First rebellion in a hundred years

The Prigozhin mutiny, despite its half-heartedness and unpreparedness, is a severe blow to Putin’s reputation. Kremlin trolls insist that tomorrow everything will be ok. Alas for them - it won’t be! The most prepared armed formation got out of control (which we have all been waiting for a long time). The Kremlin thieves have even gotten to the bandits.

The most important thing was Prigozhin’s speech, where he repeated word for word what we, the anti-war opposition, have been saying since the beginning of the war: the purpose of the war is theft, the official reason for the war (NATO’s preparation for an attack on Russia) is bullshit. The army was destroyed by the hands of a thieve around Putin; it cannot defeat Ukraine. The real enemy is not in Kyiv, but in Moscow. And this is what Putin’s most faithful guardsman says to HIS audience.

What we can do to help our country now is to help people hear Prigozhin while he is telling the truth (it’s terrible what I’m saying!). And if he goes to Moscow, stop him. Help the devil if he decided to oppose this regime! Because there is no crime worse than starting an aggressive war. If one criminal is ready to interfere with another, this is not the time to turn his face - now we need to help, and then, if necessary, we will fight with this one. And this is just the beginning...

Until now, Prigozhin fought as if with one hand. Having actually launched a military coup - that is, taking a political action - he demonstratively declared non-political goals. Give me Shoigu and Gerasimov, I will punish them and return to the front. Sorry, but why go to the front? You yourself declared the war illegitimate, and said that neither NATO nor Ukraine intended to attack Russia or the Donbass. You yourself said that for 8 years Putin’s oligarchs shamelessly plundered this very Donbass. So what is the point of this war? To capture more of this Donbass, so that they have something to plunder further?

The internal illogicality of Prigozhin’s position greatly weakens his chances. You can't fight with one hand. You cannot implement a political project without setting political goals. You cannot declare a war illegitimate and at the same time declare your readiness to participate in it.

Good political economists, like astrophysicists, do not need to see the object of study up close to understand it well. If Prigogine and Co. had read our theory of degenerate dictatorship, they would not have been surprised that Putin chose not the dismissal of two loyal assholes from his entourage, but a full-fledged civil war.

It is interesting that the system reacts, on the one hand, very quickly - not only was everyone put on alert, but the CTO regime was announced in three regions, and the president made an appeal. On the other hand, not as the situation requires, but as we’re used to: let’s talk and produce more pieces of paper. The president’s message is very pitiful: let’s unite, we are brothers, we are doing the same thing. In the meantime, it seems that it is becoming clear that few people are interested in fighting with Ukraine; it is much more interesting to deal with each other.

In general, what is happening clearly exposes the popular myth that the more autocracy and centralization, the more order. The association of autocracy and stability is the most false one that ever exists.

As always happens, the creator of the Golem thinks that it can be stopped, and therefore he makes it more and more convincing in order to effectively scare others with the scarecrow. Until it turns out that Golem himself believed in himself. Although the focus is now on the advance of units of the Wagner PMC towards Moscow, Prigozhin’s main rebellion is unfolding in rhetorical space. The mutiny has already dealt a crushing blow to Putin's war because it is criticized not in the language of liberal opponents of the war, but in the language of its supporters. Analogies with 1917, which have been simmering for a long time, are now rising to their full height.

The Russian state is beginning to fall apart before our eyes. There hasn't been a military mutiny of this magnitude (of any scale) since the Civil War. And it was the dictator himself, the guarantor of stability, who created this banana turbulence. First, in defiance of the law prohibiting mercenarism, he creates a poorly controlled armed structure. He finances it with some kind of left-wing, unaccountable income. Allows you to recruit criminals there. Silently watches as the huge gang becomes more and more “untied.”

All this is happening against the backdrop of the dictator’s personal war, launched by him solely to comb his ego. Silent Russia, with her head pressed into her shoulders, watches as the captain cheerfully leads the ship towards the iceberg. This is how empires fall apart - from time immemorial, since ancient Rome.

But let’s not go too far in search of historical parallels. I will list three similar Russian military rebellions from a century ago - with three very different outcomes. Everything will apparently go according to one of these three scenarios.

1. Kornilov rebellion in August 1917. The supreme power in the person of Kerensky itself created in the commander-in-chief the feeling that he was the only savior of the fatherland, fueled patriotic hysteria - and backed off when the formidable general moved the “Wild Division” to the capital. As now, the rebellion began in the region, which predetermined its collapse. It was enough to block communications, and the campaign against the capital failed. The times were still herbivorous, so the rebel was simply put under arrest.

2. The mutiny of the commander of the Eastern Front, Socialist Revolutionary Mikhail Muravyov, in July 1918. It happened due to the fact that the commander in chief was outraged by the Bolshevik massacre of his fellow party members and because of dissatisfaction with the Brest-Litovsk Treaty. The Bolsheviks, unlike the Provisional Government, did not breed Tsirlich-Manirlichs. They simply shot Muravyov.

3. The mutiny of the commander of the Don Corps of the Red Army, Philip Mironov, in September 1919. As now, the rebellion did not aim to change power in the country and in every possible way declared loyalty to Lenin. As now, the rebels declared the Minister of War (People's Commissar) Trotsky to be a pest enemy. It ended peacefully: the corps was persuaded, and it again began to obey orders, and Mironov was promoted to army commander. (Then, however, they shot me anyway).

We will soon see what scenario the Prigozhin putsch will follow. In any case, there are no coups as a result of such escapades.

Something completely exceptional is happening. The leader of several tens of thousands of bandits, armed by Putin to create a counterbalance to the constitutional power structures (as many tyrants did), announced a campaign against these power structures. And this is during a difficult and, for Putin, obviously failed war.

Prigogine is not crazy. At first glance, the forces are not at all equal. But this is at first glance. Prigozhin decided on an armed rebellion, clearly having an agreement with some powerful security forces in Russia. He has a fifth column, if he himself is not such a fifth column for these forces.

He declared his goal - the transformation of Russia into a greater North Korea, the destruction of the fat "Rublyovka" and the creation of a military dictatorship. The war in Ukraine will almost certainly be forgotten. Ahead is a war for Russia. Its actors tonight are not yet clear.

We weren't expecting a war in Europe? “By the grace of Putin, she goes.” Have we thought about a new civilian one? “She came close to us. Only so far no one except bandits is visible in it. Two gangs - the one that has ruled Russia for a hundred years (VChK-KGB) and the “socially close elements” vying for power - are ready to clash. Incredible for the average person - usually for the historian. But the outcome of such a clash can never be predicted.

In his address, Putin slyly keeps silent about the fact that he is the main inspirer and organizer of this rebellion. He pulled Prigozhin to him, pulling him out from the very bottom, he approved an unprecedented experiment in creating a gigantic private army by a former criminal while maintaining criminal liability for mercenarism, he went into the astral plane and for several months did not interfere in the monstrous quarrel between Prigozhin and the generals. Putin brewed, boiled and poured this whole mess on himself. His position looks as ambiguous as Gorbachev’s behavior in front of Foros. He was waiting for something, but something went wrong and in the wrong direction.

Alexander Baunov, editor-in-chief of Carnegie Politika: “Mussolini’s march on Rome has something to do with this”

Mussolini's March on Rome is related to the Prigozhin case. Many people remember it as a march of some fascists. In reality, it was a march of angry soldiers who joined the ranks of the fascists. On his way to power, Mussolini found the right words and the right group to address with them: hundreds of thousands of people who had returned from the First World War. They returned not to prosperity, but to the hardships of everyday earnings, for which they had to compete with those who did not fight for any homeland.

Many of these returning men felt that their homeland had not paid them extra. The country, although it was in the camp of the winners, received less in the form of the fruits of victory than was declared as the goals of the war. Therefore, it seemed that the homeland was not paid extra either. And the culprits are rear rats, generals, corrupt officials, fat rich people, corrupt politicians. Those returning from the war felt like bearers of a special trench truth, which gave them the right to remake society and establish justice.

Mussolini correctly formulated and nourished this feeling, speaking of “trenchocracy”, that the country should be governed by those who have been under fire. In contrast to the racial theories of the future German allies, the basis of Italian fascism was a much simpler, instinctive, almost bestial anti-elitism, which the future leader was able to feel, formulate and use. Then they managed to take Rome, and then the number of people in the trenches went into the millions.

The likelihood of a successful rebellion in the sense of overthrowing Putin personally in the coming weeks/months is extremely low, but not zero. The likelihood of a successful rebellion in the form of some kind of compromise agreements, providing for some kind of concessions to Prigozhin and refusal to arrest him right now, is somewhat higher. However, after all that has been said, long-term coexistence between Prigozhin and the system is hardly possible. He will either be killed/imprisoned afterwards, or part of the compromise should be his free exit from the country. The most likely solution to the “Prigozhin problem” is a forceful solution. Either in the form of a targeted strike/arrest by comrades, or in the form of a real military operation.

If you look further. The chances of a major success in the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, in general, Ukraine’s chances of regaining all territories by military means have increased noticeably. The fate of the regime will be decided not by the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but by the Russian security elite. However, if the front collapses now, the likelihood of a collapse will increase.

In the scenario of suppressing the rebellion, the speed of tightening the screws in Russia will noticeably increase. And primarily in relation to turbo-patriots, and not opponents of war. Serious purges and repressions among the security forces are inevitable. The split between Putin and extreme patriots will intensify.

Putin's personal power and ability to control the situation will be seriously weakened. He demonstrated a weakness that both the people and the elites would notice. “Strong leaders” do not have rebellions and are not denied help by neighbors who are considered vassals. Among the elites, all this is aggravated by the fact that everyone knows that it was Putin who nurtured Wagner, Prigozhin - Putin’s mistake, obvious to everyone.

And here are the statistics on Putin’s chances of retaining power. Since the end of the Cold War, leaders of countries that have been in power for 20 years or more have been overthrown only 10% of the time. And among those over 65 years old - not a single one. An analysis of the fate of the leaders who lost/won the war in 1919–2003 shows that the chance of a leader who lost a war he started to lose power in the first year after the loss is 38.8%. That is, the majority of those who lose an aggressive war keep it. The probability of losing power is approaching 50% in only 4 years. Moreover, these statistics include various types of Hitlers who were not overthrown by their own citizens. The real percentage of those overthrown from within as a result of losing an aggressive war is less than 25%.

However, Putin has already managed, under extremely favorable conditions, to pointlessly quarrel with the whole world, so perhaps he will be able to overcome the extremely favorable statistics.

Coup. No. There are no prerequisites for success. Relax.