PMC "Wagner" against the army of Russia

On the evening of June 23, the head of the Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin began an armed rebellion against the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

On the night of Friday to Saturday, Wagner's mercenaries entered Rostov-on-Don and took control of military facilities.

On the morning of Saturday, militants entered Voronezh. The city is burning with an oil depot, according to a shot down aircraft. The governor said that a counter -terrorist operation is being performed in the region.

In Rostov, PMC mines the streets.

PMC "Wagner" is moving towards Moscow. The hinted columns are seen in the Lipetsk region. A number of roads were blocked in the Rostov, Voronezh, Moscow, Tula regions, as well as a message on the Moscow River.

Military experts surveyed by “important stories” told how the armed confrontation of PMC fighters and regular army might look.

What resources do the Ministry of Defense have to fight the Wagner PMC?

Kirill Mikhailov, independent analyst

We do not know the exact picture about the involved forces and means on either side. But the Ministry of Defense, in principle, should have enough resources that are in the reserve and are intended to reflect possible Ukrainian breakthroughs. There should be enough armored vehicles, ammunition, and so on. The question is in the degree of readiness of the military, given that many of them can be mobilized or even more freaks.

Prigozhin claims that his mercenaries have already disarmed some conscripts in the Rostov region and [did not meet resistance] from the military and border guards at the Bugaevka border station in the Voronezh region.

A significant advantage of the Ministry of Defense is aviation, although, according to some reports, not everyone is ready to comply with orders. As some telegram channels wrote, helicopters were flying and strokes on wagns had to be more senior officers, because ordinary pilots, [ according to Prigozhin], refused. The advantage of aviation is also limited by the fact that it does not have enough high -precision ammunition, so it is quite difficult to use aircraft. In general, the Ministry of Defense should have enough strength and means to stop the threat that we see at the moment.

Is it possible to connect the police or the Russian Guard? I do not think that they can steadfastly resist the Wagnerians.

Jan Matveev, military expert

If we take precisely pure PMCs, and not those who could join them, then, of course, the Russian army will have enough resources [to suppress PMCs].

The confrontation between PMCs and the regular army may look like a combined arms battle. Because both of them have weapons for a full -fledged combined arms fight. But so far it looks like the rather chaotic actions of the Russian security forces. We do not see any actions from the Russian army. And Prigozhin columns are practically unhindered. All this already looks like a small civil war. Without some large front, because no one, of course, has so much strength to lay a whole front in Russian territory, millions of soldiers need it. Rather, [it will be as] in Afghanistan, in Syria: there are individual military formations, the columns of the Wagnerians are now from themselves, and clashes are in place against them. And the Wagnerians do not have any control over a large territory. Does the Russian army have control, this is a controversial issue.

Probably, the Russian army will try to use some reserves, those military personnel who are now not participating in the war directly. Different divisions remain in the country, perhaps they are already traveling from the North and the Far East, plus border guards. But there are few of them, and they cannot be completely removed. The concept of Russian defense does not imply that there will be no troops on the borders. Therefore, basically, I think, the Rosgvardists will now be blocked. Kadyrov, it seems, is going to connect his Kadyrovites. Let's see how it will look.

Former Russian military located in Voronezh

There are a lot of military in Voronezh, there is a large airfield on which there is everything that is needed. As far as I understand, our 20th combined arms army , which is located in Voronezh along with flyers [military aviation pilots], decided to drown further for the government. There are military people, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB - in general, all this shelupon is also here. But the most active guys are now at the front. Plus, the entire elite part of the army was leaked at the very beginning [a full-scale invasion of Ukraine] These Dolboye generals when they threw everyone on meat. Then the most effective, combat -ready units were leaked. And here were those who are beating women and children at rallies. Now we will see what they are capable of when they are already in front of them with trunks.

What resources do the Wagner PMC have?

Kirill Mikhailov, independent analyst

We see that so far there are a maximum of two or three assault detachments of Wagner directly on the territory of the Russian Federation, which had the number to about about the battalion ( up to 500 people - approx. Ed. ). At least those 25 thousand people we spoke of Prigozhin are not yet observed. If Russian aviation begins to bomb from a low altitude, then the Wagner PMC has a certain amount of air defense systems, the same PARK “PAPIRA”, which may have been used to bring helicopters in the Voronezh region.

I think that the only way to get ammunition for Wagnerians is to capture them in one way or another. If they manage to disarm some Russian units, if they turn out to be a sufficiently low moral spirit to surrender weapons, then they will be able to take ammunition from them. But this is all, of course, a very unreliable source. Therefore, if the Wagnerians want to achieve [the disarmament of Russian units], they should act as quickly as possible, because in the long run the situation does not play in their favor.

Jan Matveev, military expert

PMCs expect the military to go over to their side with ammunition. And this, firstly, will reduce the number of battles, that is, the expense of ammunition will not be so large. They have already captured the anti -aircraft complexes "Prank", which will cover them from aviation.

And secondly, apparently, they will try to capture military warehouses. Plus for a short time, for a week or two of not very intense combat clashes, of course, they have enough ammunition-those that are already there now.

Former Russian military located in Voronezh

I know the military well, who remained here [in Voronezh], and their ideology. They can actually cooperate people, and there are many parts around Voronezh, and some of them can side with Wagner. Because there are a lot of military men, especially immigrants from elite units, who are against the army. Moreover, they are for the war [with Ukraine], but against the Ministry of Defense.

The balance of power is difficult to assess. It is not clear how much Zhenya is real [Evgenia Prigozhin], how much here we have. Wagner initially had a lot of mercenaries. Even during the campaign in Ukraine there are enough of them to work in other countries (I personally communicate with such guys). 25 thousand people [from the PMC, if this is true] is not some rally where 25 thousand people came out. These are 25 thousand people trained, with technology, know the area and what and how to do. They are able to sit down in the city for a long time and it will be tough.

What else is important? Preparation of mercenaries, equipment, provision, discipline - all this is much better for them, more serious than in the army. There is no one as in the army: you have come and are treated to you as a cockyss for some, they are preparing people there. And how many more sleeping cells in the country? PMC veterans - those who were released, even the same prisoners who returned from PMCs.

Even if there were a thousand well -armed, trained and equipped mercenaries, get them to the city - you can arrange such a mess! To capture, undermine, diversions to arrange. And they, all the more, have good coordination and people on experience. And all the army remained at the front.

Even now look at the video how fortifications and machine gun points are being built in Moscow. They are not even aware that the firing point must be plugged, and not just put the bags of sand! She will simply be swept away even from a simple machine gun and that’s all, and I’m not talking about any large-kaliberk or infantry fighting vehicle.

Can the Wagner PMC move to Moscow?

Kirill Mikhailov, independent analyst

The farther the Wagnerians manage to retire from the so -called zone, from the occupied territories, the less trained troops will be in their way. Probably, they are guided by this, moving towards Voronezh and Moscow. The conditional checkpoint on the highway, of course, will not stop them if the tanks are not delivered there if the fortifications are not erected there. Plus, in the central part of Russia, a fairly branched network of roads, blocking them all is almost impossible. Therefore, the Wagnerians as a whole will be able to move on. Plus, they have fuel supplyers in columns, which will also allow them to advance.

Now the Russian aerospace forces (VKS), as they say , are trying to beat on the routes by uncontrolled bombs in order to bring them unusable and prevent the Wagnerians from advance. This generally suggests that it is difficult for them to stop Wagner with some more classic methods. Perhaps they will need an extra time to prepare a meeting for the Wagnerians if they go to Moscow.

Jan Matveev, military expert

PMCs can move along the tracks towards Moscow. Will they be shelling? Russian aircraft is not only famous for the ability to beat someone for sure. And under shelling it is possible to move. Plus, of course, civilian can still remain on these tracks. There you still need to make a decision, use weapons or not use. In the end, we do not know what is happening now in the heads of Russian generals and in the field. Maybe Shoigu will order to shell the track, and the general at the airfield will decide to boycott this order.

How will the conflict affect the situation at the front?

Kirill Mikhailov, independent analyst

Now Russia has involved [for counterattacks in Ukraine] about two or three of those 12 brigades that were prepared to repel counterattack, which has not yet entered into force. The onslaught of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can intensify several times, and then the forces will be needed in other directions. It should be borne in mind that ammunition is still needed to reflect the counterattack of the Russian army. And at the same time, the Ministry of Defense needs to be prioritized. It is not yet clear how quickly they will be able to transfer some forces to the fight against PMCs.

Jan Matveev, military expert

Now the Russian command reduces attention to the front. This can bring problems because the necessary decisions will not be made on time.

It is possible that in the most critical situation, the Russian command will remove some parts from the front and send them to suppress this rebellion, and Ukrainians will use it. If the [armed rebellion] will last several days at least, then they will decide on reducing the front, on retreat to the borders of the Crimea, Mariupol, in order to release forces for the analysis within the country. Perhaps [the development of the situation] up to the complete collapse of the front, because either the military will go over to the side of the Wagnerians, or they will leave, because the civil war is going on at home, what is we doing here [in Ukraine]?