually, which is called the "solemn launch of water in the North Crimean Canal." The North Crimean Canal is seasonal, it works only from spring to autumn, the rest of the time it is dry. Everything is prepared during the winter, and in April, water is launched. He takes 4 cubic kilometers to drive them to Kerch through the main and regional channels. We can say that in this complex balance of reset and consumption everything was violated, which led to gigantic fluctuations in the water level in the reservoir - from 13.8 to 17.5 meters. 3.7 meters is just a huge volume.

-If it was a deliberate undermining, can we ever see some of his traces of this on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station?

- I think no. Water quickly destroys everything. Everything will be so deformed, it seems to me that we will not install anything. Unless some fresh video will appear, which so far "adhere to."

- Can damage to buildings at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station be caused by an explosion or, on the contrary, they correspond to destruction from the flow of water?

-Of course, at first something was destroyed, and then huge pieces went, the avalanche of debris went, all this was simply suffered, and now it will lie in the lower pool, destroyed, deformed, and we will never install anything. The machine room is still formally worth it. He is crumpled, he is deformed, but he stands. Blot there could be carried out only at the location of the hydraulic units. He is “crawling”, and I think that if the water is flowing, then it “wraps up” the dam and the machine room is overturned.

"Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their work"

- Before moving on to the question of the consequences, I want to ask: what precedents in world history can we compare the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovsky hydroelectric power station?

- First of all, the blows of English aviation come to my mind, very technological, special jumping bombs, along the dams on the Rhine. Rhine was a Ruhr zone, the basis of the German economy and engineering, so such a decision was made. There were huge damage, dams were broken, cities were flooded, settlements and enterprises were left without water, and water is needed for engineering, metallurgy, and so on.

In the case of the dam, I honestly see such a meaning. Around the Kakhovsky reservoir, a specific world was actually formed, which is tied to water in a dry steppe. Firstly, the question arises about the water supply of the Priazov region. There, water comes from the Kakhovsky magistral canal, not North Crimean. Now it is actually closed. The machine room, which lifted water to a height of about 30 meters and distributed further through the system, was destroyed. There will be no water in the Kakhovsky channel. То есть такие города, как Мелитополь, Бердянск, а это самые крупные города Приазовья после Мариуполя, все населенные пункты между ними фактически останутся без питьевой воды. Не будет работать Приазовский канал специальный водовод на Бердянск. Кроме того, многие населенные пункты вдоль каналов использовали эту воду для технологических нужд. Часть городов, например Никополь, крупный металлургический центр Украины, где находится ферросплавный завод, тоже может остаться без воды.

Следующий удар – это большой канал Днепр – Кривой Рог. Официально он называется "Днепр–Кривбас" и снабжает водой Криворожский бассейн. Он начинается на границе Херсонской и Днепропетровской области, у села Марьинское, фактически на границе этих двух областей, и снабжает водой 700-тысячный Кривой Рог, в том числе его металлургические предприятия. Криворожский бассейн – это крупнейший центр добычи железной руды в Европе. Что касается Запорожской АЭС, там пока можно работать в автономном режиме, ничего хорошего, но прямой угрозы нету. Если уровень Каховского водохранилища упадет гораздо ниже 10 метров, то вообще прекратится подача воды в Северо-Крымский канал. Выпадут огромные зоны орошения, а из орошаемых останутся только небольшие регионы вокруг так называемого природного региона Алешковские пески, там специфическая гидрогеологическая ситуация, огромные песчаные массивы, вода просачивается сквозь песок, формируя водоносные горизонты, очень чистая, низкой минерализации. В остальных районах среднее годовое количество осадков – 350 миллиметров при испаряемости 1000–1100, там все очень быстро высохнет, фактически за один сезон, нельзя будет выращивать традиционные массовые овощные культуры и некоторые технические, такие как соя, которая очень хорошо идет на внешний рынок, потому что это не только продукты питания, но и технологическое сырье, и корм скоту. Соя – очень большой кусок экспорта Украины. Не будет выращиваться лук. Высокотехнологичные предприятия по выращиванию лука давали урожай 100 тонн с гектара. Это просто потрясающие цифры.

В сентябре 2022 года российские войска уже наносили удары по дамбе на Карачуновском водохранилище под Кривым Рогом, что также вызвало подтопление нескольких районов города

Наконец, орошение – это занятость людей. По прогнозам, работу потеряют 150-200 тысяч людей только в Херсонской области. Там работает фактор мультипликационного эффекта, который обычно описывается для городов, но он работает и в сельской местности. Возникают магазины, магазины – это новые рабочие места, это доставки, это какие-то новые сервисы. Сейчас села будут очень быстро деградировать, потому что у них выбивается фундаментальная экономическая база, база их существования. Мы вернемся в ситуацию, которая существовала много-много лет назад. Чтобы вы понимали, после создания системы орошения села в Каховском районе выросли в 3,4 раза. Теперь население должно будет сократиться фактически вдвое.

– Это касается и правого, и левого берега?

– Это касается прежде всего левого берега, на правом берегу не очень большие массивы орошаемых земель. Они имеют очень специфические источники воды, это была местная вода, ее поднимали с Каховского водохранилища электричеством на высоту 40–50 метров. Поэтому эти районы проигрывали в конкуренции региону Северо-Крымского канала, где вода бежала самотеком. Области орошения на правом берегу – это прежде всего радиус около 40 километров вокруг Херсона. Там оросительные системы питались от речки Ингулец, это последний большой правый приток Днепра, на котором в июле, августе и сентябре были очень большие бои. Там вода очень плохого качества, ее постоянно пытались разбавлять чем-то, она высокоминерализированная. В норме ею в принципе нельзя было поливать. Вот эти районы орошения на стыке Херсонской и Николаевской области еще будут работать.

Обмелевший Северо-Крымский канал, 2014 год

"Новую плотину можно построить за три года"

– Если суммировать, то из ныне контролируемых Украиной территорий больше всего пострадает Кривбас и его промышленность, а из оккупированных Россией – орошаемая зона на левом берегу Днепра.

– И питьевое водоснабжение, прежде всего Приазовья. Кроме того, скорее всего, придется сворачивать восстановленное в том году орошение в степном Крыму. Были сообщения [главы аннексированного Крыма Сергея] Аксенова, что орошение восстановлено, что это очень важно. Теперь все это дело нужно сворачивать.

– Сколько времени потребуется на восстановление всей этой системы с учетом двух сценариев: Украина возвращает себе контроль над всеми территориями Запорожской и Херсонской областей или оказывается не в состоянии его вернуть?

– Первый сценарий позитивный, на который мы все надеемся. "Укргидроэнерго" заявляет, что новая плотина будет построена за три года, и я в принципе в это верю, потому что инфраструктура вокруг создана, стройки сейчас отличаются от тех, которые существовали в начале 50-х годов с огромным количеством ручного труда. До технического уровня водохранилище можно заполнить даже за один год. Все будет зависеть от того, насколько оно будет спущено и от того, насколько мы себе сможем позволить не сбрасывать воду в нижний Днепр. Если мы накапливаем воду в водохранилище, мы ее в этот момент не сбрасываем. Но это не стратегические, а технологические тонкости.

В случае негативного сценария, естественно, ничего восстановить будет нельзя. Потому что Новая Каховка, плотина – это "суперточка", от которой зависит все. Она создала водохранилище, водохранилище создало каналы, условия для их существования. Не будет орошения не будет поставок питьевой воды. Будет вот ситуация 30-50-х годов прошлого века: редкое, малочисленное население, редкие села, привозная вода.